Eeyore's News and View

Police agencies fear more crime in financial crisis
By Kevin Johnson, USA TODAY
The collapse of U.S. financial markets is forcing deep cuts in local police agencies and stoking fears among police chiefs that mass home foreclosures are bringing more crime to suburbs.
Problems created by the financial meltdown are starting to touch everything from police response times to unsolved crimes.
"As we see significant reductions, we'll be seeing increased response times, fewer cases solved and reduced services for victims of crime," says Prince William County, Va., Police Chief Charlie Deane. His $73 million budget could drop up to 30% next year because of declining property tax revenues.
Blocks of homes vacant from foreclosures are becoming magnets nationwide for gang members, drug users, prostitutes and thieves, who steal appliances and fixtures, Deane and other officers say.
At the same time, police agencies are dramatically reducing their forces as local governments struggle to allocate shrinking revenue from property and sales taxes to fund basic services.

"In this crisis, there are no good answers," says Sacramento Police Chief Rick Braziel, who is slashing 200 positions and may need to cut more.
In a survey of 180 police chiefs released last week by the Police Executive Research Forum, 45% said the economy had affected their agency's "ability to reduce crime."
Three-quarters of those polled by the law enforcement advisory group in late July cited a recent rise in at least one category of property crimes. Nearly 40% said the economic slowdown had resulted in decreased funding.
Cook County, Ill., Sheriff Thomas Dart has cut 200 jobs in two years because of falling revenues.
Last week, he declared a moratorium on evictions from homes because many "innocent" renters were getting tossed out after owner-landlords defaulted on mortgage payments.
The hundreds of vacant homes are expanding a blighted zone from traditionally troubled inner-city areas to wealthy suburbs northwest of Chicago.
Boston Police Commissioner Ed Davis says falling revenues have moved a plan to install 36 surveillance cameras in high-crime zones "off the table."
"We see this as just the first in a long series of reductions," Davis says. "It's hard to say how this is all gonna shake out. This is a time for real concern."
In the shadow of Palm Springs, Calif., Indio Police Chief Brad Ramos says Indio passed a law in April forcing owners of dozens of vacant homes to register the properties with the city. It holds them responsible for the upkeep of their properties. "Crime and the economy go hand in hand," he says.
Yet David Muhlhausen, a crime analyst at the conservative Heritage Foundation, says the relationship between crime and the economy "isn't always clear." During the Great Depression, there was no crime surge. "Crime is a function of opportunity," he says.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-10-16-crime-economy_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

The Prep Talk today is in line with the first article. If you are living in an Urban Area and you plan on sticking around the house if things turn bad. What i would do is look at what i could do around the house to make it more secure. This will start a 3 part series about surviving in the city during hard times. Not sure who the author is, it was anonymous.

INTRODUCTION

  While we all want to do our best to prepare for a coming crisis, and many

of us realize the city is perhaps the worst place to live, very few people

are really prepared to pack up the old Winnebago and head for the hills.

Most Americans, whether they're aware or not, are going to stay in the

cities.

  This is not a hasty decision for most people. Most of us depend on the

city for our livelihood, and we can be better prepared by continuing to live

in the city, earn a good income, and make preparations for exiting the city

at the appropriate time or by staying in the city and living off existing

supplies.

  This special report explains some of the most critical dangers of living

in a city and presents some solutions to surviving them. If you are one of

the people who has decided to stay in the city, you'll benefit greatly from

this information.

  CITIES ARE ARTIFICIAL

  Every city is an artificial construct. Cities formed as people came

together to conduct business, participate in social interaction, and benefit

from efficiencies in public services (such as schools, sewers, water, etc.)

and a common defense. Yet cities cannot survive alone. They need resources

from the country; most notably, food, water and electricity. While

electricity and water can sometimes be created or found within city limits,

the acreage requirements of food dictate that no city could possibly feed

its own people.

  Read that last phrase carefully: No city can feed its own people. Not one.

Cities are, by their very nature, dependent on the importation of food. The

advent of just-in-time delivery systems to our grocery stores means that

most cities would run out of food within a week if supplies were for some

reason disrupted.

  Remember, cities are not self-sufficient. Although they may seem to be in

2005, they have for a long time been entirely dependent on the American

farmer for their support, something almost all Americans take for granted

(except the farmer, of course.)

  RISKS IN THE CITY

  The city presents some serious risks during a crisis. The four most

serious ones are:

  1. the collapse of social order (riots),

  2. the failure of the water treatment and delivery systems,

  3. the depletion of food supplies and

  4. the failure of the power grid.

  While not every situation will appear in every city, every situation will

most certainly appear in some cities. Will that include yours? We'll tackle

these one at a time:

  1. The Collapse of Social Order

  "Social order" is a delicate thing, and it exists as a psychological

barrier that could easily collapse under the right conditions. We all saw

this during the L. A. Riots following the Rodney King trial verdict as

citizens of L. A. set fire to their own town, yanked people from vehicles

and beat them literally to death, and even fired guns at firemen attempting

to save their buildings! More recently we were all witness to the looting,

violence and total breakdown of society following Hurricane Katrina in New

Orleans.

  What allowed this to happen? Simple: the simultaneous melting away of the

psychological barrier of "order." Once people realized 911 couldn't handle

the load, or was offline, that the local police were helpless or had simply

abandoned their posts, "Law and Order" ceased to exist in their minds. They

then conducted their lives in the way they always wanted to, but couldn't

because of the police. That is, they ran out to the local stores and just

took whatever they wanted (looting). They took our their racial frustration

on innocent victims who happened to be driving through the area, and they

let loose on a path of destruction that only stopped when men with rifles

(the National Guard) were called in to settle things down. In other words,

only the threat of immediate death stopped the looting and violence. Rifles

work wonders.

  Imagine store owners lying prone on the roofs of their stores with

AK-47's, firing at anyone who approached. This is exactly what happened in

Los Angeles. But worse, imagine the lawless horde firing at the rescue

copters trying to bring in supplies to the desperate masses.

  The National Guard eventually got things under control. This event was

isolated, however, to one city. Imagine a hundred cities experiencing the

same thing. Will the National Guard be able to handle the load? Not likely.

What about local police? They aren't fools; if things look bad enough, they'

ll grab their families and head for the hills, just like they did in New

Orleans. No pension is worth getting killed for. A few U. S. cities could be

transformed into literal war zones overnight. It would require all-out

martial law and military force to have any chance whatsoever of bringing

order to these streets. And the reality is that there are not enough

military in the USA to secure all of the cities if this happens.

  This collapse of social order is perhaps the greatest risk of staying in

the city during a crisis. What, exactly, would cause this collapse of social

order? Lack of three things: food, water, and money. When people run out of

food, some will begin ransacking their neighborhood, searching for something

to eat. (Remember that in a city, a "neighbor" does not mean the same thing

as a "neighbor" in the country. They are not necessarily your friends.) It

won't take long, then, for violence to take over in some cities. While

certain regions will certainly manage to keep things under control and

people will form lines at the local (depleted) Red Cross shelter, other

cities will see an explosion of violence. Imagine the gang-infested regions

of L. A., Chicago, New York, St. Louis & New Orleans. Do you think those

people are going to stand in line and wait? They already have guns; now they

finally get to use them. Pent-up racial tensions & hostilities will simply

serve as justification for shooting people of the same or other color in

order to get their food.

  Even if the food somehow gets into the cities, lack of money (due to the

government not sending out checks) could cause the same thing. Eventually,

lack of money results in looting and mass theft. As the stealing balloons,

it also results in a collapse of social order. Water; the same thing (but

faster). The collapse of social order is also very dangerous because it

doesn't require any "actual" collapse of the power grid, telecommunications,

transportation or banking. Social order is a psychological artifact. It is a

frame of mind, and any global panic can quickly remove the mental barrier

that right now keeps people basically "lawful."

  THE FAILURE OF WATER TREATMENT AND DELIVERY SYSTEMS

  Will the water treatment facilities fail during a crisis? Many will. Some

won't. The problem lies in figuring out whether yours will. Certainly, they

depend on electricity, and testing conducted on some plants has already

revealed weaknesses in the system.

  In one such test, the water treatment plant released a fatal dose of

fluoride into the water system when tested. The computers thought they were

99 years behind in releasing minute doses of fluoride, so they made up the

difference. If you happened to be downstream, drinking that water, you were

dead. Fluoride, no matter what misinformed dentists tell you, is actually a

fatal poison. A major crisis likely to demonstrate this fact in more than

one city.

  The most important question here, though, is about what will happen when

the water stops flowing (or if it is flowing, but it's not drinkable). As

you are probably aware, while people can live without food for long periods

of time (2-3 weeks), water is needed on a daily basis. You can go 2-3 days

without it, at most, but beyond that, you'll quickly turn to dust.

