Eeyore's News and View

Germany drags eurozone faster into slump
The recession in the eurozone intensified markedly in the first quarter, dragged down by an almost 4 per cent contraction in the German economy.Gross domestic product in the 16-country region fell by a much larger-than-expected 2.5 per cent in the period – outpacing the US slowdown – according to official data released on Friday. The contraction deepened what was already the worst recession in continental Europe since the second world war. The final quarter of 2008 had seen a 1.6 per cent fall in GDP.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/559213f8-411d-11de-bdb7-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2F559213f8-411d-11de-bdb7-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fworld

Hong Kong suffers record contraction
By Xi Chen and Reuters in Hong Kong
Published: May 15 2009 14:40 | Last updated: May 15 2009 14:40
Hong Kong’s economy contracted at the fastest rate since the Asian financial crisis in the first three months of this year as exports passing through the territory saw their biggest drop in more than half a century.
The government on Friday predicted gross domestic product would contract by up to 6.5 per cent this year, after announcing the economy had shrunk at an annual rate of 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2009.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d3bff08c-4141-11de-bdb7-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fd3bff08c-4141-11de-bdb7-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fworld

US prices fall most since 1955
By Alan Rappeport in New York
Published: May 15 2009
Prices in the US fell in the year to April at the fastest annual rate since 1955, labour department figures showed on Friday, as declining energy prices pulled back the cost of living.
Separately on Friday official figures showed that US industrial output slid again in April, but at a more modest pace than in prior months, and consumer confidence rose in May to the highest level seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September.
Consumer prices fell by 0.7 per cent over the year to April and were flat from March due to sagging prices of petrol, electricity and food. Slumping prices have lessened pressure on consumers who have seen their wealth and employment savaged by the recession.
But core prices, which exclude food and energy and are the measure by which economists judge the risk of general deflation, rose by 0.3 per cent from March and were 1.9 per cent higher than in April 2008. More than 40 per cent of the monthly increase, however, was due to a 9.3 per cent jump in the price of tobacco which has been driven by a government tax that recently took effect.
Energy prices fell by 2.5 per cent in April and have plunged by 25.2 per cent during the last 12 months. The annual rate of inflation is expected to bottom this summer because they will be compared with the year before when petrol prices peaked, said Mike Englund, an economist at Action Economics. Housing, food and apparel prices were all down last month, while the cost of education and medical care rose.
The results on Friday were in line with analysts’ expectations. Economists remain divided about whether price inflation or deflation remains a persistent risk. Although consumers have benefited from lower prices, the expectation of falling prices can lead to a deflationary trap.
Such fears were stoked after prices were flat or declined during the final five months of 2008. As the economic recession deepened in the second half of last year companies slashed prices to clear stocks.
The Federal Reserve has said it remains “focused like a laser beam” on finding ways to stimulate the economy that do not fuel inflation. Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, said earlier this month that he was working on plans to avert inflation in the event that recent tentative signs of economic stabilisation morph into recovery. He has maintained that inflation is likely to remain low during the next two years and that a rate of 2 per cent would be a healthy target.
“The broad inflation debate is a tussle between those who focus on the disinflationary forces resulting from a startling increase in spare capacity, and those with a visceral inflation fear,” said Alan Ruskin, strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital.
Friday’s report follows figures on Thursday which showed that US wholesale prices rose last month. The producer price index for finished goods rose by 0.3 per cent in April from previous month, but has fallen by 3.7 per cent year-on-year, the biggest annual drop since 1950.
Separately on Friday, the Federal Reserve said that US industrial production dropped in April for the sixth month running, falling by 0.5 per cent. The decline was slower than the 1.7 per cent fall the month before, but industrial output has now plummeted by 12.5 per cent during the last year on weak factory and manufacturing output as global demand has continued to erode.
Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that much of the strength in April’s industrial output was due to a 1.4 per cent rebound in motor vehicle output. This is likely to be reversed in May, he said, due to the idling of plants caused by the Chrysler bankruptcy.
Meanwhile, the capacity utilisation rate, a measure of the proportion of plants in use, across all industries fell from 68.1 per cent to 67.9 percent, the lowest level since records began in 1967.
In spite of the mixed results, signs that the economic crisis may be starting to turn a corner have left consumers feeling less gloomy. According to the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment, confidence rose in May for the third straight month. The index is up from 65.1 in April to 67.9 this month, leaving behind the record low reached last November, and was fuelled by improved expectations about the future of the economy.
“The apocalyptic tone to public discourse on the economy is steadily abating,” Mr Englund said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/854d81ce-40c1-11de-8f18-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

