Saturday, September 6, 2008
Eeyore's important news and views
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY
At night, Margaret Jones would lie in bed, unable to sleep, her heart galloping.
Each time she came home, she feared the worst: a padlock on her door and a sign declaring her home in foreclosure. She was months behind on her adjustable-rate mortgage, which she'd become unable to pay as the rate climbed from 7% in 2004 to 12% this year. Her three-bedroom house, she was told, would be auctioned on July 1.
"My blood pressure was through the roof," says Jones, 45, a nurse in North Lauderdale, Fla. "I can see why some people commit suicide. You just want it to go away."
But the worst never happened. Rescued by a hardship loan and a mortgage-modification plan, Jones managed to stave off foreclosure and save her house.
Though the number of homeowners facing or going through foreclosure has surged — filings rose 55% from July 2007 to July this year — thousands of other homeowners on the verge of losing their homes are finding last-minute ways to ward off foreclosure. These tales have become the little-known success stories of the worst housing slump in decades. For a smattering of today's distressed homeowners, last-ditch remedies intended to stem the damage have saved the day.
Jones took out a $26,000 hardship loan from her 401(k) to pay off much of what she owed. She also managed to get her mortgage modified by calling a hotline for a credit-counseling organization, Money Management International. (The agency is part of the Homeownership Preservation Foundation, which oversees counselors and runs a hotline with Hope Now, an industry-sponsored alliance to help troubled homeowners.)
Jones' monthly mortgage bill dropped from $3,000 to about $1,800, and her interest rate is down to a fixed rate of 7.4%. She'll pay her first lower monthly payment in October.
"Now, I have peace of mind," says Jones, a mother of five whose husband, Deryck, is unemployed. "I can eat. I'm no longer afraid of the knock on the door or the sign on the front lawn. It's changed me. Now, I will send my payments in ahead of time. I may lose my water, my light, but I won't lose the roof over my head."
Those who have managed to save their homes remain a small fraction of people at risk of losing their properties. One in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July, according to RealtyTrac. More than 2.2 million foreclosure filings were reported during 2007, up 75% from 2006. The number of homes in some stage of foreclosure was up 79%, indicating that some properties may have just entered the initial stage in 2007 and could be completing the foreclosure process in 2008.
Hope for some
Still, the number who have benefited from assistance programs is believed to reach into the hundreds of thousands. Hope Now says it completed more than 181,000 mortgage workouts in June alone for loans that would otherwise have gone into foreclosure.
In the second quarter of 2008, mortgage servicers finished more than 522,000 workouts. That doesn't include homeowners who have worked out loan modifications on their own with lenders or those who received counseling or financial aid from charitable groups that aren't part of the alliance.
Some of the options that have helped distressed homeowners include:
•Lenders agreeing to repayment plans for homeowners behind on their mortgage. The lenders might, for example, agree to tack delinquent payments onto the end of a home loan.
•Lenders changing from an adjustable rate to a lower fixed rate. Many borrowers have taken on subprime loans, which go to those with shaky credit. Those loans often carry rates that increase after an initial fixed rate, and borrowers have frequently fallen behind when the payments rise. About 14% of subprime loans are in default, according to the Center for Responsible Lending.
•Lenders have also allowed some borrowers to temporarily pay less than the full amount of their monthly payment. This is a rarer option. It's usually done in cases of an unexpected financial emergency, such as a health crisis.
In other cases, homeowners on the financial brink are taking second jobs or finding newer, more lucrative jobs. Some are renting out rooms to tenants.
But research shows that a majority of homeowners on the financial precipice don't know all the options available to them to stave off foreclosure. Fifty-seven percent of borrowers who are late on their mortgage payments are unaware of foreclosure alternatives offered by their lenders, according to a survey by Freddie Mac and marketing research firm Roper Public Affairs & Media. That represents a slight improvement from 2005, when the survey found that 61% of delinquent borrowers didn't know their mortgage lender offered workout options.
Some lenders say that rescuing a homeowner from foreclosure isn't always a possibility, though there are cases where it can work. Russell Izzo, chief operating officer at the American Modification Agency in Uniondale, N.Y., says, "Options are limited but greater than many understand."
His company represents borrowers in renegotiating the terms of mortgage loans. "Some lenders are friendly, and some are more adversarial," Izzo notes.
While some critics might consider assistance for distressed homeowners an unjustified bailout, Izzo says many of those facing foreclosure have simply met bad luck or made one-time financial mistakes.
"They're honest, tax-paying people," he says. "These are not the overreaching speculator. Some may have gotten sick or lost a job."
At Mortgage Network, a Danvers, Mass.-based independent mortgage company, some customers are so overjoyed at loan modifications that they've sent bottles of wine or thank-you cards. "We look at each deal individually," says Brian Koss, managing director of Mortgage Network. Lenders are willing to work out modifications, he says, because, "You can't carry too many bad loans.
"If people can sit down, and we can look at them as people and find some middle ground, it can be worked out," Koss says.
That's what happened for Benjamin MacArthur, 46, of Burke, Vt., who suffered severe injuries in a car accident in February 2006. MacArthur, who owned a property management company, was barely able to work after the accident, and his wife was unemployed. They soon fell behind on their mortgage payments.
In 2008, he and his wife divorced and decided to sell their home. They listed their 56-acre farm house at $315,000, below its appraised value of $360,000, but couldn't sell it in the depressed housing climate. They feared they would soon face foreclosure, which, among other things, would mar their credit records.
But Mortgage Network agreed to work with them to avoid a foreclosure. In the spring of this year, Mortgage Network agreed to take "a deed in lieu of foreclosure." In doing so, the MacArthurs signed the house over to the bank and were able to walk away. The lender forgave all unpaid debt.
"I was shocked — we don't have a foreclosure on our credit," says MacArthur, who now lives with his girlfriend and golden retriever, Bo. "It was a great relief. They came and sat with us personally at our dining room table to work things out. We didn't want to have to go through foreclosure, and we didn't have to."
Even so, for the majority of homeowners facing foreclosure, efforts to save properties from bank takeovers are typically met with frustration, with many lenders remaining reluctant to renegotiate mortgages. Some lenders are simply overwhelmed with requests. Sometimes, loans have been resold, and borrowers struggle to find the right contact to initiate any negotiations.
In other cases, home buyers have gotten so far over their heads that there's no realistic way to bail them out. Some economists and advocacy groups argue that current assistance programs aren't nearly enough to help the legions of homeowners in trouble.
"Hope Now has been helpful, but it's getting completely overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com.
Getting a lift
Jess Alfaro didn't know where to go. Like tens of thousands of homeowners hit by the devastating housing slump, Alfaro had fallen behind on his mortgage payments and was facing possible foreclosure.
His situation seemed bleak. In September of last year, Alfaro, 45, of Pueblo, Colo., was earning barely $500 a month doing odd jobs such as landscaping and stucco repair, and his wife, Della, was on disability. The couple scrimped to make their $660 monthly mortgage, living on Ramen noodles, rice and beans.
They had lived in their three-bedroom house for 19 years, raised three children, and enjoyed their fenced yard with abundant room for their two pit bulls. They didn't want to leave.
He called his local Catholic Charities for help. (Catholic Charities USA is a private network of more than 1,700 Catholic social service agencies and institutions nationwide.) Counselors at Catholic Charities of Pueblo spoke with his mortgage company, which agreed to add the unpaid mortgage payments to the end of his mortgage. Alfaro also found a higher-paying job as a school custodian.
A year ago, the family was on the brink of foreclosure. Today, they're up to date on their mortgage and other bills.
"We were in danger of losing our house, and we were stressed out," Alfaro says. "My wife was crying a lot and not sleeping, but I never gave up. Now, there's a big calm in our house. We're getting along better, we're a lot less stressed about money, and we even bought some odds and ends for the house. I am living my life so peaceful and happy now."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-09-02-foreclosure-keep-home_N.htm
A very good source of vitamins and easy to store and eat, for emergencies
Plumpy'nut is a high protein and high energy peanut-based paste in a foil wrapper. It tastes slightly sweeter than peanut butter. It is categorized by the WHO as a Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF).
Plumpy’nut requires no preparation or special supervision, making it easy to deploy in difficult conditions. Plumpy'nut is very difficult to over eat and keeps even after opening. It has a 2 year shelf life when unopened. The product was inspired by the popular Nutella spread. It is manufactured by Nutriset, a French company, that specializes in making food supplements for relief work in their factory near Rouen in northern France. The ingredients are: peanut paste, vegetable oil, milk powder, powdered sugar, vitamins and minerals, combined in a foil pouch. Each pack provides 500 Kcal or 2.1 MJ. [1].