  That means people will do anything to get water, because to not have it

means death. And guess where it's going to be the most difficult to actually

get water? You guessed it: in the cities. During the first day of the water

crisis, many people still won't figure out what's going on. They'll figure

it's a temporary breakage of a water main and the government will get it

fixed within hours. As those hours stretch into the next day, these people

will get very worried.

  By the second day, more and more people will realize the water isn't

coming. At that point, you could easily see a breakdown of social order, as

described in the previous section (as you can see, these things all tend to

cause each other.). People will begin their "search for water," and the

first place they're likely to go is where they always go for liquids: the

grocery store, the local Wal-Mart, the 7-11. The shelves will be cleaned out

rather quickly.

  Beyond that (because those liquids aren't going to last long), you're

going to see people engaged in a mass-exodus from the cities. They'll take

the gas they have left in their tanks and they'll leave the city in search

of water. Some will go to "Grandma's house" out in the country where they

might at least find a pond or stream to drink from. Others will simply go on

an expanded looting mission, stopping at any house they see and asking the

residents (with a gun in their face, likely) if they have any water to

"donate."

  As a result of all this, if water stops flowing, here are the events you

can expect to see in some of the worse-off cities:

  * Looting of all the grocery stores by the second or third day (remember

New Orleans?)

  * Minor outbreaks of violence during the looting. Shop owners, for

example, may attempt to defend their shops with firearms (ala L. A. Riots)

  * Mass exodus of residents from the city in search of water

  * Ransacking of any houses or farms within a gas-tank radius of the city,

presumably by desperate people with guns

  * Mass traffic jams on the outbound highways as people run out of gas and

abandon their vehicles (if bad enough, this could actually block the

highways and trap people in the cities) (Remember Hurricane Rita?)

  * Mass outbreak of water-borne diseases as people use streams and rivers

as both a water fountain and a bathroom. People crapping upstream are going

to infect the people drinking downstream. Very few have any kind of water

filtration device. That last point is really critical. Once the water flow

stops, disease is going to strike.

  THE DEPLETION OF FOOD SUPPLIES

  The food supplies will likely dwindle quickly as we approach a possible

crisis due to people stocking up just in case. Once the crisis actually

hits, expect to see breakdowns in the transportation sector that will result

in major delays in food delivery. This means food may arrive in sporadic

fashion in some cities (if at all).

  Once this happens, food suddenly becomes really valuable to people (even

though they take it for granted today). And that means any small shipment of

food that arrives will be quickly grabbed and eaten or stored. It only takes

one week without food to remind people how much they actually need it, so

expect the atmosphere to be that of a "near panic" if food is delayed by as

little as three days. The level of panic will vary from city to city. Some

cities or towns may experience very little difficulty receiving food. Others

may face near-starvation circumstances.

  Remember, the cities depend entirely on food shipped in from the farms and

food processing companies. Also, note that if there's a water problem as

mentioned in the previous section, and the mass exodus begins, the highways

may be jammed up at critical locations, causing gridlock for the trucking

industry. If we're lucky, some trucks will continue to roll. If we're not,

assume that nothing gets through.

  A shortage of food ultimately results in the same behavior as a shortage

of water. First, people eat what's in the pantry, then they loot the grocery

stores. After that, with all local supplies depleted and no hope on the

horizon, they leave the city and start ransacking nearby homes. Some will

hunt in nearby forests, but most city-dwellers don't know how to hunt. In

any case, anyone with the means to leave the city will likely do so soon

after their food shortage begins.

We will cover the last two in the next two weeks.

This is a big deal around the Country right now. Around here they are talking about only having 2 or 3 unpaid days off.
Chicago mayor to shut down government for six days
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Facing a huge hole in Chicago's current and upcoming budgets, Mayor Richard Daley announced on Tuesday a plan to partially shut down city government for six days.
Along with several other measures, the mayor's plan was aimed at saving $62 million for the city's corporate or operating fund, which currently faces a $469 million shortfall.
Under the plan, city employees, with the exception of mostly public safety workers, would not work and would not be paid for the day after Thanksgiving or for Christmas Eve and New Year's Eve this year and in 2009.
Daley also said the fiscal 2009 budget he will unveil on Wednesday will eliminate 1,346 currently vacant positions and will include various cost-cutting or revenue-raising measures.
"I know that no one will be completely satisfied with our recommendations," the mayor said in a statement. "But, if we work together and responsibly cut spending this year, we'll be taking an important step toward addressing the financial challenges we'll still face in the years ahead."
On Friday, the mayor announced the consolidation of several city departments in a move that will cut almost 240 jobs and save Chicago about $5 million a year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/domesticNews/idUSTRE49D7W820081014?feedType=RSS&feedName=domesticNews&rpc=22&sp=true