Mohamed ElBaradei warns of new nuclear age
The number of potential nuclear weapons states could more than double in a few years unless the major powers take radical steps towards disarmament, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog has warned.
In a Guardian interview, Mohamed ElBaradei said the threat of proliferation was particularly grave in the Middle East, a region he described as a "ticking bomb".
ElBaradei, the outgoing director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said the current international regime limiting the spread of nuclear weapons was in danger of falling apart under its own inequity. "Any regime … has to have a sense of fairness and equity and it is not there," he said in an interview at his offices in Vienna.
He has presided over the IAEA for more than 11 years and is due to retire in November at the age of 67. A bitter diplomatic battle is under way over his successor.
The IAEA director general is the custodian of a global arms control regime that is increasingly beleaguered. It was built around the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT) and the goal of restricting membership of the nuclear club to five postwar powers. It has been under strain in the last four decades, with Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea developing weapons outside the NPT. But now ElBaradei says the system is in danger of collapse, with an abrupt spread in nuclear weapons technology.
"We still live in a world where if you have nuclear weapons, you are buying power, you are buying insurance against attack. That is not lost on those who do not have nuclear weapons, particularly in [conflict] regions."
He predicted that the next wave of proliferation would involve "virtual nuclear weapons states", who can produce plutonium or highly enriched uranium and possess the knowhow to make warheads, but who stop just short of assembling a weapon. They would therefore remain technically compliant with the NPT while being within a couple of months of deploying and using a nuclear weapon.
"This is the phenomenon we see now and what people worry about in Iran. And this phenomenon goes much beyond Iran. Pretty soon … you will have nine weapons states and probably another 10 or 20 virtual weapons states." ElBaradei pointed to the spread of uranium enrichment technology around the world, but he was most concerned about the Middle East.
"When you see a lot of concern about the Middle East, it's a result of people feeling totally repressed by their own government and feeling unjustly treated by the outside world. This combination makes it a ticking bomb."
ElBaradei described the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a terrorist group as the greatest threat facing the world, and pointed to the rise of the Taliban in Pakistan: "We are worried because there is a war in a country with nuclear weapons. We are worried because we still have 200 cases of illicit trafficking of nuclear material a year reported to us."
He argued that the only way back from the nuclear abyss was for the established nuclear powers to fulfil their NPT obligations and disarm as rapidly as possible. He said it was essential to generate momentum in that direction before the NPT comes up for review next April in New York. "There's a lot of work to be done but there are a lot of things we can do right away," ElBaradei said. "Slash the 27,000 warheads we have, 95% of which are in Russia and the US. You can easily slash [the arsenals] to 1,000 each, or even 500."
Only deep strategic cuts, coupled with internationally agreed bans on nuclear tests and on the production of weapons-grade fissile material, could restore the world's faith in arms control, he argued.
"If some of this concrete action is taken before the NPT [conference], you would have a completely different environment. All these so-called virtual weapons states, or virtual wannabe weapons states, will think twice … because then the major powers will have the moral authority to go after them and say: 'We are doing our part of the bargain. Now it is up to you.' "
ElBaradei won global fame – and the Nobel peace prize for himself and his agency – by standing up to the Bush and Blair governments over claims of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. His relationships with the Obama administration, and to some extent the Brown government, are better, since both have embraced banning nuclear weapons. Obama has started talks with Moscow on mutual cuts in arsenals.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/14/elbaradei-nuclear-weapons-states-un