Plumpy'Nut contains vitamins A, B-complex, C, D, E and K, and minerals calcium, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, zinc, copper, iron, iodine, sodium, and selenium.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plumpy'nut
Another we never learn from history moments
Talks resume on US-India nuclear technology deal
Originally published 07:02 a.m., September 4, 2008,
VIENNA, AUSTRIA (AP) - A senior U.S. official says he sees "steady progress" in talks under way in Vienna on a deal that would let the United States sell peaceful nuclear technology to India.
U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs William Burns has told reporters that Washington believes giving New Delhi access to nuclear fuel and technology would actually strengthen _ and not undermine _ nonproliferation efforts.
Burns says a second round of contentious talks that resumed Thursday are "making steady progress," and he says the U.S. remains optimistic that a deal can be reached.
The talks were convened by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the global body that governs the legal trade in nuclear materials.
Several small nations are trying to block the deal.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/04/talks-resume-on-us-india-nuclear-technology-dea-1/
World's strongest hurricanes could be getting stronger
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
The strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have become more intense due to global warming over the past 25 years, according to a new study in Wednesday's edition of the British journal Nature. The findings add fuel to the simmering argument in the meteorological community about the Earth's changing climate, and its relationship to the power of tropical systems worldwide.
Scientists from Florida State University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison analyzed satellite data from nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones around the world from 1981 to 2006, and found that the strongest storms are getting stronger, especially over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
Tropical cyclones are the umbrella term for hurricanes (in the Atlantic and east Pacific), typhoons (in the West Pacific) and cyclones (in the Indian).
"As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," FSU professor of geography and study lead author James B. Elsner explained.
Elsner's team found that wind speeds for the strongest hurricanes increased from an average of 140 mph in 1981 to 156 mph in 2006, while the average global sea-surface temperature — as measured in all regions where tropical cyclones form — increased from 82.8 degrees to 83.3 degrees during those 25 years. The authors calculated that this increase in ocean temperature results in a 31% increase in the global frequency of strong cyclones from 13 to 17 per year.
All of the world's tropical basins showed this pattern, with the exception of the South Pacific Ocean. Also, there was no noticeable uptick in the intensity of weaker hurricanes, however.
"By creating a better, more consistent historical data set, we've been able to weed out quality issues that introduce a lot of uncertainty," said research scientist James Kossin of the U. of Wisconsin. "Then, by looking only at the strongest tropical cyclones, where the relationship between storms and climate is most pronounced, we are able to observe the increasing trends in storm intensity that both the theory and models say should be there."
National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea, who has questioned the link between a warming world and a rise in the number and intensity of hurricanes, said that while the paper's statistical methodology is excellent, he doubted its conclusion because he thinks the data is flawed. He questions the data for Indian Ocean storms before 1997, when there weren't as many satellites watching the storms, and in the way the scientists used the data for the most extreme winds.
Additionally, Landsea said the Atlantic is in a multi-decade period of heightened hurricane activity due to natural climatic cycles. The current active era began in the mid-90s. "This current paper cannot address this cyclic variability for the Atlantic, as it starts with data in 1981," he said.
"The paper has some elegantly calculated statistics, but these are generated on data that are not, in my opinion, reliable for examining how the strongest tropical cyclones have changed around the world," wrote Landsea in an e-mail.
Elsner does acknowledge that "we still do not have a complete understanding of why some cyclones intensify, sometimes quite rapidly, and others don't."
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2008-09-03-hurricanes-warming-oceans_N.htm
More European tension
Cheney slams Russia for war against Georgia
TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Demonstrating Washington's commitment to beleaguered Georgia, Vice President Cheney flew in Thursday and condemned Russia for what he called an "illegitimate, unilateral attempt" to redraw Georgia's borders by force.
Speaking during a closely watched trip to this U.S.-allied South Caucasus nation, Cheney also assured Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili that the United States was "fully committed" to his country's efforts to join NATO.
"Georgia will be in our alliance," Cheney said.
One of the U.S. administration's most hawkish figures and a longtime critic of Russia, Cheney was visiting three ex-Soviet republics that are nervous about Moscow's intentions — Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.
His trip signaled to Moscow that the United States will continue to cultivate close ties with Georgia and its neighbors even after Russia showed it was not afraid to use its military against countries along its border.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-09-04-cheney-georgia_N.htm
More on tools, you need to think low tech when you lose your electric. Here is an interesting aticle, hope you enjoy it.
Low-tech aid for poor Inventions that make life easier Vijaysree Venkatraman CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITORWednesday, September 3, 2008
For three weeks this summer, masons and mechanics, farmers and welders, scientists and a pastor threw themselves into creating low-tech solutions to big problems that persist across the globe. Converging at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, these 61 inventors from 20 countries divided into multilingual teams, each drafting and tinkering a device of the team's own making that may make life for the world's poor a little easier.
There was no grand prize to be won at this second annual International Development Design Summit (IDDS), but members sometimes skipped meals and stayed up late - sawing, hammering and welding - to perfect and build their designs.
Soon, their prototypes will be rebuilt and refined in the developing world by artisans using locally available materials, and ultimately they will be tested by consumers who live on less than $1 a day.
The 10 teams constructed a wide variety of devices - from an inexpensive incubator for low-birth-weight babies to a rope system that could help craftswomen in the Himalayas get their products to market. Here are three of the inventions that emerged from this year's IDDS:
Each summer, Americans fire up their charcoal grills for outdoor barbecues. In many developing countries, charcoal is an everyday fuel used with indoor kitchen stoves, but the smoke-flavored food carries a health risk. Charcoal is not clean-burning, and one IDDS team says the resultant indoor pollution has been linked to deaths on the same scale globally as those caused by malaria and tuberculosis.
One way to make charcoal produce fewer emissions is to pulverize charred agricultural waste - such as corncobs or crushed sugar cane - and pack it into denser briquettes. A $2 metal press already is available for forming charcoal, says Jessica Vechakul, an engineer from MIT. What is missing in the market is a device to crush the burned cobs into powder - so her IDDS team decided to build one.
Their prototype looks like an oversized mouse trap with a hand crank. The user spins the crank and feeds the blackened cobs through a hopper. The grinder drops the powder into a container, where it's mixed with other ingredients into a cookie-dough consistency for briquettes. The simple contraption can crush 6 pounds of cobs in 10 minutes.
Now people who make charcoal from corncobs stomp on bags of burned cobs or beat the sacks with heavy sticks. When they empty the bags, the worker is engulfed momentarily in a black cloud, inhaling the dust, Ms. Vechakul says. Also, after a few stomping sessions, the bags must be replaced - a recurring expense.
"It is one messy job," Ms. Vechakul says.
Bernard Kiwia, a bike mechanic from Tanzania, will take his team's design to his home country. There, his job will be to persuade rural communities to use the hand-cranked device instead of cutting down trees for fuel.
This alternative fuel from agricultural waste might be cheap overall, but, as some rural poor see it, wood costs nothing but time and effort, Mr. Kiwia says. Unless they understand the huge environmental cost of regularly chopping down trees, those in the countryside have little incentive to switch to a cleaner fuel, he says. Getting the target audience to invest in the IDDS device appears to be the toughest part of the design game.
Video-game cartridges from the 1980s may strike some as quaint relics from an eight-bit era, but one IDDS team sought to convert the outmoded systems into an inexpensive learning tool for children in developing countries.
Computers are prohibitively expensive for many in developing nations, but televisions are common and could work as a platform for educational games, says Derek Lomas, the design team leader.
Earlier this year in Bangalore, India, Mr. Lomas strolled through a bazaar and noticed an educational video-game system based on the Japanese Nintendo Famicom, for which patents have run out. On a lark, he bought the set for $12.50. The generic system came with two game cartridges, a keyboard and a couple of controllers.
The cheap TV-based computer got his IDDS team brainstorming.
Facilities in Ghanaian public high schools are significantly lacking compared with those in private schools, says teammate and Ghanaian pastor George Fuachie. Some cleverly designed educational software with reasonable price tags could give disadvantaged youngsters much-needed help and computer training.
Off the shelf, this rudimentary computer can run a graphic user interface with a mouse and has some built-in programming capability. The team's job is to design software appropriate for the classroom.
"It can run eight-bit games like Oregon Trail, Lemonade Stand ... and Number Munchers, which I enjoyed playing as a kid," Mr. Lomas says.
Eventually, students could create their own locally relevant games on this system. Imagine children in Africa playing ethnic board games such as Mancala - or a regional variation - on a television screen, he says.
The team researched hardware modifications to the TV-computer that will enable users to connect to text-only Internet sites - and they declare it doable. Within a month, they also assembled a software development kit that makes it easier for open-source developers to produce new games and educational content for the system.