The Founders' Amazing Monetary System Would Solve Today's Monetary Crisis
The American Founding Fathers originally intended a monetary system quite different from the one we have now. In fact, they had hoped to prevent many of the fiscal and economic problems with which our present monetary system is afflicted. Their system relied on four major principles.
The people's representatives in congress must develop and carefully control the money system and make sure the amount of money remains stable. That's why the Constitution gives this power exclusively to Congress in Article I, Section 8.
To be honest, a medium of exchange must have “intrinsic” value or in other words it must have value in and of itself. The Founders knew only money based on gold and silver would provide this value.
There must be no fractional reserve banking. As Jefferson said: “No one has a natural right to the trade of a money lender but he who has the money to lend.”
In order to prevent undue pressure on the demand for money and to make sure federal officials did not have so much power they could be “bought off”, the Founders clearly said that money from the federal treasury can be spent only for the 20 powers listed in Article I, Section 8, and then only if such expenditures were for the “general welfare” or in other words if such expenditures benefited the whole nation and not specific groups, locations, or businesses.
Let's look at what happened to each of these founding principles.
The Big Bankers Take Control of United States Monetary System
With the adoption of the Constitution, Jefferson hoped the nation would go back to pre-revolution days with government issuing its money based on a precious metal standard. The treasury could then set up branches for loaning money and all payments of interest would go to the general funds of the nation, thereby greatly reducing the required taxes.
The first of Jefferson's hopes was realized when the gold and silver standard was explicitly written into the Constitution. However, his second hope was shattered when Alexander Hamilton was appointed Secretary of the Treasury and came up with a plan to monetize the nation's mammoth war debt by issuing bonds and selling them to private banks. He also urged the President and Congress to allow these bankers to temporarily (for twenty years) establish a private bank in the name of the United States and be responsible for issuing money , controlling the amount, fixing its value, and financing the United States government. It was this last factor which appealed to President Washington.
There was, of course, no Constitutional authority to have the federal government set up such a bank, but Hamilton persuasively argued a theory of "implied powers" which has seriously damaged the whole concept of "limited" government ever since. Although the argument was sufficiently strong to impress Congress, Washington was uncomfortable with it. In fact, he was actually contemplating a veto of the banking act when Hamilton drew him aside and filled his mind with such glowing promises of stability and prosperity under this "temporary" expediency, that Washington finally overrode his professional instinct as one of America's most successful farmers and signed the bill. Jefferson later accused Hamilton of complicating the whole scheme with such elaborate trappings that it had confused the President. It turned out that Washington's original instinctive anxieties concerning the dangers of the bill were fully justified.
Over the decades since then and through a series of man-made boom and bust cycles, the powerful banking lobby, with the behind-the-scenes pressure from Wall Street, has persuaded Congress to give them permanent authority over our money and credit in violation of the Constitution and the express will of the people. This power was permanently consolidated in 1913 into the misnamed Federal Reserve System, which is neither “federal” nor “reserve.” Time and time again the big bankers who privately control the Federal Reserve have shown elected officials in Washington that indeed they are the ones that have the real power in our land.
The very basis which gives money its value is destroyed
Anything of value requires the input of labor. If it requires little or no labor, the item becomes worthless. Historically, gold and silver have always been in demand and have always required labor to accumulate, therefore giving sustainable value. Because of its universal demand it is a perfect medium of exchange.
As do-good politicians desired to expend large sums of money for programs not authorized in the Constitution, they ran up against a major problem. If a program would cost, say $100 million of new money, then that much gold and silver would have to be deposited to back up the new money. This requirement provided a real restraint and roadblock to huge give-away programs, such as FDR's New Deal. So what did he do? In 1933, he signed an executive order taking the backing of gold from our dollars! LBJ did the same thing to fund his Great Society in 1964 and took the redeemability of silver off of our dollars. Now, not having to put up the gold and silver, the politicians could merely crank up the printing presses and distribute money at will. This, of course, came with the reminder to the welfare recipients to remember these politicians at the next election.
The Origin of Fractional Reserve Banking or Making Money out of Nothing
Dr. W. Cleon Skousen explains how banks came to "make money out of nothing" and how they hooked the United States Government into the deal:
“We call this magic formula ‘fractional banking' or ‘reserve banking.' Here is how it all began and how it works.
“Several hundred years ago the goldsmiths of Europe were under the necessity of building substantial vaults for their precious metals. As one might have expected, it wasn't long before many others asked to leave their gold in these vaults for safekeeping. The goldsmiths consented and gave each depositor a certificate which could be used to reclaim the precious metal at any time. These certificates were therefore considered ‘as good as gold' and soon circulated in business channels as though they were gold.
“In fact, they were so much more convenient to handle than gold that very few depositors ever went back to the goldsmiths except to make more deposits.
“In very short order it became entirely apparent to the goldsmiths that since only a small percentage of the depositors came back for their gold, the goldsmiths only had to keep enough on hand as a ‘reserve' to satisfy those who did come back. Realizing this, the goldsmiths decided they could safely issue considerably more gold certificates than the amount of gold ‘on deposit.' By this set of fortuitous circumstances they had discovered how a shrewd goldsmith could issue certificates on gold he didn't have and thus become super rich by ‘making money out of nothing.' Furthermore, these spurious certificates could be used to buy up all kinds of tangible property or they could be loaned out on interest. Here indeed was the royal road to wealth.
“Of course, it was important to keep a good "reserve" for those who did want to cash in their certificates, but this ordinarily involved only a fraction of the certificates in circulation. Thus ‘fractional banking' was born.
Fractional Bankers Do Something Ordinary People Cannot Do
“It will be immediately realized that ‘making money out of nothing' is selling something the money managers don't really have.
“We know it is considered criminal fraud if a person sells a house he doesn't own. The same thing is true if he sells something which doesn't exist and never will exist. Then how do the bankers get away with it? The answer is rather amazing.
“Apparently the bankers saw the danger of their position and decided to protect themselves by getting the government in on the deal. They reasoned that the government certainly wouldn't prosecute the bankers if the government itself were getting a significant benefit from the operation. So this is what the bankers set out to achieve, first in Europe and more recently in the United States.
“The trick was to create a privately owned bank for the whole country. By cutting the government in on the benefits, it became feasible to call the bank by a name which implied that it was an official branch of the government. This is precisely what William Paterson did when he set up the Bank of England. Similar banks soon appeared in every nation in Europe.
“Each of these central banks became the most powerful influence in its particular country, both economically and politically. It became the manager of money and credit for the nation. It handled major investments in agriculture, industry, homes, and factories. Best of all, it loaned money to the government, especially in times of an emergency such as a war.
“The governors of these banks soon found themselves in the position of managing the affairs of government as well as the economy.
Central Banks Suffer from Two Temptations
“The record shows that when the managers of a central bank in any particular country are looking around for ways and means to accumulate more wealth, they are often tempted by two things which are inherently evil and totally destructive to the foundation of civilized countries. One is to encourage an involvement in war so the nation will be forced to borrow heavily. Bonds (which are really government IOUs paying substantial interest to the lenders) are considered to be a most valuable form of collateral assets in a central bank.
“The other temptation is to promote a cycle of ‘boom and bust' economics. This simply consists of starting a boom with generous loans at low interest and easy credit and after a few years suddenly raising the interest rates, calling in loans, and bankrupting homeowners, industries, farmers, and millions of people who had trusted the bank to continue its policies.
“Some economists, including Karl Marx, have tried to maintain that these boom-and-bust cycles are an inescapable characteristic of a free-market economy. The truth of the matter is that these so-called boom-and-bust cycles are primarily a phenomenon of manipulated economics, engineered by men who find themselves in an extremely powerful position to control money and credit but seem to lack the moral integrity to resist the opportunity of fleecing the common people who have genuinely trusted them.”
The Founders' Answer to the Wall Street Mess
First of all, the people must recognize the current “crisis” is man-made and the market is trying to adjust to unnatural tampering of it by scheming financiers and politicians.
Secondly, it will do no good to put more band-aids on the boiler in the form of more debt brought about by the issuance of worthless money and credit created out of nothing. Eventually this inflated monetary bubble is going to burst unless it is gradually deflated by making basic changes to our system to restore sanity and honesty.
Thirdly, Americans must be aware that this is another attempt to further consolidate economic power. Politicians say that the credit markets are drying up, and yet the largest banks like Bank of America and J P Morgan Chase seem to have the money necessary to buyout the failing companies and banks. We seem to be fast approaching the predicted time when no one will be able to buy or sell without obeying the demands of those who have consolidated enormous economic power over us.
Fourthly, by their own admission, most politicians in Washington do not have answers to this current situation. It is definitely time, with an election coming soon, to make wholesale changes in public officials who really know the Founders proven, workable solutions and have the courage to implement them.
It is interesting that CNN, in a recent attempt to find answers, turned to a congressman who does know the answers to the current crisis. Here is what Congressman Ron Paul told CNN when asked his opinion about the proposed $700 billion bailout:
“Well, I think that's a mistake because we don't have the money. But that doesn't mean you have to do nothing. I mean, we could reform the system. We could return to sound money. We could balance our budget. We could change our foreign policy. We could take care of our people at home. We could lower taxes. There are a lot of things that we can do. But the worst thing that we can do is perpetuate the bad policies that gave us this trouble in the first place, and that is that we no longer, over the last quite a few decades, believed in free-market capitalism. Capital is supposed to come from savings. We're supposed to work hard and save.
“As a matter of fact, the Chinese work hard, right now, and they save, and they're buying up the world. But we borrow and spend and consume, and now it's caught up to us and it's undermining our whole system. ... So this $700 billion is not going to do it.
“… this plan does not help Main Street. This is Wall Street in big trouble and sucking in Main Street, now, and dumping all the bills on Main Street. ... And you can't solve the problem of inflation, which is the creation of money and credit out of thin air, by more money and credit out of thin air, and not changing policy. We have to change basic policy….
"Yes, it would be painful, but it wouldn't last so long. What they're doing now, they're propping up a failed system so the agony lasts longer. They're doing exactly what we did in the Depression…. So, yes, there are going to be losses, but everybody lived beyond their means when the prices of houses were going up. Nobody cared about it. They kept borrowing against it. Oh, yes, that was fine and dandy. Everybody was making money, and homeowners kept borrowing and living beyond their means. Now they have to live beneath their means….
"What the government is doing now -- and this new program is trying to prop up prices. You want the price structure to adjust. You want the price of houses to go down. You don't want to fix the price of housing. You can't price-fix. We've had too much of that. We need a market economy. We need to believe in ourselves. We need to believe and understand how the economy got us -- how the government got us into this mess. And believe me, it wouldn't be that tough. It would be a bad year. But, this way, it's going to be a bad decade."
Sincerely,
Earl Taylor, Jr.
P.S. Read Dr. Skousen's complete report on "The Urgent Need for a Comprehensive Monetary Reform".
http://www.nccs.net/newsletter/oct08nl_print.html

Markets feel the chill from China
Share prices tumble amid fears that downturn is spreading east
By Sarah ArnottThursday, 16 October 2008
Stock markets around the world suffered another day of huge losses yesterday as fears of the global recession spreading to China prompted a renewed bout of negative sentiment.
The FTSE 100 index of leading UK companies lost more than 7 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the US was down by almost 6 per cent by mid-afternoon. The gloom in credit crunch-hit Western economies deepened with UK unemployment figures showing a 164,000 rise in the three months to August, and US reports of the biggest monthly fall in retail sales for more than three years.
The sell-off overshadowed Gordon Brown's attempts to convene a global summit to tackle the economic crisis. There were also renewed concerns for the financial health of local authorities in Britain who have been hit by the collapse of banks in Iceland
The sell-off was prompted in part by warnings that China's economy, which has been expanding at breakneck speed for years, would "pause for breath". Guy Elliott, the finance director of Rio Tinto, the mining giant, said: "We are confident about the future in China, but at the moment there is a deceleration of demand that won't pick up again until next year."
His comments caused panic in the commodity markets. The oil price dropped by 5 per cent to a 13-month low, and copper, aluminium and nickel all slumped. Only gold, seen as a safe haven in troubled times, stayed stable.
Economists are already cutting forecasts for China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week predicted growth of 9.7 per cent this year and 9.3 per cent in 2009. The danger is that the health of China's economy is hard to measure, and Beijing's economic policy even harder to predict.
And just as its semi-command economy was central to the cheap-credit era that is now causing such a hangover in Western economies, so its response to the aftermath is the key to the world's recovery, said Diana Choyleva, a director at Lombard Street Research, a think-tank. "The combination of macroeconomic data and anecdotal evidence, such at that from Rio Tinto, gives an ambiguous message because GDP data for the first two quarters of the year do not show anything yet," she said. "But China has to have a slowdown and what is important is how Chinese policymakers respond."
Mining stocks, which have been boosted by China's rampant demand for commodities, were hit particularly hard. Concerns about weakening demand from the global powerhouse wiped 16.6 per cent off Rio Tinto's value by the end of the day – and 19.6 per cent and 22.27 per cent were knocked off the value of Xstrata and Kazakhmys respectively.
China's economic growth – which ran at 11.7 per cent last year – is a key factor in the high oil and commodity prices causing extra problems for developed economies wrestling with toxic combination of the credit crisis and slowing consumer spending. But if China follows the West into recession, the effect could be even more severe.
But it is too early to tell to what extent the West's recession will infect China, and even at about 9 per cent, the economy is still growing fast. Robin Geffen, the manager of the Neptune China Fund, says the impact of developed economies' demand is overplayed. "Not only is the rest of Asia geared towards China but it has very fast-growing domestic consumption as a percentage of GDP and a massive infrastructure spend," he said.
The Chinese government has been deliberately slowing growth through tight economic policies for the past 12 months to cool off an otherwise overheating economy. Loosening monetary policy would have real effect, as would using some of the vast reserves of cash.
"Monetary policy in particular has been quite tight recently – such as not allowing the money supply to grow anywhere near as fast as industrial output and leaning on the banks to control lending," said Ian Beattie, the manager of New Star's Asia Pacific Fund. "There is a lot of firepower in both monetary and fiscal policy."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/markets-feel-the-chill-from-china-962706.html