The pandemic of 1918-1919 occurred in three waves
Influenza Strikes
http://1918.pandemicflu.gov/the_pandemic/01.htm
Throughout history, influenza viruses have mutated and caused pandemics or global epidemics. In 1890, an especially virulent influenza pandemic struck, killing many Americans. Those who survived that pandemic and lived to experience the 1918 pandemic tended to be less susceptible to the disease.
From Kansas to Europe and Back Again:
Where did the 1918 influenza come from? And why was it so lethal?
In 1918, the Public Health Service had just begun to require state and local health departments to provide them with reports about diseases in their communities. The problem? Influenza wasn't a reportable disease.
But in early March of 1918, officials in Haskell County in Kansas sent a worrisome report to the Public Health Service. Although these officials knew that influenza was not a reportable disease, they wanted the federal government to know that ?18 cases of influenza of a severe type? had been reported there.
By May, reports of severe influenza trickled in from Europe. Young soldiers, men in the prime of life, were becoming ill in large numbers. Most of these men recovered quickly but some developed a secondary pneumonia of ?a most virulent and deadly type.?
Within two months, influenza had spread from the military to the civilian population in Europe. From there, the disease spread outward? to Asia, Africa, South America and, back again, to North America.
Wave After Wave:
In late August, the influenza virus probably mutated again and epidemics now erupted in three port cities: Freetown, Sierra Leone; Brest, France, and Boston, Massachusetts.
In Boston, dockworkers at Commonwealth Pier reported sick in massive numbers during the last week in August. Suffering from fevers as high as 105 degrees, these workers had severe muscle and joint pains. For most of these men, recovery quickly followed. But 5 to 10% of these patients developed severe and massive pneumonia. Death often followed.
Public health experts had little time to register their shock at the severity of this outbreak. Within days, the disease had spread outward to the city of Boston itself. By mid-September, the epidemic had spread even further with states as far away as California, North Dakota, Florida and Texas reporting severe epidemics.
The Unfolding of the Pandemic:
The pandemic of 1918-1919 occurred in three waves. The first wave had occurred when mild influenza erupted in the late spring and summer of 1918. The second wave occurred with an outbreak of severe influenza in the fall of 1918 and the final wave occurred in the spring of 1919.
In its wake, the pandemic would leave about twenty million dead across the world. In America alone, about 675,000 people in a population of 105 million would die from the disease.
Find out what happened in your state during the Pandemic
Mobilizing to Fight Influenza:
Although taken unaware by the pandemic, federal, state and local authorities quickly mobilized to fight the disease.
On September 27th, influenza became a reportable disease. However, influenza had become so widespread by that time that most states were unable to keep accurate records. Many simply failed to report to the Public Health Service during the pandemic, leaving epidemiologists to guess at the impact the disease may have had in different areas.
World War I had left many communities with a shortage of trained medical personnel. As influenza spread, local officials urgently requested the Public Health Service to send nurses and doctors. With less than 700 officers on duty, the Public Health Service was unable to meet most of these requests.
On the rare occasions when the PHS was able to send physicians and nurses, they often became ill en route. Those who did reach their destination safely often found themselves both unprepared and unable to provide real assistance.
In October, Congress appropriated a million dollars for the Public Health Service. The money enabled the PHS to recruit and pay for additional doctors and nurses. The existing shortage of doctors and nurses, caused by the war, made it difficult for the PHS to locate and hire qualified practitioners. The virulence of the disease also meant that many nurses and doctors contracted influenza within days of being hired.
Confronted with a shortage of hospital beds, many local officials ordered that community centers and local schools be transformed into emergency hospitals. In some areas, the lack of doctors meant that nursing and medical students were drafted to staff these makeshift hospitals.
The Pandemic Hits:
Entire families became ill. In Philadelphia, a city especially hard hit, so many children were orphaned that the Bureau of Child Hygiene found itself overwhelmed and unable to care for them.
As the disease spread, schools and businesses emptied. Telegraph and telephone services collapsed as operators took to their beds. Garbage went uncollected as garbage men reported sick. The mail piled up as postal carriers failed to come to work.
State and local departments of health also suffered from high absentee rates. No one was left to record the pandemic? s spread and the Public Health Service? s requests for information went unanswered.
As the bodies accumulated, funeral parlors ran out of caskets and bodies went uncollected in morgues.
Protecting Yourself From Influenza:
In the absence of a sure cure, fighting influenza seemed an impossible task.
In many communities, quarantines were imposed to prevent the spread of the disease. Schools, theaters, saloons, pool halls and even churches were all closed. As the bodies mounted, even funerals were held out doors to protect mourners against the spread of the disease.
Public officials, who were unaware that influenza was a virus and that masks provided no real protection against viruses, often demanded that people wear gauze masks. Some cities even passed laws requiring people to wear masks. Enforcing these laws proved to be very difficult as many people resisted wearing masks.
Advertisements recommending drugs which could cure influenza filled newspapers. Some doctors suggested that drinking alcohol might prevent infection, causing a run on alcohol supplies. Some folk healers insisted that wearing a specific type of amulet or a small bag of camphor could protect against influenza.
States passed laws forbidding spitting, fearing that this common practice spread influenza.
None of these suggestions proved effective in limiting the spread of the pandemic.
Communications During the Pandemic:
Public health officials sought to stem the rising panic by censoring newspapers and issuing simple directives. Posters and cartoons were also printed, warning people of the dangers of influenza.
Although the Public Health Service was aware that much of the nation? s large immigrant population did not speak or read English, posters used English almost exclusively. But even native English speakers found the posters and directives confusing. And limited understanding of influenza, combined with the rapidity of its spread, meant that these directives were often ignored or poorly understood.
Fading of the Pandemic:
In November, two months after the pandemic had erupted, the Public Health Service began reporting that influenza cases were declining.
Communities slowly lifted their quarantines. Masks were discarded. Schools were re-opened and citizens flocked to celebrate the end of World War I.
Communities and the disease continued to be a threat throughout the spring of 1919.
By the time the pandemic had ended, in the summer of 1919, nearly 675,000 Americans were dead from influenza. Hundred of thousands more were orphaned and widowed.
http://www.endtimesreport.com/three_waves.html