Going from the design concept to a commercial product is the task that lies ahead. When that happens, Mr. Lomas can consider his $12.50 investment a decent bargain.
Globally, 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and use fuel lamps or stay in darkness every night. Going about their daytime chores - pumping water, grinding dough or getting around on bicycles - these off-the-grid people physically exert themselves to run machines.
One IDDS team worked on a bit of modern alchemy - converting mechanical energy from everyday labor into stored electrical energy. Few consumers will labor away to generate electrical power.
"But if the effort is incidental as they go about some regular task, people don't seem to mind putting in that extra 10 percent," says Jay Pagnis, a mechanical engineering student from India.
His team focused on treadle pumps - foot-operated devices used to irrigate farmland in Asia and Africa. Many country farmers step on and off these StairMaster-like contraptions to pump water for an average of four hours a day.
The team's generator attachment fits in a wooden frame and hooks the pump's treadle to a turning wheel, which charges a couple of store-bought batteries. After the day's work, a farmer can unhook the rechargeable batteries and use the power to light a 5-watt compact fluorescent lamp - the equivalent of a regular 25-watt incandescent lamp - for four hours, Mr. Pagnis says.
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR A team at this summer's International Development Design Summit at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology works on learning games that can be used with television sets, common in Third World countries, instead of computers. The team members (from the left) are Miguel Chaves from Brazil, Derek Lomas from the United States, William McIver from Canada, the Rev. George Fuachie from Ghana, Jesse Austin Brenemen from the United States and Anuj Nanavati from India.
It may not seem like much, but this lighting is more efficient compared with the kerosene lamps currently in use in such places, says teammate Suprio Das, an Indian electrical engineer. What's more, this setup can pay for itself in six months, they say. If it breaks down, the mechanism is simple enough to be repaired by a local bike mechanic.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/03/low-tech-aid-for-poor/
Friday, September 5, 2008
Eeyore's important news and views
They said stock went down (before) because oil went up, so oil goes down and they say they are afraid of the global economy. They are manipulating the price to make money, period.
Dow plunges 345 points; 'It's brutal out there'
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Stocks Thursday suffered their biggest sell-off since the June swoon on scary data regarding employment and retail sales.
The Dow Jones industrial average tanked 344.65 points, or 3.0%, to 11,188.23. That was the Dow's biggest one-day point drop since it shed 358.41 points on June 26. The Dow has now lost 15.7% of its value this year.
All but one industry in the Standard & Poor's 500 index sank, education services, pulling the index down 38.15 points, or 3.0%, to 1236.83. Stocks in the consumer services, thrifts & mortgage finance and casinos & gambling industries especially hammered the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is down 15.8% this year. And tech stocks, which had been holding up better this year, tumbled, too. The Nasdaq composite index lost 74.69 points, or 3.2%, to 2259.04. The day's loss brings the Nasdaq's decline this year to 14.8%.
Small-company stocks cracked, too, with the Russell 2000 index falling 3.1%.
"It's brutal out there and getting worse," says Oliver Wiener, trader at institutional brokerage BTIG.
Headlines certainly didn't help matters at all. Retail August sales reported by several retailers were disappointing. The Labor Department, meanwhile, reported new claims for jobless benefits rose by 15,000 last week from the previous week.
But the concerns run deeper. Wiener says investors are hitting hedge funds and mutual funds with requests for their money back. That's forcing some large investment firms to sell stocks in order to cash out investors, he says. "Money is coming out. We're starting to see that. It seems to be a driver."
Not even another decline in the price of oil helped. The price of a barrel of oil dropped $1.46 to $107.89, 26% below the $145.29 closing high set in July.
And the fact stocks are sinking along with oil shows investors are concerned about global economic slowing, says Todd Leone of Cowen. Investors are betting "oil is down because the economy will be slow," he says. "It was a tough market. A tough day."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/2008-09-04-stocks-thurs_N.htm
Do you think this increases or decreases the tensions in the area?
Cheney travels to Azerbaijan as part of ex-Soviet republics tour
BAKU, Azerbaijan (AP) — Vice President Dick Cheney traveled to Azerbaijan Wednesday, part of a tour of three ex-Soviet republics wary of Russia's intentions following last month's war between Russia and neighboring Georgia. ...
The trip comes amid increasingly tense relations between Washington and Moscow.
Following the war in Georgia, Russia has boldly asserted its right to exert clout over what it says is its historic sphere of influence — including many former Soviet republics.
Both Georgia and Ukraine have sought to pull themselves out from under Russia's shadow, pushing for membership in Western structures like the European Union and NATO — much to Moscow's consternation.
Washington has also courted Azerbaijan, trying to ensure its oil wealth is exported to the West bypassing Russia.
Aliev's government is often criticized by rights groups for heavy-handed treatment of independent media and opposition groups. International observers have said past elections were flawed.
Cheney's visit comes as the U.S. administration plans to roll out a $1 billion economic aid package for Georgia to help it rebuild. The White House and U.S. State Department intend to jointly announce the aid package later Wednesday.
(You can read the complete article here)
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-09-03-cheney-azerbaijan_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
Lifespan of your Dog
The old rule-of-thumb that one dog year equals seven years of a human life is not accurate. The ratio is higher with youth and decreases a bit as the dog ages. Depending on breed, a dog experiences the raging hormones of adolescence anywhere from eight months to two years or more. Generally, a dog of six has aged about as much as a 45-year-old human. At 10, she's like a human of 65; at 12, a human of 75; and at 15, a human of 90. Dog Years
A dog's lifespan is only a fraction of the average human's lifespan, which means that a dog ages more quickly in the same amount of time. This chart shows how a dog's age might be adjusted to compare to a human's age.
Canine Age Human Age
2 Months 14 Months
6 Months 5 Years
8 Months 9 Years
1 Year 15 Years
2 Years 24 Years
3 Years 28 Years
4 Years 32 Years
5 Years 37 Years
6 Years 42 Years
7 Years 47 Years
8 Years 52 Years
9 Years 57 Years
10 Years 62 Years
11 Years 67 Years
12 Years 72 Years
13 Years 77 Years
14 Years 82 Years
http://www.dogyears.com/
US confirms raid inside Pakistan 3, 2008 - 9:40pm By PAUL ALEXANDER Associated Press Writer ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (AP) - American forces conducted a raid inside Pakistan Wednesday, a senior U.S. military official said, in the first known foreign ground assault against a suspected Taliban haven. Pakistan's government condemned the action, saying it killed at least 15 people. The American official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of cross border operations, said the raid occurred about a mile inside Pakistan. The Washington-based official didn't provide details on casualties. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry protested the attack, and an army spokesman warned that the apparent escalation from recent missile strikes on militant targets along the Afghan border would further anger Pakistanis and undercut cooperation in the war against terrorist groups. The boldness of the thrust fed speculation about the intended target. But it was unclear whether any extremist leader was killed or captured in the operation, which occurred in one of the militant strongholds dotting a frontier region considered a likely hiding place for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaida's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahri.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=105&sid=1160646
I never thought that the autism was caused bythe shot, but i still believe that autism i some children is caused by the mercury that they put in the shos years ago (and still doing in the ones shiped overseas) for a preservative.
Study: No link between measles vaccine and autism September 3, 2008 - 8:01pm
By LAURAN NEERGAARD AP Medical Writer
WASHINGTON (AP) - New research further debunks any link between measles vaccine and autism, work that comes as the nation is experiencing a surge in measles cases fueled by children left unvaccinated.
Years of research with the measles, mumps and rubella vaccine, better known as MMR, have concluded that it doesn't cause autism. Still, some parents' fears persist, in part because of one 1998 British study that linked the vaccine with a subgroup of autistic children who also have serious gastrointestinal problems. That study reported that measles virus was lingering in the children's bowels.
Only now have researchers rigorously retested that finding, taking samples of youngsters' intestines to hunt for signs of virus with the most modern genetic technology. There is no evidence that MMR plays any role, the international team _ which included researchers who first raised the issue _ reported Wednesday.
"Although in fact there was evidence that this vaccine was safe in the bulk of the population, it had not been previously assessed with respect to kids with autism and GI complaints," said Dr. W. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University College of Physicians and Surgeons, who led the work published in PLoS One, the online journal of the Public Library of Science.
"We are confident there is no link between MMR and autism," Lipkin said.
Added co-author Dr. Larry Pickering of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: "I feel very certain that it is a safe vaccine."
Measles, a highly infectious virus best known for its red skin rash, once routinely sickened thousands of children a year and killed hundreds, until childhood vaccinations made it a rarity in this country. But so far this year, the U.S. has counted 131 measles cases, the most in a decade. Most patients were unvaccinated. Some were infants too young for their first MMR shot, but nearly half involved children whose parents rejected vaccination, the CDC reported last month.