Solvency Attained, But at a Huge Price

The United States and other major economies have rescued the financial sector. The threat of imminent bank failures across the industrialized countries has all but ended at this juncture. That's good news for global investors, depositors, businesses and individuals alike following weeks of financial market turmoil that culminated into a global stock market crash last week.
But just how the government and the private sector will mesh is another story.
The United States and the United Kingdom are now the most aggressive lenders and owners of their domestic banking systems. And how they direct and manage these companies will dictate not only the fortunes of shareholders, but the future of global investing.
I've got a bad feeling about government in the private sector; so the sooner the government finishes its job stabilizing and recapitalizing the banking sector, the better.
For now, we're stuck with a financial services sector that largely falls directly under government control for the first time since the Great Depression.
Debt ratios will now skyrocket everywhere, as every country - including Germany - opens their purse strings in a huge way to accommodate bank liquidity and lending. We will have a different financial marketplace going forward with far more government regulation and control. I'm sure George Orwell, author of 1984, is spinning in his grave right now.
One thing is for sure: Global long-term interest rates - especially American bond yields - are going to rise significantly over the next three to five years. In addition to death and taxes, I'd bet higher long-term rates are almost a 100% guarantee in this life after the tidal wave of government guarantees and bailouts of the financial sector.
Funding costs will surge for the Treasury and I've got to believe the Chinese, Japanese and other big holders of Treasury paper will want higher interest rates to compensate for holding heavily indebted U.S. paper. Though the Fed can manipulate the short-end of the market, it can't control the long end. And that's where investors can look to make money as long-term interest rates eventually rise once deflation is finally quashed.
The systemic risk to the financial system is now behind us. That's the good news. The bad news is that consumers and companies along with the rest of the real economy will continue to feel strained by tepid economic conditions, still weak interbank lending and lousy corporate earnings for at least the next six months.
ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director
http://www.sovereignsociety.com/2008Archives2ndHalf/101608SolvencyAttainedButataHugePrice/tabid/4755/Default.aspx

Stock Market Crash Alert!
I have been surprised so far at how orderly the market has been, despite the heavy l losses. Just as it seemed that the market would roll over into “the big one,” it would rally back from the brink. Tonight I was reminded of an interview I had with Andrew Smithers in 2005 and the article I had written about it. I did a follow-up article again in 2006. I had identified the problem correctly, but was too early. The original link to an article that was published in Barron's has been turned off, but here is another link that quotes the original article verbatim.
On September 18th , I was very fearful of a meltdown during options expiration week. Again, we were pulled from the brink. This week, options expiration week, has no such outcome available. The rally was too small and too early. The SPX must be at 1200 by Thursday afternoon to mitigate the exposure to the options chain . I believe that the options sellers got a whiff of fear last week and, with the help of the PPT, staged a rally in which they could recapitalize their book by buying calls for pennies and selling them into the rally. Now that they are recapitalized, they can buy back the put contracts or Gamma Hedge by selling the SPX short to reduce their exposure to the massive overhang of put liabilities. Wall Street will win this one again. Investors will lose, big time.
I believe that this decline will be an unmitigated disaster. Remember, there are no supports for the SPX until 763. That is a decline of 27% from Tuesday's top. Considering that, as of the end of September, the total margin outstanding on the NYSE was still $290 billion (more than the $270 billion of margin outstanding in early 2000), there are more accelerants for this conflagration than at any other time in history. It is doubtful that even the 2002 low can hold.
In addition, the BKX has a Head & Shoulders pattern that calls for a 63% decline from Tuesday's close. What the chart is telling me is that the 3 rd wave, which will fulfill the H&S pattern, is yet to happen in the BKX. I had done a television program in July in which I suggested that the BKX would decline to single digits. Back then I wondered if I was crazy and whether my model was faulty. That outcome is now certain by the end of the year.
My prayers are that every one of you receiving this will do the right thing with this information.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6808.html

Eeyores news and view

A look at recent US recessions October 15, 2008 - 3:47pm
By The Associated Press
(AP) - Many Americans have forgotten what a deep recession feels like. In recent years, periods of economic expansion have lasted longer, and recent downturns have been relatively short and shallow. A look at the most recent recessions in the U.S.:
March 2001-November 2001
Duration: 8 months
Unemployment peak: 6.3 percent (June 2003)
Length of expansion preceding recession: 10 years
July 1990-March 1991
Duration: 8 months
Unemployment peak: 7.8 percent (June 1992)
Length of expansion preceding recession: 7 years, 6 months
July 1981-November 1982
Duration: 16 months
Unemployment peak: 10.8 percent (November 1982)
Length of expansion preceding recession: 1 year
January 1980-July 1980
Duration: 6 months
Unemployment peak: 7.8 percent (July 1980)
Length of expansion preceding recession: 4 years, 10 months
November 1973-March 1975
Duration: 16 months
Unemployment peak: 9 percent (May 1975)
Length of expansion preceding recession: 3 years
___
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

This Week's Contrarian Theme: The Positives Imaginary Worth, Empire of Debt: How Modern Finance Created Its Own Downfall October 15, 2008 Longtime contributor Zeus Yiamouyiannis has managed the difficult task of explaining the arcane world of credit default swaps (CDS) in the four-part series below. Here is his overview/introduction to the series.
This week's theme is "the positives" in our current situation, and the positive here is this: we can place the sources of our problems in the proper contexts.
Those bent on "manufacturing consent" must first de-contextualize reality so the targets of the propaganda are shaken free from any mooring to reality. Then the propaganda invokes fight-or-flight emotions (fear) or triggers the defense of some base values.
So rather than accept the propaganda "explanation" of the bailout and accept our elected official's bleating excuses for their consent, we can understand the reality operating beneath the sludge of the Mainstream Media's parroted "official version."
Imaginary Worth, Empire of Debt: How Modern Finance Created Its Own Downfall
How did we get here? The current global financial unraveling and meltdown has brought us face-to-face with a stark and uncomfortable truth: with all its reassuring numbers, our financial system is a human system, based on human frailties and desires, resting almost completely upon imaginary notions of worth.
Historical financial innovations have led us piece by piece into a phase shift from ownership of real assets to control of concocted wealth that no longer has a credible authoritative connection to productivity, life needs, or the day-to-day requirements of commerce.
From the bartering of material goods and services, to the convenient exchange of dollars no longer backed by anything but faith, to "creative" financial vehicles that leverage essentially symbolic wealth to an infinite degree, we have progressively departed from the foundation of what was once considered financial worth—the competent stakeholdership, ownership, and stewardship of real property involving labor, earnings, investment, risk, reward, and responsibility.
In other words, we’ve reached the "asymptote," the mathematical limit whereby even an infinite increase in concocted value produces no growth of worth on the real level. We are now caught in a circle of absurdity-- lending and borrowing derived from credit derived from collateral derived from inflated assets derived from future returns derived from “marked to model” value derived from unlimited growth and ability to pay. This last assumption is not only wrong but could never be right. The pyramid scheme has reached its limit. Finite goods cannot play out in infinite terms.
The problem comes from a reverse engineering of the world, amid global capital premises designed to extract, exploit, and concentrate wealth through the maximization of profits, profits, which have become increasingly dependent on maximum short-term competitive returns. This has accelerated the saturation of the global economic system. Much like a biological cancer single-mindedly programmed to take over the body, rogue financial instruments and players have mindlessly aimed for growth at all costs. Faced with the limits of growth to real wealth, the financial system has manufactured what has been called a "shadow banking system" that creates "value" out of whole cloth by simply assigning and exchanging it. This has culminated in a 70 trillion dollar market for credit default "swaps" (CDSs), an unregulated insurance, which is the subject of the following essays.
In the following essays I also point to several basic natural laws of systems, that were simply ignored or overridden in the greed-driven frenzy to manufacture growth:
Infinite growth is impossible in a finite system. One can be very creative about assigning worth and developing unlimited growth in assigned worth, but real worth remains constrained to its moorings—can it create quality of life, can it feed, shelter, and clothe, can it produce clean air and water, can it create lasting fulfillment? Even the magic of percentages and myths about "houses always going up in value" assume unlimited growth in environmental and financial systems with limits. Infinite growth premises are demonstrably false in finite systems. What they really seem communicate is, “Let the next generation deal with the consequences as long as I get my maximum returns now.” Infinite growth can happen in non-finite systems, and I indicate some of those possibly pro-social non-finite systems of exchange in my last essay.
There is no such real thing as "externalized" liability in a global system. As with the exploitation of natural resources, there is always a cost to any action, which seeks to extract value. Someone has to pay the price. The more interconnected a system, the more readily and strongly that price will turn up to affect all the players including the initial beneficiaries.
Finance systems need to be straightforward and transparent. This one would seem a no-brainer, but objectively speaking non-transparency has been a very large part of late capitalism, aiding concentration of wealth and enabling the unfair and sometimes illegal benefit of some players at the expense of others. This isn’t just about something obvious like insider trading.
Corporations have started shell companies to hide off-the-balance deficits. As explained in these essays, financial institutions marked their assets "to (their own) model" without fully revealing their assumptions. Rating agencies assessed junk as AAA, facilitating the sale of that junk to pension funds, who were only interested in secure investments. All this was hidden behind so-called "complexity" (a mantra repeated brainlessly in the media), a Rube Goldberg device of financial levers whose sole real purpose was to hide unscrupulous and unreasonable practices.
Debts are not assets. As I explain in the following articles, buying debt can appear to be a good investment on paper, but this rests on ability to pay. When debts are so constructed to create unreasonable re-payment (fast accelerating interest and principal payments rapidly outstripping the equity of collateral) they will fail.
Monopolies and concentrations of wealth ruin economies by binding up the flow of goods and services and freezing exchange. Healthy systems both natural and financial depend upon high diversity and exchange among distinct entities each offering something of real value. This is why a rain forest is considered a very rich system—many niches, many species all participate in the web of life.
This is why Henry Ford said he needed to make his wages high enough and his cars cheap enough for his own workers to buy them. This is why a large middle class is the bedrock of a functioning democracy. As I mentioned in the following essays, debt instruments had the effect of swallowing the normal citizen and worker’s paycheck paralyzing his or her ability to spend after the borrowing value of his or her assets (i.e. houses) were tapped out. This has been exacerbated in America by declining real wages, non-compensated increased productivity, and outsourced jobs. This has been further demonstrated by banks’ unwillingness to lend to each other. When the flow of money stops, financial systems seize up.
Without regulation and actual risk involving real consequences the financial system and its leaders will run wild. This one would again seem to be obvious, yet this law was ignored as well. Myths about the superiority of a market based on greed and acquisition to regulate itself don’t make any sense even on the face. Yet the world system, and in particular the American system driven by neo-conservative ideology, hailed deregulation as the triumph of "freedom."
Chief executive officers of large corporations could take huge risks for their companies and reap hundreds of millions of dollars of salaries, or completely run their companies into the ground as those risks came home to roost and get "only" tens of millions of dollars of golden parachutes. Reckless behavior is guaranteed if it is rewarded more than prudent, intelligent behavior in an economic system. From an acquisition standpoint, this is individually "rational" behavior, even though it is unhealthy and irrational from a system standpoint.
The question might be asked, "Why were all these very simple and obvious maxims ignored? What were people thinking?" I think much of it centers around the fact that people’s education and identity still has its roots in a long-past industrial age. People still tend to make their meaning and choices based upon largely myopic, compartmentalized, and stratified knowledge. Even well educated people rarely look deeply into the big picture and to whether their particular perceptions, assumptions, and knowledge reasonably fit with other parts of a system. Generally, if we can make some money, feed our families, and have some fun, we don’t really care what the system is doing. Now we are invited to engage bigger-picture thinking as a necessity in our day-to-day life.
I confess that I am not a financial wizard. I have a Ph.D. in philosophy of education (with an emphasis in cultural studies and psychology) with a natural sciences and math undergraduate background. This has allowed me to gain the tools to look at systems and the specialized skills to examine the various parts of systems. Natural sciences helped me apprehend existing systems, both natural and human. Psychology helped me to investigate motive. Philosophy helped me to question assumptions and test "common sense" thinking. Cultural studies helped me understand context. Math helped me check the actual numbers and formulas that financial systems were using. It is my small hope that these essays can help revive a liberal, integrated, imaginative, and critical examination and creation of the world around us.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

Mexican soldiers crossed clear line pointed rifles at border agent Jerry Seper (Contact)Tuesday, October 14, 2008 The nation's border czar has concluded that Mexican soldiers who held a U.S. Border Patrol agent at gunpoint in August did so after bypassing a barbed-wire fence and other clearly visible barriers to cross into the United States, contradicting claims by the State Department and the Mexican government that the soldiers were simply lost. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) Commissioner W. Ralph Basham, in a private letter to the National Border Patrol Council Local 2544 in Tucson, Ariz., described the Aug. 3 border incident as a "potential lethal encounter involving four Mexican armed military soldiers north of the international boundary." To see the letter, click here "There is a barbed-wire fence and new tactical infrastructure within sight that marks the borderline where the incident took place," Mr. Basham said. "Our uniformed agent, in a marked Border Patrol vehicle, identified himself in both English and Spanish." Mr. Basham, who oversees the Border Patrol, said that while most incursions into the United States by Mexican military or law enforcement authorities take place in remote areas where the international border is poorly marked, "that was not the case in this particular incident." He also described the tactics used against the agent, including the pointing of automatic rifles at him, as "unacceptable," adding that the incident had been "thoroughly documented by the Department of Homeland Security." He said the matter has since been sent to the State Department "with a request for diplomatic action." At the time of the incident, the State Department described the incursion as a misunderstanding, saying the Mexican soldiers did not know where they were and needed to make certain that the detained agent was who he said he was. It was the same general statement the department had made in dozens of other suspected incursions by members of the Mexican military. During a press briefing in Washington, State Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos said U.S. officials were aware of the incident and had brought it to the attention of the Mexican government, but that the encounter "stemmed from a momentary misunderstanding as to the exact location of the Mexican-U.S. border." Border Patrol spokesman Lloyd Easterling at the time also noted that the incident, which took place on the Tohono O'odham Indian Reservation, occurred in an area where there were "no markers, at least not easily found." He said, "There's no line painted in the sand or anything like that." Ricardo Alday, a spokesman at the Mexican Embassy in Washington, also said at the time that Mexico and the U.S. were engaged in "an all-out struggle to deter criminal organizations from operating on both sides of our common border." "Law enforcement operations have led, from time to time, to innocent incursions by both U.S. and Mexican law enforcement personnel and military units into the territory of both nations, and in particular along non-demarcated areas of our border," he said. The unidentified Border Patrol agent was detained at gunpoint for several minutes by members of the Mexican military who crossed the border into Arizona about 85 miles southwest of Tucson. The soldiers returned to Mexico without incident when backup agents responded to assist. It was not clear what the soldiers were doing in the United States, but U.S. law enforcement authorities have long said that current and former Mexican military personnel have been hired to protect drug and migrant smugglers. Local 2544 President Edward "Bud" Tuffly II said the four Mexican military soldiers crossed into the United States after passing a barbed-wire fence and vehicle barriers that Homeland Security had erected in the area. He also said the agent was in full uniform and was driving a fully marked Border Patrol vehicle, complete with red and blue lights, large green stripes down the side and the large words "Border Patrol" on the sides and the rear of the vehicle. Basham"A reasonable person would conclude that the soldiers knew exactly at whom they were pointing their rifles," Mr. Tuffly said. "Had the agent panicked and fired a shot or attempted to flee in his vehicle, there is little doubt the Mexican soldiers would have opened fire." Mr. Tuffly, a veteran Border Patrol agent, called the State Department's description of the incident "unfortunate," noting that during past incursions, the Mexican government denied it had soldiers in the area or blamed impostors, even when military Humvees were involved. "Time after time they have gotten away with these incursions and time after time our government has not taken a forceful stand against them," he said. Mr. Basham's letter was sent Sept. 25 to Mr. Tuffly in response to an Aug. 23 letter by the Local 2544 president to President Bush asking that he put an end to Mexican military incursions that have put Border Patrol agents at risk of being injured or killed. "It is disgraceful that Border Patrol agents are put in harm's way and our government doesn't do everything reasonably within its power to protect us from marauding Mexican soldiers and others," Mr. Tuffly wrote. "Without a forceful response to these illegal incursions, an agent will eventually be seriously wounded or killed. It is only a matter of time." In his letter, Mr. Basham said "dialogue with the government of Mexico" had been initiated "to prevent a recurrence of this type of incident." He said CBP was committed to "preventing incursions into the United States by any entity, whether unintentional or by those who enter with criminal intent." "Securing our borders is a top priority and our Border Patrol agents are precious resources that are essential in gaining greater levels of operational control along our border with Mexico," Mr. Basham said, vowing to Mr. Tuffly to "make it a priority to speak again with the leadership at the Department of State and the Mexican government on this issue." The NBPC, staffed by current and retired Border Patrol agents, represents all of the agency's 14,000 nonsupervisory agents and support staff. Mr. Tuffly's local is the union's largest, with about 3,000 members. http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/oct/14/mexican-soldiers-crossed-clear-line/