No one knows just how many autism patients also suffer gastrointestinal disorders, pain that they may not be able to communicate. But Lipkin said that by some estimates, up to a quarter may be affected.
The MMR fear was that the vaccine's weakened measles virus somehow lodged in and inflamed intestines, allowing waste products to escape and reach the central nervous system, Lipkin said. So his team had two questions: Does measles virus really persist in children with both disorders and not other youngsters? And did vaccination precede the GI complaints which in turn preceded autism?
Researchers studied 25 children with both autism and GI disorders, and another 13 children with the same GI disorders but no neurologic problems. The youngsters _ the average age was 5 _ all were undergoing colonoscopies for their GI conditions anyway, allowing tissue samples to be tested for genetic traces of measles virus. All had been vaccinated at younger ages.
The tests uncovered traces of measles genetic material in the bowels of one boy with autism _ and one boy without autism. That doesn't prove virus never temporarily lodged in more children, but it contradicts the earlier study that raised concern.
Nor was there a relationship with vaccine timing: Just five of the 25 autistic children had MMR precede GI complaints that in turn preceded autism symptoms.
Researchers consulted some prominent vaccine critics in designing the study. California advocate Rick Rollens praised the work but said it didn't eliminate other vaccine concerns that deserve similar study. Meanwhile, he said it should draw much-needed attention to the suffering of patients like his son, who has both autism and GI disorders.
"No longer can mainstream medicine ignore the parents' claims of significant GI distress," he said.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1471765
102 arrested after GOP convention's third night September 4, 2008 - 3:11pm
ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) - Police arrested 102 protesters in downtown Minneapolis early Thursday following a concert by the rock group Rage Against the Machine, raising to more than 400 the number arrested in demonstrations related to the Republican National Convention.
Police blocked off an intersection as they processed those arrested. Young people sat on a sidewalk, their backs against a building, or stood quietly in line, their hands in plastic cuffs behind their backs.
Protesters calling for an end to the Iraq war urged others to join their march Thursday night outside the convention as John McCain accepts his party's presidential nomination on its fourth and final night. (rest of the article is at)
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=213&sid=1465706
Thursday, September 4, 2008
2nd Admendment, Health Risks-E coli, Hurricane update, politics, Russian Expansionism, Science
By Oren Dorell, USA TODAY
People living along the coast of the Southeast crowded stores for plywood and batteries as Tropical Storm Hanna headed toward Florida.
The tropical storm was due to hit the Bahamas today with 65 mph winds up to 10 inches of rain, said Corey Walton, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts show it strengthening to a Category 1, on a scale of 1-5, with winds of up to 95 mph and traveling along the eastern coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, she said.
"Right now that whole area could be a potential landfall, but we don't know where exactly that will be," she said.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ike, which is expected to become a hurricane today, and Tropical Storm Josephine are lined up behind Hanna. And more tropical storms could be on the way, said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.
"We've never really bought plywood, but it seemed like maybe we'd better do it this time," said Janey Miley, 43, at Home Depot in Savannah, Ga.
Miley had also booked hotel reservations in Columbia, S.C., in case her family needed to evacuate.
Governors and emergency management officials in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia have activated their emergency operations centers and issued warnings to residents to watch and prepare for Hanna.
"Even if the storm does not make landfall in Georgia, tropical storm Hanna may bring extensive flooding, tornadoes and power outages," said Charley English, director of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2008-09-02-hanna_N.htm
Update on Ike
Forecasters: Ike strengthens into major hurricane September 3, 2008 - 7:59pm
MIAMI (AP) - Forecasters say Ike has become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.
That makes Ike the third major hurricane of the Atlantic season, which has had five hurricanes total. Bertha and Gustav were the other major hurricanes.
(You can read the complete story here)
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=104&sid=1136424
Putin vows 'an answer' to NATO ships near Georgia September 2, 2008 - 3:31pm
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press Writer
MOSCOW (AP) - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia will respond calmly to an increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea in the aftermath of the short war with Georgia, but promised that "there will be an answer."
Meanwhile, President Dmitry Medvedev sternly warned the West that it would lose more than Moscow would if it tried to punish Russia with sanctions over the war with Georgia.
Russia has repeatedly complained that NATO has too many warships in the Black Sea. Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Tuesday that currently there are two U.S., one Polish, one Spanish and one German ship there.
"We don't understand what American ships are doing on the Georgian shores, but this is a question of taste, it's a decision by our American colleagues," Putin reportedly said. "The second question is why the humanitarian aid is being delivered on naval vessels armed with the newest rocket systems."
Russia's reaction to NATO ships "will be calm, without any sort of hysteria. But of course, there will be an answer," Interfax quoted Putin as saying during a visit to Uzbekistan.
Asked by exactly what measures Russia would take in response to NATO ships in the Black Sea, Putin was quoted as answering, "You'll see."
As if to emphasize the country's strength _ its control over a growing percentage of European energy supplies _ Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to announce a deal that would tighten Russia's hand on Central Asian energy exports to the West.
In an interview with Italy's RAI television broadcast Tuesday, Medvedev said that Russia doesn't fear expulsion from the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations.
"The G-8 will be practically unable to function without Russia, because it can make decisions only if they reflect the opinion of top global economies and leading political players of the world," Medvedev said. "That's why we don't fear being expelled from the G-8."
Presidential candidate John McCain is among those who called for Russia's expulsion from the elite club of the world's richest countries.
Medvedev also warned that NATO would suffer more than Russia if its ties with Moscow were severed.
"We don't see anything dramatic or difficult about suspending our relations if that's the wish of our partners," Medvedev said. "But I think that our partners will lose more from that."
NATO nations depend on Russia as a transit route for supplies going to the alliance's troops in Afghanistan.
At a summit Monday, the European Union issued a declaration saying Russia was violating the terms of its cease-fire with Georgia. It warned that talks on a political and economic agreement with the Kremlin would be postponed unless Russian troops pulled back from positions in Georgia.
Britain and eastern European nations held out for a tougher line, but Europe's dependence on Russian oil and natural gas deterred stronger sanctions.
Russia supplies the EU with a third of its oil and 40 percent of its natural gas _ a dependence that the EU's administrative body says will rise significantly in the future.
Putin announced Tuesday that Russia and Uzbekistan will build a new natural gas pipeline that will pump Turkmen and Uzbek gas into Russia's pipeline system, which Russia will re-export to Europe.
The project, which has been under discussions for several months, will strengthen Moscow's hold over Central Asian gas and undermine Western-backed efforts for a rival trans-Caspian route.
___
Associated Press writers Mansur Mirovalev and Mike Eckel in Moscow and Constant Brand in Brussels, Belgium, contributed to this report.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=105&sid=1367816
Gun sales start Tuesday September 3, 2008 - 11:03am WASHINGTON - District residents will be able to buy handguns starting next Tuesday. The District began registering handguns in mid-July in response to a Supreme Court ruling that overturned the city's long time ban. But, as of last month, only 11 handguns had been registered. The low number could be because there was no way for residents to buy a handgun and get it transferred into the city. That's about to change. "I do think the numbers will go up some once you can purchase in the District," says D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier. "I don't think it's going to skyrocket." Because there are no gun stores in the city, residents have been unable to purchase a handgun. The guns registered so far have either been illegal guns that were registered under the amnesty program or guns that were being stored out-of-state. Federal law requires that guns purchased out-of-state be shipped from the dealer who sells the gun to another dealer in the state where the buyer is going to register the weapon. Charles Sykes, the only licensed firearms dealer in the District willing to transfer handguns for individuals, tells WTOP his office in Anacostia will be open for business next week. Sykes says he will be charging a $125 fee to transfer each handgun. Gun stores in Maryland and Virginia charge as little as $25 for the same service. Sykes says he gets between one to two calls a day about transferring guns. Sykes has been transferring handguns for security firms in the city for years, but had to have his license and permits renewed after he moved his office. Traci Hughes, a spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police Department, says that process is complete and Sykes can begin transferring guns anytime. "He is fully licensed by the ATF and the District," writes Hughes. http://www.wtop.com/?nid=695&sid=1471352
Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a CenturyMichael Asher (Blog) - September 1, 2008 8:11 AM
The record-setting surface of the sun. A full month has gone by without a single spot (Source: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO))
Sunspot activity of the past decade. Over the past year, SIDC has continually revised its predictions downward (Source: Solar Influences Data Center)
Geomagnetic solar activity for the past two decades. The recent drop corresponds to the decline in sunspots. (Source: Anthony Watts)
A chart of sunspot activity showing two prior solar minima, along with heightened activity during the 20th century (Source: Wikimedia Commons)Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.
This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.
Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.
Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.
What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again. Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as Mount Wilson Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on which center you believe, August was a record for either a full century, or only 50 years.
http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+Century/article12823.htm
Big Government Is a High-Stakes Affair
By ERNEST S. CHRISTIAN and BILL FRENZELAugust 30, 2008; Page A9
The 2008 election is shaping up to be an extraordinarily high-risk affair. Consider, for example, the risk that Republican losses in the Senate might give Democrats control over both houses of Congress, with unstoppably large majorities. And on top of that, consider the risk that Barack Obama will win the White House with an open-ended mandate for radical but unspecified change.
Who is Sen. Obama, and what would he do with an open-ended mandate? Except for his own media-packaged self-description, the voters still have relatively little to go on.
Mr. Obama's sparse legislative record suggests that he is at the very least a high-tax, big-spending liberal. On the broad issues of the social contract -- those involving personal freedom, America's status in the world, and the role of government versus markets in allocating resources -- he might become the most left-wing, collectivist-minded person ever to be president.
The stakes are so high in this presidential election for a fundamental reason that doesn't get discussed nearly enough: The federal government is so large and powerful. In particular, any aggressive president and Congress acting together have it in their legal authority -- under our presently elasticized Constitution -- to exercise near complete control over the economy. A long line of judge-made law since the Supreme Court's New Deal era decision in Wickard v. Filburn (1942) says there is almost no limit, under the commerce clause of the Constitution, to the regulatory reach of the federal government.
Thus, a united president and Congress can, as a practical matter, do all or any of the following (plus much more): take your money and give it to someone else; tell businesses what to produce and sell, who to hire and what wages to pay; set all commodity, wholesale and retail prices; control all energy supplies, communication networks and financial markets; replace all private health-care with a government system; prescribe the curriculum for all schools; determine which students get a slot in elite universities; diminish political and other speech; and enroll all citizens above the age of 17 either in the military or in civilian corps for periodic instruction and service. Children could be required to spend the summer in government "youth" camps.
Obama or no Obama, alarm bells about the size and scope of government should have been going off for years, but weren't. They may yet, in November -- after it is too late.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122005098970184843.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
E. coli outbreak in Oklahoma kills 1, sickens 200 September 2, 2008 - 6:04pm By SEAN MURPHY Associated Press Writer OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - An E. coli outbreak linked to a restaurant in northeastern Oklahoma has sickened more than 200 people and killed at least one person, state health officials said Tuesday. The Country Cottage restaurant in Locust Grove has been closed voluntarily for more than a week, but an exact source of the contamination has not been pinpointed, state epidemiologist Dr. Kristy Bradley said in a statement. "The complexity of this outbreak and the necessity to be extremely thorough in our investigation means we still have more questions than answers," she said. The state is testing food preparation and serving surfaces at the restaurant and interviewing those who became ill, Bradley said. Health officials first reported the outbreak Aug. 25. The state Health Department said Tuesday that 206 people have become sick, including 53 children. Those sickened range in age from 2 months to 88 years. The outbreak has been blamed for the death of 26-year-old Chad Ingle of Pryor, who died Aug. 24, a week after eating at the restaurant. A spokeswoman for the family that runs the restaurant has described the owners as distraught. A message on the restaurant's answering machine says, "We have decided to voluntarily remain closed today so we can continue working closely with the state Health Department." Symptoms of E. coli infection include stomach cramps and bloody diarrhea. Most of those who die have weak immune systems, such as the elderly or very young. Sheila Beaver, a Locust Grove woman whose family ate at Country Cottage on Aug. 19, said she took her 19-month-old daughter, Braylee Beaver, to the hospital nearly a week later after she developed a fever and severe diarrhea. Beaver criticized state health officials for not shutting down the restaurant after the first illnesses were reported to the health department on Aug. 22. Even after a surprise inspection Aug. 23 that identified nine health code violations, the restaurant remained open Aug. 24, the day Ingle died. "Once there were so many people who were sick that had eaten at Country Cottage, I think they should have at least shut it down," Beaver said. "When it's people's lives at stake, they should shut things down. This is a serious disease." But Leslea Bennett-Webb, a spokeswoman for the state health department, said that even after officials were notified Aug. 22 of an outbreak, there was little hard evidence to present to the public. "There was nothing evident on the inspection that would have linked immediately to a major outbreak," Bennett-Webb said. Braylee Beaver ate chicken fried steak, mashed potatoes with gravy and corn from her father's plate, her mother said, but the little girl was the only one who became seriously ill. The girl also at ice cream from the restaurant. She was placed on 24-hour dialysis for three days last week and remains hospitalized in Oklahoma City. "It's been an emotional roller coaster, and I've cried a lot," Beaver said Tuesday from her daughter's hospital room, noting that the little girl was wary of the doctors trying to help her. "When they were poking her, she kept saying 'I'm sorry,'" Beaver said. "It was really hard." Locust Grove is a community of 1,500 about 50 miles east of Tulsa. http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1411380
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
A chemistry professor in a large college had some exchange students in the class. One day while the class was in the lab the Professor noticed one young man (exchange student) who kept rubbing his back, and stretching as if his back hurt. The professor asked the young man what was the matter. The student told him he had a bullet lodged in his back. He had been shot while fighting communists in his native country who were trying to overthrow his country's government and install a new communist government. In the midst of his story he looked at the professor and asked a strange question. He asked, 'Do you know how to catch wild pigs?' The professor thought it was a joke and asked for the punch line. The young man said this was no joke. 'You catch wild pigs by finding a suitable place in the woods and putting corn on the ground. The pigs find it and begin to come everyday to eat the free corn. When they are used to coming every day, you put a fence down one side of the place where they are used to coming. When they get used to the fence, they begin to eat the corn again and you put up another side of the fence. They get used to that and start to eat again. You continue until you have all four sides of the fence up with a gate in The last side. The pigs, who are used to the free corn, start to come through the gate to eat, you slam the gate on them and catch the whole herd. Suddenly the wild pigs have lost their freedom. They run around and around inside the fence, but they are caught. Soon they go back to eating the free corn. They are so used to it that they have forgotten how to forage in the woods for themselves, so they accept their captivity. The young man then told the professor that is exactly what he sees happening to America . The government keeps pushing us toward socialism and keeps spreading the free corn out in the form of programs such as supplemental income, tax credit for unearned income, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies, payments not to plant crops (CRP), welfare, medicine, drugs, etc.. While we continually lose our freedoms -- just a little at a time. One should always remember: There is no such thing as a free lunch! Also, a politician will never provide a service for you cheaper than you can do it yourself. Also, if you see that all of this wonderful government 'help' is a problem confronting the future of democracy in America , you might want to send this on to your friends. If you think the free ride is essential to your way of life then you will probably delete this email, but God help you when the gate slams shut! In this 'very important' election year, listen closely to what the candidates are promising you !! Just maybe you will be able to tell who is about to slam the gate on America .
'A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have.' - Thomas Jefferson
Follow up on Gustav, not s big or as strong as they feared which is good. But still costly.
Gustav damages estimated near $10B September 2, 2008 - 6:01pm
By The Associated Press
(AP) - LIGHT PUNCH: Insured losses caused by Hurricane Gustav are estimated to be between $4 billion and $10 billion, far less than Hurricane Katrina's $41 billion toll.
DARK DAYS: More than 1 million customers lack power, mostly in Louisiana, and it will likely be several days before electricity is restored.
RETAIL EYES OPPORTUNITY: Home Depot and Lowe's send truckloads of generators, chain saws and other supplies for Gulf Coast residents' return.
Gustav evacuees urged to stay away
NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Hurricane Gustav didn't pack the wallop of Katrina three years earlier, officials said Monday, but they urged almost 2 million evacuees to stay away from the Gulf Coast for another day.
A man walks past a storefront that collapsed as Hurricane Gustav passed through Lafayette, Louisiana, on Monday.
"Tomorrow is not a day to start coming back to the city of New Orleans," Mayor Ray Nagin said Monday night.
"Power lines are down all over the city; there's a significant number of homes and businesses that are without power," Nagin said.
Still, he said, Gustav didn't do the damage feared a few days ago, a possible repeat of 2005's Hurricane Katrina.
"I'd probably call Gustav, instead of the mother of all storms, maybe the mother-in-law or the ugly sister of all storms," Nagin said.
Across Louisiana, more than 800,000 people were without electricity, and some may not see it restored for two weeks or more, Gov. Bobby Jindal said.
At a news conference with Jindal, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff urged Gulf Coast residents who evacuated to stay away until damage could be assessed.
But even those who fled faced hardships. About 2,700 people who took up short-term residence Monday in the Louisiana State University Agriculture Center in Alexandria were told that the buildings generator power was not reaching the plumbing system, meaning no showers and no flushing toilets, said John Barnett, head of the facilities.