I have said for years that a devote moderate Muslim, would make a great neighbor. I agree with them here, public is no place for intercourse between consenting or non consenting adults or kids period.
Sex-on-beach trial exposes Dubai's cultural divide October 15, 2008 - 2:39pm
Emirates women arrive at the Fashion Week venue in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Oct. 6, 2008. The clash of cultures between Dubai's Emiratis and the foreigners who flock here to work and play is coming to a head in the trial of two Britains accused of having intercourse in public after meeting hours earlier at an all-you-can-drink champagne brunch. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)
By BARBARA SURK Associated Press Writer
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) - The British pair on trial for sex on the beach deny going all the way, but even a snuggle in the sand is too much in this Persian Gulf city. Although Dubai sells itself as a party hot spot, its Arab population hews to conservative Muslim values.
The clash of cultures between residents and the foreigners who flock here to work and play is coming to a head in the trial of Michelle Palmer and Vince Acors, Britons accused of having intercourse in public after meeting hours earlier at an all-you-can-drink champagne brunch.
The pair, both in their 30s, face up to two years in prison if convicted of engaging in sex outside marriage, public indecency and drunkenness.
A judge is expected to issue a verdict in the case Thursday _ a decision that risks alienating tourists or upsetting Emiratis angry at the government's willingness to relax moral standards in the name of economic growth.
"These are testing times for Dubai, a sunshine state where everything always goes right," said Christopher Davidson, a Dubai specialist at Britain's Durham University.
"They cannot let badly behaved Brits off scot-free," he said. "But if they throw the book at them, what would that do to Dubai's tourism industry?"
Dubai has been called the Las Vegas of the Middle East, with its carefully cultivated image as an oasis of liberal entertainment set amid an expanse of conservative countries like Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis ban alcohol and require even foreign women to wear enveloping black robes in public. In contrast, alcohol flows freely in Dubai's hotels and women can wear bikinis on city beaches.
But what most foreigners don't know _ and what the government is not advertising _ is that beneath the liberal facade is a legal culture based on Islamic laws and tribal rules that looks a lot more like Riyadh than Las Vegas.
While the laws are not always enforced, it is illegal for couples in Dubai to hold hands, hug or kiss in public _ much less have sex on the beach.
"On affection in public, the law is clear and very strict," said Khalifa al-Shaali, dean of the law faculty at the University of Ajman, in Dubai's neighboring emirate. "Sex in public is an illegal act."
Palmer and Acors were arrested in July after an unidentified resident reported them to the police for indecent behavior. After a night in jail, they were freed but banned from leaving the country until a court determined their fate.
Both admitted they were drunk but denied having sex.
"They are innocent, and there's evidence to prove it," their lawyer, Hassan Matter, told The Associated Press. "If they wanted to have sex, they could have gone to a hotel or her apartment, not the beach."
Palmer, who has worked in Dubai's publishing industry for several years, was fired from her job after her arrest. She has received more media attention than Acors, who on vacation when he met her.
Dubai's indigenous population has long demanded that the government act to preserve their religious values and small-town traditions. Emiratis account for only 15 percent to 20 percent of a population dominated by Asian migrant workers, Western ex-pats and tourists.
"They (Emiratis) are not anti anybody, but the situation is pushing people to become kind of angry," said Ebtisam al-Kitbi, a Dubai native who teaches political science at Emirates University in Al Ain.
Many natives fear the city's culture is increasingly tipping in favor of foreigners, al-Kitbi said.
Some Emiratis have turned to radio call-in programs and Internet blogs to vent about how they no longer feel at home in their own country.
In response, the government has stepped up its efforts. A few days after Palmer and Acors were arrested, police detained dozens of people, mostly tourists, for topless sunbathing, nudity and other acts deemed indecent. It also has tightened immigration rules, visa policies and work permits.
But Dubai's leaders also say they are going ahead with plans for growth _ plans that will keep the city on the cultural front line.
"They talk about a clash of civilizations. You can find it here," said al-Kitbi.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=105&sid=1497732

For you job seekers and those looking for work, at least it is not me yet.
Indeed.com (Oct. 15) Indeed.com not only searches for work, it tracks the pay and trends for your job. Its forums offer advice -- and possibly a preview of what attitudes may be encountered there. Postings by one employer referred to applicants as "coneheads." D.C. workers will find encouragement at the "Job Postings per Capita" page. Of the 50 biggest U.S. cities, the National Capital Metro area ranks No. 2 in job postings per 1,000 residents. Only San Jose, Calif. has more. And before you plan a move to Rochester, N.Y., check the rankings.

Good site for old fashisioned recipies, American Indian Recipes.
http://www.yvwiiusdinvnohii.net/NAIFood/NAIrecipes.htm
To make Fry Bread, you will need the following:
2 cups unsifted flour1/2 cup dry milk solids2 teaspoons double-acting baking powder1/2 teaspoon salt2 tablespoons lard, cut into 1/2-inch bits, plus 1 pound lard for deep frying 1/2 cup ice water.
Combine the flour, dry milk solids, baking powder and salt, and sift them into a deep bowl. Add the 2 tablespoons of lard bits and, with your fingertips, rub the flour and fat together until the mixture resembles flakes of coarse meal. Pour in the water and toss the ingredients together until the dough can be gathered into a ball. Drape the bowl with a kitchen towel and let the dough rest at room temperature for about 2 hours.
After the resting period, cut the dough into three equal pieces. Then, on a lightly floured surface, roll each piece into a rough circle about 8 inches in diameter and 1/4 inch thick. With a small sharp knife, cut two 4- to 5-inch-long parallel slits completely through the dough down the center of each round, spacing the slits about 1 inch apart.
In a heavy 10-inch skillet, melt the remaining pound of lard over moderate heat until it is very hot but not smoking. The melted fat should be about 1 inch deep; add more lard if necessary. Fry the breads one at a time for about 2 minutes on each side, turning them once with tongs or a slotted spatula. The bread will puff slightly and become crisp and brown. Drain the Navajo fry bread on paper towels and serve warm.
Makes three 8-inch round breads.
Navajo Taco
To make tacos, you will need the following:
6 Rounds of fry bread1 T Lard1 Head of lettuce3 Tomatoes1 Onion1 1/2 lb Ground lamb1/2 lb Cheddar cheeseGreen chilies
Grate cheese. Shred lettuce; chop tomatoes and chilies. Brown lamb in lard. Divide onto 6 fry bread rounds. Top with cheese, lettuce, tomatoes, chilies and onions. Serve with salsa!