"It's really crowded, and everybody's just trying to do their best," said Kesha Harlow, who was there with her daughter, 8, and her son, 2 months. "We're just waiting for the storm to blow over."
Gustav roared from the Gulf of Mexico into southern Louisiana on Monday as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph, bringing fierce winds and heavy rains from the Alabama-Florida border west into Texas.
In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, two people were killed when a tree fell on the house where they were staying after they had come from farther south to escape the storm, officials said. A man was killed in a similar incident in north Lafayette, Louisiana, officials said.
Four hospice patients died while waiting for air ambulances to evacuate them from southern Louisiana, according to Richard Zuschlag, chairman and CEO of Acadian Ambulance.
Gustav was blamed for more than 60 deaths in the Caribbean, including 51 in southwestern Haiti.
At 10 p.m. CT, Gustav was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 60 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
In New Orleans, Gustav drove sheets of water over the protective levees around the Industrial Canal early Monday afternoon, but the walls appeared to hold up under the onslaught as the winds faded.
Up to 6 feet of water spilled into an industrial park in the Upper 9th Ward late Monday morning, pouring through small gaps in the concrete flood walls before receding in the afternoon. Watch water spill over the levee »
But as the storm eased, inspectors from the Army Corps of Engineers and parish levee boards went out to check on the earthen walls and have found nothing to raise alarm, said Col. Craig Gunter, a Corps of Engineers spokesman. iReport.com: See one reader's footage of the levee
"The levees all held up," Nagin said. "I was hoping that this would happen, that we would be able to stand before America and before everyone and say we had some success with the levee system."
With the water level in Lake Pontchartrain north of the city rising, the Army Corps of Engineers closed flood gates on the 17th Street Canal and the London Avenue Canal, two areas that caused some of the more severe flooding during Katrina.
Official feared late Monday afternoon that a private levee south of New Orleans was in danger of failing, but water levels receded, and sandbagging efforts appeared to have paid off.
"We have stopped the bleeding, and I am very encouraged by what we are seeing," Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said of the levee in Braithwaite.
Gustav made landfall Monday morning near the coastal town of Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 80 miles southwest of New Orleans. iReport: Watch winds rip New Orleans rooftop
The storm's eastern bands, which generally pack the most powerful winds, also hammered Mississippi as Gustav moved to the west of New Orleans.
In Biloxi, Mississippi, iReporter Kevin Wise, who lives two blocks from the beach, said Gustav had pushed the Gulf waters into a highway about 100 yards from the normal shoreline.
"On the beach, it was blowing hard enough that you had to squat down to take a picture; it could pretty much throw you around," he said. Wise said he and his wife ignored mandatory evacuation orders for his area.
Almost 2 million residents evacuated the Louisiana coast, but some in New Orleans opted to brave the storm.
"It really didn't look as vicious as, obviously, Katrina did," Jack Bosma said. Watch gales batter home, reporter »
He said the wind scattered his back gate across his yard, but his power was on, and neighbors had been congregating on his porch.
"It's really, quite honestly, basically, just like a bad storm. It doesn't seem that drastic at all," he said.
Property damage from Gustav could total $8 billion, just 25 percent of Sunday's estimate, according to a federally supported computer projection issued Monday morning. See damage map »
Meanwhile, forecasters said late Monday that Hurricane Hanna was nearly stationary in the Bahamas. At 11 p.m. ET, Hanna had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a Category 1 storm.
Hanna could make landfall Friday near the Georgia/South Carolina border, possibly as a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph.
And in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ike formed Monday with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was headed toward the Bahamas
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/01/gustav/index.html
Here is a water generator might not be for everyone, but with electricity you have water. I will follow up in a few weeks with a more complete water on Saturday on or regular Prep Talk.
The EcoloBlue™ 28 requires no set-up and comes ready to make water right out of the box. Just plug it in and this revolutionary machine begins making fresh water...up to 7 gallons* in 24 hours! It requires no water source other than the humidity in the air. Each gallon of water uses, on average, $0.20 cents of electricity to produce. That's about $1.00 for every five gallons of water! Compare that to the $10 or $12 it costs per 5 gallons from a water delivery service. Start saving money today! Order an EcoloBlue™ 28 today and say "hello" to water independence and substantial savings on your monthly drinking water bills. Comes in silver, red, white, blue, black and green. One year warranty
http://www.ecoloblue.com/homeoffice.html?location=feature_link
Here are two snippets about the economy. The links below if you find it interesting you might want to go to the links listed below.
Many retired Americans are becoming engulfed in consumer debt and filing for bankruptcy as a result. One report shows that people 55 and older are filing for bankruptcy protection 12 percent more than they did 13 years ago and that they currently account for 22 percent of all bankruptcy filings in the United States.
How do senior citizens who have always paid their bills on time and taken pride in having pristine credit records get to the point that they need bankruptcy protection?
Well, rising health care costs and expensive prescription drugs are partly to blame. The expenses add up, quickly depleting savings accounts and forcing the elderly to run up credit card bills to pay for life's essentials. Many seniors simply thought their retirement could be financed on their Social Security and have learned the hard way that they did not adequately plan ahead. Some retirees are drained financially by their adult children who still need a helping hand, and others fall into financial ruins when their spouses pass away.
http://www.totalbankruptcy.com/bankruptcy_articles_senior_bankruptcy.htm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25804814/
Here is one article and link that says why it is a bad idea to do it. Again go to the link for the whole aricle. It is a little dated but has good info.
Why it may be a bad idea for retired people to file for personal bankruptcy
Posted on Thursday, September 21, 2006
Every month I meet with a number of people in Kitchener who are retired, and have more debt than they can handle, and they want to know if they should file for personal bankruptcy.Retired residents of Kitchener on a fixed income are in a difficult position. They worked their entire lives, but now find themselves on a reduced income. The cost of living increases faster than their fixed income pensions, and they find it hard to keep up. They use their credit cards to pay the bills, and after a few years they have accumulated more debt than they can ever hope to repay.I always start these meetings by explaining their options. They can start by asking family for help, which is usually a difficult decision. They can sell off any assets they no longer need, such as a car they don't drive, or a house that is larger than they need.
http://www.bankruptcy-kitchener.com/blog/2006/09/why-it-may-be-bad-idea-for-retired.html
Oil price of $100 a barrel on horizon
By Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos in London and Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: September 2 2008 20:17 Last updated: September 3 2008 00:03
Oil prices sank to a five-month low of just more than $105 a barrel on Tuesday as traders turned their sights on signs that slower growth was spreading beyond the US into Europe, Japan and even emerging markets.
The fall led some analysts to suggest that oil prices could move back below $100 a barrel, a level not seen since March, after fears that US oil supplies could be severely disrupted by hurricane Gustav proved unfounded.
“With the fear of Gustav now gone, a downside ‘speed bump’ will have effectively been removed as far as crude oil prices are concerned, and we expect values to start tracking lower once again,” said Edward Meir, of MF Global in New York.
The slide in oil prices could be short-lived in the light of Iran stepping up efforts to persuade fellow Opec members to cut output when they meet in Vienna next week.
Iran, one of the more influential members of the group and traditionally a price hawk, wants countries to cut output to previously agreed limits to remove supplies left on the market after falls in demand.
If the other 12 members of Opec agree with Iran, this would reduce world oil supply of almost 88m barrels a day by between 500,000 and 1m barrels, probably from October.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92664318-7921-11dd-9d0c-000077b07658.html
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Some people never learn from history,
Iraqis buy billions in U.S. arms The Iraqi defense minister's top military adviser, General Mohan al-Furayji, in beige camo, inspects an M1A1 Abrams tank. Iraq is considering buying 140 of them in a deal that could be worth as much as $2.16 billion. By Charles Levinson, USA .... "The American tanks are very modern and capable, but we still don't know if this tank is in the best interests of the Iraqi army," said al-Furayji, like a shopper in a Baghdad bazaar feigning a lack of interest to get a better price. The delegation of U.S. and Iraqi generals, now playing salesmen and customers, climbed atop the tank. Al-Furayji and his aides peered down the hatch into the tank's nerve center, where the crew of four operates. Traveling 45 mph, carrying 17 rounds of 120mm ammunition that can hit a dime in the dead of night at 3,000 meters thanks to a laser range-finder and thermal-imaging night sights, the M1A1 Abrams tank is "the most battle proven tank in the world," Lt. Col. Tim Renshaw said. The Iraqi officers on hand included some of the Iraqi army's most senior commanders of armored forces. They've experienced this tank's lethal capabilities firsthand. In the 1991 Gulf War, their older Russian tanks were blinded by the thick black smoke that billowed from Kuwait's oil wells after Saddam Hussein ordered them set ablaze. The American tank's superior thermal imaging system allowed them to see perfectly and easily crush their enemy. For Luckey, it makes an effective sales pitch. "That's why you guys got your (butts) kicked," he told the Iraqi generals, before they flew back to Baghdad to consult with their bosses on the sale's pros and cons. http://www.usatoday.com/news/military/2008-08-18-iraqtanks_N.htm
(the complete article is here)
Some people do, i will bet on the ones that do learn
With Gustav approaching New Orleans Residents stocking up on AR-15’s and ammo
Published on August 28th, 2008
We just got a call from Devline Rossell, a charter captain based out of Venice, Louisiana. He was shopping in New Orleans to get some supplies before the arrival of Gustav (currently listed as a tropical storm that has left at least 22 dead in the Caribbean) and reported that the item most in demand was not food, clothing or shelter.
“I just left a sporting goods store and you would think that the number-one selling item would be plywood or potable water or gasoline right now,” he said. “Apparently it is AR-15s and .223 ammo. I watched at least 20 people buy AR-15s and cases of .223.”
Can’t say I’m surprised. After the nightmare that was Katrina I think it would be unwise for anyone to assume the state, local or federal government could guarantee his or her personal safety during a natural disaster. Of course, I think it is foolish to assume that under any circumstance.
The AR buying spree demonstrates that people don’t think of it as an “assault weapon” but rather an arm that is ideally suited for self-defense, which it is. I also suspect that for some of the folks this is their first firearm. Goes to show that not only is there no such thing as an atheist in a foxhole but that there is no such thing as a gun-control advocate in one either.
http://www.dvorak.org/blog/?p=22379
CDC: Salmonella outbreak appears to be over
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration said they found strong evidence to implicate jalapeno and serrano peppers, and a farm in Mexico, in the largest outbreak of foodborne illness in a decade. Investigators were unable to clear domestic and imported tomatoes, however, although the evidence against tomatoes is weaker.
http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1468256 (the whole story is here)
More thoughts on Salmonella, and how some framers are going to handle trying to minimize
Fish oil appears to help against heart failure August 31, 2008 - 11:44am
By MARIA CHENG AP Medical Writer
MUNICH, Germany (AP) - Fish oil supplements may work slightly better than a popular cholesterol-reducing drug to help patients with chronic heart failure, according to new research released Sunday.
Chronic heart failure is a condition that occurs when the heart becomes enlarged and cannot pump blood efficiently around the body.
With few effective options for heart failure patients, the findings could give patients a potential new treatment and could change the dietary recommendations for them, said Dr. Jose Gonzalez Juanatey, a spokesman for the European Society of Cardiology, who was not connected to the research.
"This reinforces the idea that treating patients with heart failure takes more than just drugs," Juanatey said.
...
Previous studies that investigated the benefits of omega-3 fatty acids have largely been observational, and have lacked a direct comparison to a placebo. It has also been unknown whether taking fish oil supplements would be as good as eating fish.
"This study changes the certainty of the evidence we have about fish oils," said Dr. Douglas Weaver, president of the American College of Cardiology.
Weaver said that guidelines in the United States would likely change to recommend that more heart patients eat more fish or take supplements. "This is a low-tech solution and could help all patients with cardiovascular problems."
(the complete article is at)
___
On the Net:
http://www.lancet.com/
http://www.escardio.org/
http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1469764
Monday, September 1, 2008
Congress made Labor Day a federal holiday in 1894.[1] All fifty states have made Labor Day a state holiday.
Traditionally, Labor Day is celebrated by most Americans as the symbolic end of the summer.
Labor Day has been celebrated on the first Monday in September in the United States since the 1880s. The form for the celebration of Labor Day was outlined in the first proposal of the holiday—a street parade to exhibit to the public "the strength and esprit de corps of the trade and labor organizations," followed by a festival for the workers and their families. This became the pattern for Labor Day celebrations. Speeches by prominent men and women were introduced later, as more emphasis was placed upon the economic and civil significance of the holiday. Still later, by a resolution of the American Federation of Labor convention of 1909, the Sunday preceding Labor Day was adopted as Labor Sunday and dedicated to the spiritual and educational aspects of the labor movement.
Today, Labor Day is often regarded as a day of rest and, compared to the May 1 Labour Day celebrations in most countries, parades, speeches or political demonstrations are more low-key, although especially in election years, events held by labor organizations often feature political themes and appearances by candidates for office. Forms of celebration include picnics, barbecues, fireworks displays, water sports, and public art events. Families with school-age children take it as the last chance to travel before the end of summer. Some teenagers and young adults view it as the last weekend for parties before returning to school. However, as of late, schools have begun well before Labor Day, as early as the July 24 in many urban districts, including major southern cities in the United States such as Atlanta, Miami, and Los Angeles. In addition, Labor Day marks the beginning of the season for the National Football League and NCAA College Football. The NCAA usually plays their first games the weekend of Labor day, with the NFL traditionally playing their first game the Thursday following Labor Day.
With the holiday in mind, kids going back to school and Winter coming on, people will be trying to get in their last of the year outdoor activities done. So i will post a few good articles about outdoor activity, in todays blog.
This one is a comman occurance for the hiker, climbers or someone with kids.
The Cure: Head Injuries
To tell the difference between a bad bump and a life-threatening blow, follow these crucial steps.
by: Tom Wilmes
Serious head injuries are rare in the wilderness. But get hit square on the melon by a falling rock, and the resulting brain swelling can cause dangerous intracranial pressure. Unlike skin gashes and broken bones, traumatic brain injuries don't always bleed or even cause pain, making early diagnosis tricky.Diagnosis
Since brain injuries can occur without exterior wounds, the best indicator of serious trauma is a person's level of consciousness, says Jeffrey Isaac, curriculum director at Wilderness Medical Associates.
Use the AVPU scale to establish a person's alertness and monitor any deterioration in brain function. The farther down the scale (A is the best, U the worst) the person registers, the more serious the brain injury.
(A) Victim is Alert and oriented; he knows who he is, where he is, and what happened.
(V) You get a response to Verbal stimuli, but victim is confused and disoriented.
(P) Victim responds only to Painful stimuli, like pinching his arm or rubbing his breastbone.
(U) Victim is Unresponsive to all of the above.
Record any periods of unconsciousness. Blackouts lasting longer than two to three minutes indicate a serious head injury, especially if accompanied by persistent disorientation.
Because brain swelling can develop slowly, evaluate the victim's mental state for 24 hours after the injury.
Watch for behavioral indicators like combativeness, restlessness, or acting drunk, as well as severe headache, nausea, and persistent vomiting.
Treatment
Move the victim to a safer location if necessary. Don't leave a victim in a dangerous place or where you can't treat life-threatening injuries just because you are unable to stabilize the spine, says Isaac. Recent studies have shown that cervical spine damage occurs in a tiny percentange of victims with traumatic head injuries. As a result, new first aid protocols recommend spine "protection" over stabilization when hazardous conditions require moving the victim.
Monitor a victim's breathing and pulse rate, and keep him hydrated and warm. Treat for shock by raising the legs while you gauge his level of consciousness.
Initial disorientation or confusion can improve in a short period. The duration a person remains unconscious isn't as important as how quickly he returns to normal brain functioning, says Isaac.
Contrary to popular belief, the victim of a head injury can doze or sleep as long as he is monitored and woken up every few hours to check alertness.
Initiate immediate evacuation for victims whose alertness or memory remains severely altered, or worsens over time. Even if a victim recovers enough to walk out, he should still seek medical attention. http://www.backpacker.com/june_2008_health_head_injury_first_aid/skills/12429
Here are a couple of recipes to cooking out.
Easy Bar-B-Que Ribs by Kathy and Bruce Jacobs
Ingredients
3 pounds boneless beef ribs
1 bottle barbeque sauce (we use a doctored version of Bill Johnstons - see end of recipe for doctoring instructions)
Preparation Steps
Place ribs in liner pan
Cover with sauce (use whole jar)
Cook until internal meat temperature is 165Grill asparagus spears slightly (optional)
Notes
Sauce Option: I doctor the sauce with:
1/2 cup honey
Liberal amount of garlic
4-6 drops Tabasco
Tender and Juicy Dutch Oven Pot Roast by Kathy JacobsLooking for an easy pot roast recipe? Check this one out!
Ingredients
5 pound pot roast
4 potatoes
3 onions
6 carrots
Garlic powder or salt
Onion powder or salt
Preparation Steps
1. Cut potatoes, onions, and carrots into pieces. Set aside.
2. Rub pot roast with the garlic and onion powders.
3. In a fry pan or liner pan, brown sides quickly to seal juices.
4. Place pot roast in liner pan.
5. Surround with vegetable pieces. Do not over fill the liner. If you can't see the meat, you have too many vegetable pieces.