Eeyores news with a view

Too many times in two weeks,
Dow plunges 733 on new disheartening economic data October 15, 2008 - 7:39pm
By JEANNINE AVERSA AP Economics Writer
(AP) - The economy lurched deeper into the doldrums Wednesday and took the stock market down with it, sending the Dow Jones industrials to a staggering 733-point loss and erasing any hopes that the convulsions that have shaken Wall Street for a month were over.
The daylong sell-off came as retailers reported the biggest drop in sales in three years and as a Federal Reserve snapshot showed Americans are spending less and manufacturing is slowing around the country.
Piling up losses in a rough final hour of trading, the Dow ended the day down nearly 8 percent _ its steepest drop since one week after Black Monday in 1987. The Dow has wiped out all but about 127 points of its record-shattering 936-point gain on Monday of this week.
Earlier this week, after governments around the world announced plans to use trillions of dollars to prop up banks, including a U.S. plan to buy about $250 billion in bank stocks, the market had appeared to be turning around _ or at least calming down.
Instead, relentless selling gave the Dow its 20th triple-digit swing in the past 23 trading sessions, an unprecedented run of volatility. The Dow has finished higher on only one day this month. The loss of 733 points is the second-worst ever for the average, topped only by a 778-point decline Sept. 29.
The plunge in stocks put the nation's economic anxiety front-and-center as the two major presidential candidates, Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain, prepared for their final debate Wednesday night in Hempstead, N.Y.
In the meantime, the man they each hope to succeed met with his Cabinet. President Bush predicted "in the long run that this economy will come back."
(the rest of the article is here) http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1450051

Again it happening, America is the leader, but a not very good one.
World stocks tumble as Tokyo markets plunge 11 pct October 16, 2008 - 6:34am
Pedestrians watch an electric market board in Tokyo, Thursday, Oct. 16, 2008. Japan's key stock index plunged more than 10 percent in early trade Thursday, hit by another dive on Wall Street and growing recession fears. (AP Photo/Katsumi Kasahara)
By JEREMIAH MARQUEZ AP Business Writer
HONG KONG (AP) - World stocks tumbled Thursday, with Tokyo's market plunging more than 11 percent, after another dive on Wall Street as worse-than-expected data about the U.S. economy heightened fears of a global recession.
Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso blamed the renewed drop in markets, which had rebounded earlier this week, on investor concerns that the U.S. government's $700 billion bank bailout was insufficient.
"Since it was insufficient, the market is again falling sharply," Aso told lawmakers. He did not elaborate.
Tokyo's Nikkei 225 stock average slid 1,089.02 points, or 11.41 percent, to 8,458.45, its biggest drop since the 1987 stock market crash.
In South Korea, the main index dropped 9.25 percent after Standard & Poor's said it may downgrade the credit ratings of some of the country's leading banks. The ratings agency warned the credit crisis could make it difficult for the companies to refinance maturing debt.
Hong Kong's key index trimmed losses, closing down 4.8 percent after falling more than 8 percent earlier.
Benchmarks in Britain, Germany and France opened about 3 percent lower. Russia's RTS also fell back.
Investors were unnerved by U.S. data showing the country's retail sales fell 1.2 percent in September, almost double the 0.7 percent decline analysts expected _ clear evidence that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was weakening.
That was followed by more bearish data from the U.S. Federal Reserve that showed the economy continued to slow in the early fall as financial and credit market problems took a turn for the worse.
All told, the readings provided some of the most ominous signs to date that the world's largest economy _ a critical export market for Asia _ was sliding into recession, if not already in one.
"Sentiment is deteriorating very fast. People are losing what little confidence they have on a day-by-day basis," said Jacky Choi, a Hong Kong-based fund manager at Value Partners Ltd., which manages about $5 billion in Asia. "Everyone is very worried about the economy in the U.S and around the world.
In New York on Wednesday, the Dow Jones industrial average ended down 733.08, or 7.87 percent, at 8,577.91 _ its second-biggest point loss ever.
U.S. stock futures were higher, suggesting Wall Street might rebound Thursday. Dow futures were up about 1 percent at 8,600. (The rest of the story can be found at:)
http://wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=630962

Great Depression holds lessons for surviving tough economy

(CNN) -- Memories of salvaging and stealing to avoid going hungry are part of the legacy of the Great Depression. Some iReporters say they can't help but look at the current economy and feel the past holds lessons for the present.

Donna LeBlanc of Waxia, Louisiana, says she carries no credit to this day as a result of the frugality and self-reliance instilled in her by her family. Her husband keeps the couple's credit card and maintains a zero balance.
The Great Depression meant scary times for many households as a period of economic downturn spread throughout the world. Historians trace its start to the "Black Tuesday" stock crash on October 29, 1929, and argue that the resulting global desperation set the stage for World War II.
LeBlanc said her grandparents were fortunate that they didn't have investments and could grow -- or catch -- their own food during the Depression years.
Her grandfather Lester was a "Cajun cowboy" often seen wearing a cowboy hat, and her grandmother Ida was a resourceful woman who spent much of the 1930s working as a store clerk. LeBlanc, always told never to keep credit card debt, heard frightful stories from Ida.
"She remembered vividly the barrels of flour, the bolts of cloth and the hunger in the faces of people as they begged for store credit," LeBlanc said. "The store must have been at least marginally successful, because my grandmother was able to purchase, a piece at a time, a complete six-person setting of Gorham Chantilly silverware for her trousseau, linens and even a Lane cedar chest to house her treasures."
The couple would catch wild hogs, feed them corn for a year and eat them once the wild taste was out of the scavenging animals. They also took advantage of available squirrel meat, a common food in the South at that time.
"It was a uniquely disgusting thing ... to see my grandfather take a stewed, skinned squirrel's head, smack the skull's dome with a heavy silver tablespoon, and dine on the brains," LeBlanc said.
Years after the Depression, LeBlanc's grandparents were well off once again. Ida became a packrat and couldn't help saving what she could. When the family opened up the old cedar chest after she died, they found a decades-old treasure trove of sewing materials and other keepsakes. The Great Depression turned many Americans into packrats who couldn't bear to part with anything of potential value. They couldn't always afford to buy what they needed.

Pam van Hylckama Vlieg of Williamsburg, Virginia, says her great grandfather, Glen Surber, resorted to stealing food at times because he had hit rock-bottom.
Surber left the family behind in Saltville, Virginia, so he could head out to West Virginia's coal mines. After he got laid off, he found himself trying to steal chickens from a nearby farmer to feed his hungry family. He hid behind a tree to wait for nightfall, but his plan was stymied when he found another person lurking in the shadows.
"Both men took off running and then they realized they each thought the other was the farmer, but they were both there to steal a chicken," van Hylckama Vlieg said. "Needless to say, that was another night of water bread."
Digging into her memories, van Hylckama Vlieg says her great grandfather eventually found a work program after the New Deal and was able to rebuild his life.
She is confident we haven't hit another Depression and that we've learned enough lessons from the past to avoid letting things get as bad as they were before.
"Poppy always said the world turns and everything that has happened would happen again. I am sure if he were still with us today he would be warning us to start a garden and buy some chickens."
Saving is a habitual behavior for those who have lived through the Great Depression, says Anjanette Sanchez of Globe, Arizona. Her grandmother, Vera Vasquez, had a difficult time with the Great Depression and seemed to be scarred by it long after.
"She spoke of the time with great disgust in her voice as if it was the most awful time of her life," Sanchez said. "She mostly spoke of being hungry and having to wear old boots that didn't fit."
Vasquez continued to save her things and always kept her freezer packed with food -- like frozen cactus to eat with her scrambled eggs -- because she'd lived through harsh times. There was never room for ice cubes.
"I guess to her, food was more valuable than ice," Sanchez said. "Her motto at the table was to eat as much as you want, but not to waste the food. Take all you want, but eat all you take."
Sanchez now passes on the same ideas to her children and reminds them not to be wasteful.

Kimberly Kolaski of Richmond, Virginia, says her family's claim to fame is her great granduncle Paul Satko's remarkable attempt to travel to Alaska in a wooden ark to find land and a better life. He spent a couple of weeks making the treacherous trip on board the boat, termed the Ark of Juneau.
"He was on a mission and he was going to do it no matter what," Kolaski says. She's heard numerous stories about the hardships Satko endured, including being stopped while driving his unusual payload to Seattle, Washington, where the ark was to be launched.
The story is inspirational for the family and provides a sobering lesson about economic security for Kolaski. "I've learned to put my money away and don't touch it," she says.

Sheila Elrod of Atlanta, Georgia, says many secrets to success have been passed along through the years in her family.
"My grandfather, born in 1898, was an established small businessman by 1929, owning and managing a gas station and grill patronized by the mill workers. As his children and grandchildren grew into adulthood, he reminded us of some guiding principles that he learned during the depression."
Elrod says her grandmother worked inside the nearby mill because people of the time believed that one must "work hard, regardless of your status."
"Oddly enough, she and her sisters were ladies that were taught all the graces of being ladies," Elrod said. "However, here's an example that even ladies didn't shy away from hard work during that time.
Elrod said her grandfather had to be careful to whom he gave credit and learned many smart business secrets along the way. He passed them along to Elrod:
Always do the right thing.
Take care of the customer.
Pay attention to details.
Know the people with whom you are doing business.
NEVER borrow money without a clear plan for how you will pay it back.