6. Place liner pan in prepared Dutch Oven.
7. Cook for 2 to 2.5 hours at about 325 degrees. Don't peek too often, as opening the lid lets out the steam. The steam is what keeps the roast moist and tender.
8. Meat is done when tender.
9. Let stand 10 to 15 minutes before carving to eat.
If you are feeding a group, do one pot roast per Dutch Oven. Stack the Dutch Ovens with coals on the bottom of the stack, between each oven, and on the top of each stack. For safety reasons, don't stack more than 3 or 4 high.
The Basics of Bike Riding
Bike riding is one of the simplest ways to have fun in a variety of settings. It is easily learned and not easily forgotten. But there are things to know that will help you, both in technique and equipment. Here in Bike Riding 101 you'll learn all about bikes and bike riding.
Bicycle riding is a fun and popular activity among kids. And with more and more kids becoming overweight, encouraging kids to be more active and ride their bikes regularly can lead to a healthier lifestyle.
Unfortunately, bicycle riding can also lead to kids getting injured or even dying, especially when they don't wear a helmet. According to the CDC, 'more than 500,000 children go to hospital emergency rooms or doctors' offices due to bicycle injuries' each year.
Although it is a simple way to avoid getting hurt, far too many kids don't wear a helmet when riding their bike. In fact, one survey by the National SAFE KIDS Campaign found that 'only 41 percent of all children observed on bicycles, inline skates, skateboards and scooters wear helmets' and that '35 percent of all children observed wearing helmets wear them improperly', either because the chin strap was unattached, loose, or the helmet was tilted. In our own Bicycle Helmet Poll, only about half of children 'always' wear a helmet.
In addition to setting a good example and always wearing a helmet yourself, here are ten tips to teach your children to encourage safe bike riding:
Always wear a bike helmet
Stop and check traffic before riding into a street
Don't ride at night
Obey traffic signs and signals
Ride on the right-hand side of the street
Check your brakes before riding.
Give cars and pedestrians the right-of-way
Wear light or bright-colored clothing so that motorists can see you
Be extra careful turning left - motorists don't expect it
Avoid broken pavement, loose gravel and leaves - which can cause you to lose control of your bike.
But remember that simply wearing a helmet is not enough. Your child has to wear it correctly for it to keep him safe. You should choose a bike helmet that meets current safety standards. Other tips to help you select and correctly use a bike helmet include that you should:
Start children wearing helmets with their first tricycles or play vehicles.
Use foam pads inside to fit the helmet snugly so it doesn't move on the head.
Fit the helmet so the front is just above the top of the eyebrows.
Teach your child to wear a helmet so that it covers the upper part of the forehead and sits level on the head.
Adjust the two side straps so they meet in a "V" right under each ear.
Adjust the chin strap snugly under the chin.
Make it tight enough so the helmet pulls down when the child opens his mouth.
Check often to make sure straps stay snug and the helmet stays level on the head.
Teaching a Kid (and Adult) to Ride a Bicycle
by David Mozer
The traditional method of teaching a kid to bicycle was to run along side them holding them up-right and pushing them until they final did it under their own power and coordination. A tool to help with this is the " EZ-Bar". More on common mistakes while teaching bicycling.
Contemporary bicycle education specialist advocate an alternative method for teaching bicycling that isolates some of the separate skills needed to bike ride. Using this approach (detailed below), the initial experience for the student is far less overwhelming because they aren't trying to master everything (balance, pedaling, steering, etc.) at once. In fact, isolated, the individual skills need for bicycling are in fact pretty quick and easy for most people to learn. Consequently the whole process generally goes fairly quickly -- without the frustration and bumps of traditional methods. Click here for user feedback and comments from parents and kids who have tried this approach.
Here is the sequence teaching child and adults to ride a bike:
Feeling the balance:
Select a bike where the seat can be lowered enough so the child can be seated and have both feet flat on the ground. Lower the seat to the point that the learner can put there feet on the ground. Remove the training wheels. You can also remove the pedals, but most students seem to be able to go through the first exercises without any problems with the pedals attached.
Find a grassy field with a gentle downhill of 30 yards or so, that then flattens out or goes uphill slightly. Ideally the grass is short enough that it doesn't create too much drag on the wheels, but still can provide a soft landing in case of a fall..
Strap a helmet on the child's head. Tuck in shoelaces. Long pants (rubber banded, strapped or tucked into the socks) and gloves can add additional protection if it is warranted.
Go about 15 yards up the hill and hold the bike while the child gets on. Have him or her put both feet on the ground, then you should be able to let go of the bike and nothing should happen.
Tell your child to lift his or her feet about an inch off the ground and coast down the hill or scoot along. The objective here is to get a feel for balancing on the bike. Try to resist holding the bike to steady the learner. Because the bike will coast slowly, the cyclists can put his or her feet down if they get scared. He or she might want you to run beside the bike the first few times; do so, but don't hold the bike. Let the child feel the balance. Give a lot of praise for every improvement. Help count the seconds that they balance and make a game of it. Hopefully, they improve on almost every pass.
Repeat until your child feels comfortable coasting and doesn't put his or her feet down to stop. Throughout the progression there is no need to rush moving on to the next step.
Add pedaling:
Re attach the pedals, if they were removed. Now have your child put his or her feet on the pedals and coast down. After several runs, have him or her begin pedaling as he or she is rolling.
Repeat coasting/pedaling until your child feels comfortable, then move up the hill. When the child is comfortable coasting/pedaling at this level, raise the saddle in small increments and do a few more coast/pedaling runs. You can add some exercises where they stop by braking sooner than they would just from friction with the ground.
Riding in a straight line:
Go to a flat part of the field, cul-de-sac, empty unused parking lot, etc., and practice starting from a standstill, riding in a straight line, stopping, and turning.
Starting from a standstill - Start with one pedal pointed at the handlebars (2 o'clock). This gives the rider a solid pedal stroke to power the bike and keep it steady until the other foot finds the pedal. Kids tend to want to rush and take short cuts on this and get off to very wobbly starts. Work to have them develop habits so that they consistently get smooth steady starts.
Riding straight - Look straight ahead. Keep the elbows and knees loose and pedal smooth circles. When a novice rider turns his or her head, their arms and shoulders follow, causing the bike to swerve.
Stopping - Apply both brakes at the same time (if the bike has both front and rear brakes). Using just the front brake can launch the rider over the handlebars. Using just the rear brake limits the rider to just 20 or 30 percent of braking power and the bike is more likely skid.
Add turning:
Turning - Initially, slow down before entering a corner. Turning is a combination of a little leaning and a very little steering. Keep the inside pedal up and look through the turn. As confidence grows let the speed gradually increase.
When the cyclist is ready to get into any environment that includes cars they should ride like a car. (This may be a couple years later.) This keeps the kid from swooping and swerving on roads, running stop signs and riding on the wrong side of the road. See Teach Your Child Well: Bicycle Safety Issues.
Going for a bike ride
As kids master the skills of bicycling and want to go on longer rides, keep it interesting at their level: bring snacks, plan appropriate rest breaks (initially, these may be a mile apart), stop for fun activities (i.e. play ground, beach, chase butterflies, ice cream shop, etc.) and invite your kid's friend along.
Note: the highest rate of bike-related head injuries is among boys 10-14 years old. For more information on helmets go to www.ibike.org/education/helmet.htm.
Feedback and comments from parents and kids who have tried this approach.
Tips and Common Mistakes in teaching bicycling
Don't make learning day the first day on a new bike. You eliminate some of the avalanche of new experiences and emotion, if you use a bike that they are familiar with (one they have had with training wheels or an older siblings), or one borrow from a friend. The new bike can be a reward for mastering two wheels. If you need to use a new bike put training wheels on it and let them get used to it for a couple weeks before before trying two wheels.
Don't us the one-training-wheel method. It doesn't teach balance and is not uniformly unstable.
If you use the hold-the-back-of-the-seat (better) or run-beside-the-bike method, don't trick your child by claiming you're holding on when you are not. If the child crashes, you erode trust, which erodes confidence. Before you begin a run, tell your child you plan to let go when he or she looks stable. When they are stable, tell them again that you are going to let go BEFORE you do. Make sure they stay stable before you release and then stick with them until they have substantially mastered the skill.
Don't expect the learning process will be crash-free -- though the one describe above likely will be. Be ready to comfort, coerce, cheerlead and bandage -- and possibly to wait for another day.
http://bicycling.about.com/od/howtoride/The_Basics_of_Bike_Riding.htm