Richard Holland of Phoenix, Arizona, says his grandfather packed up a Ford Model T in search of a better life. The family ended up taking shelter in a barn while Orville Holland continued onward to find work.
"In those days, telephones were few and far between across the Great Plains, and months elapsed with no word or money from my grandfather. The coming winter was a serious concern as they considered the threat of living in the unheated barn." "As fall approached, the story continues that my grandfather returned in a borrowed car. He had walked, hitchhiked and ridden the rails until he secured a job, saving every penny to finally rent a place for his family."
Gayla Uslu of Conyers, Georgia, says she never understood why her grandmother was so big on saving plastic bowls and other packaging until now.
"She grew up in the depression and also lived in a rural area, far from the soup and bread lines in the urban areas. It wasn't just a matter of getting food, it has to be stored and kept long-term as well."
Uslu finds much to learn from her grandmother and catches herself doing the same things that mystified her before.
"Today, I find myself really thinking twice before I throw uneaten food away. Leftovers aren't such a bad idea anymore, and I find myself holding on to a few of those plastic containers myself."

Iceland shares plunge 76% as trading resumes
Angela Jameson
Shares on the Reykjavik stock exchange plunged by 76 per cent when trading resumed after three days of closure as Iceland’s economy continued to teeter on the brink of collapse.
Shares later recovered to leave the OMX Iceland 15 index down 47 per cent in morning trade.
Market officials said the astounding figure was misleading since the country’s three largest banks — Kaupthing, Landsbanki, Glitnir — which had accounted for three quarters of the exchange’s value, had been removed from the index after they were nationalised last week.
Other financial stocks would remain on the index but would not resume trading until Iceland’s Financial Services Authority gave the green light, the bourse said.
Not counting financial shares, the main index had shed 5 per cent in early afternoon trading.
Trading in three other financial stocks — Straumur-Burdaras, Reykjavik Savings Bank (Spron) and Exista — remain suspended.
The exchange had been suspended since Thursday with the last official trade coming on Wednesday.
A delegation of Icelandic officials began talks in Moscow today over a €4 billion loan to help the country's financial sector. The head of the Icelandic delegation said that there had been no discussion so far on a Russian loan amount to Iceland but the group had received an "excellent reception."
However, the party does not included any ministers or the Icelandic central bank's chief, suggesting that negotiations have some way to go before politicians become involved.
Iceland needs Russia's money to help rebuild its battered economy after the country of 300,000 people became the most potent symbol of the damage wrought by the global credit crisis.
The UK has also offered to lend up to £100 million to Landsbanki, one of three banks taken over by the Icelandic Government, to help facilitate prompt compensation for British savers whose money has been trapped in Icesave's administration.
Iceland has turned to oil-rich Russia for help, where a €4 billion loan would be worth around one per cent of Russia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves.
Moscow has unveiled a rescue package for the Russian market worth more than $210 billion, but analysts say capital flight may not stop until global financial markets stabilise.
Helping Iceland could help to ensure that happens, although Russia’s move is widely regarded as politically motivated.
Last week, Iceland said the loan could be for between three and four years at an interest rate of between 30 and 50 basis points above Libor.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/banking_and_finance/article4940623.ece

Stocks plunge anew as retail sales show steep drop October 10, 2008 - 7:17pm
By TIM PARADIS AP Business Writer
NEW YORK (AP) - Investors agonizing over a faltering economy sent the stock market plunging all over again Wednesday after two disheartening reports convinced Wall Street that a recession, if not already here, is inevitable. The Dow Jones industrials dropped as much as 572 points, more than half their huge 936-point advance from Monday, and all the major indexes fell at least 5 percent.
The government's report that retail sales plunged in September by 1.2 percent _ almost double the 0.7 percent drop analysts expected _ made it clear that consumers are reluctant to spend amid a shaky economy and a punishing stock market.
The Commerce Department report was sobering because consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. The reading came as Wall Street was refocusing its attention on the faltering economy following stepped up government efforts to revive the stagnant credit markets.
The release of the Beige Book, the assessment of business conditions from the Federal Reserve, added to investors' angst. The report found that the economy continued to slow in the early fall as financial and credit problems took a turn for the worse. The central bank's report supported the market's belief that difficulties in obtaining loans have choked growth in wide swaths of the economy.
"Even though the banking sector may be returning to normal, the economy still isn't. The economy continues to face a host of other problems," said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at ChannelCapitalResearch.com. "We're in for a tough ride."
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke offered a similar opinion, warning in a speech Wednesday that patching up the credit markets won't provide an instantaneous jolt to the economy.
"Stabilization of the financial markets is a critical first step, but even if they stabilize as we hope they will, broader economic recovery will not happen right away," he told the Economic Club of New York.
Analysts have warned that the market will see continued volatility as it tries to recover from the devastating losses of the last month, including the nearly 2,400-point plunge in the Dow over eight sessions. Such turbulence is typical after a huge decline, but the market's anxiety about the economy is also expected to cause gyrations in the weeks and months ahead.
Investors apparently have come to believe that Monday's big rebound, a response to the government's plan to invest $250 billion in banks to get the lending business restarted, was overdone given the problems elsewhere in the economy.
"It really doesn't come as a shock after Monday's gains were I think a little bit excessive," said Charles Norton, principal and portfolio manager at GNICapital, referring to the market's pullback.
He contends that the government has taken so many steps that investors must now wait for some of the actions to help steady the economy.
"It seems like all the tools in the tool chest have mostly been used now and now it's back to reality," he said. "We're still faced with the fact that the economy is slowing and earnings aren't very good."
Doubts about the economy were already surfacing in Tuesday's session, when investors halted an early rally and began collecting profits from stocks' big Monday advance. Wednesday's data confirmed the market's fears that the economy is likely to remain weak for some time, and that corporate profits are likely to suffer.
Mark Coffelt, portfolio manager at Empiric Funds, said moves by European and U.S. government officials to begin investing directly in banks are easing worries about credit. But the steep pullback in stocks that began last month after the credit markets lurched to a near standstill has now created worries that consumers will spend less after seeing the value of their retirement accounts and other investments drop.
"Markets abhor uncertainty and so we got a lot of that resolved this weekend and we got the reward Monday but now people are saying 'OK, now what is the economy going to do?'"
"We're definitely going to get a slowdown from the terror of going through that," Coffelt said.
In late afternoon trading, the Dow fell 544.15, or 5.84 percent, to 8,766.84 after falling more than 572.67 shortly after the release of the Beige Book.
Broader stock indicators also skidded. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 69.99, or 7.01 percent, to 928.02, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 110.25, or 6.20 percent, to 1,668.76.
With Wednesday's drop likely to hold, the Dow will, after a one-day break, resume a string of triple-digit losses or gains. On Tuesday, after swinging erratically throughout the session, the blue-chip index closed the day down a moderate 76 points.
The stock market was trying to recover from last week's terrible run, which erased about $2.4 trillion in shareholder wealth and brought the Dow to its lowest level since April 2003. The tumble occurred amid a seize-up in lending stemming from a lack of trust among institutions in response to the bankruptcy of investment bank Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the failure of Washington Mutual Inc., which had been the nation's largest thrift.
The credit markets have been showing tentative signs of recovery, though they remain strained, and demand for safe assets remains high. The three-month Treasury bill on Wednesday was yielding 0.33 percent, up from 0.21 percent on Tuesday. Overall yields remain low, showing that demand is so high that investors are willing to earn meager returns as long as their principal is preserved.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 4.01 percent from 4.03 percent late Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the Labor Department said the producer price index, which measures inflation pressures before they reach the consumer, fell 0.4 percent in September, driven by lower energy costs. That decline matched analysts' expectations.
In corporate news, Intel Corp., topped analysts' estimates and posted a third-quarter profit increase of 12 percent. Shares of the world's largest maker of PC microprocessors fell 44 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $15.49.
JPMorgan's results topped forecasts but the problems seen in all types of loans, not just home equity debt but also prime mortgages and credit cards, is worrisome for the banking industry. The stock fell 63 cents to $40.08.
Wells Fargo rose $1.17, or 3.5 percent, to $34.69 after its report.
Declining issues outnumbered advancers by about 7 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.1 billion shares.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 35.69, or 6.43 percent, to 518.96.
In Asian trading, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost nearly 5 percent after rising more than 13 percent the previous two days. Markets in Australia, South Korea, China, India and Singapore also sank. Japan's Nikkei 225 index, however, ended up 1.1 percent after soaring 14 percent in the previous session.
In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 7.08 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 6.49 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 6.82 percent.
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On the Net:
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com/
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com/

Unemployment rises at fastest rate in 17 years
Grainne Gilmore

UK unemployment has surged by a 17-year high of 164,000 to 1.79 million and could rise even further to two million by the end of the year.
The rise in unemployment during the three months to August marks the biggest increase since 1991 while the number of people claiming jobless benefits rose by 31,800 over the 12 weeks to September.
David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of England's rate-setting committee has predicted the ILO measure of unemployment could hit two million by the end of the year.
The total number of people in employment slumped by 122,000 in the three weeks to August, the largest drop since early 1993. (the rest of the story is at)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article4946956.ece

Jobless shock sends London shares diving
Dearbail Jordan
London shares ended a two-day rally this morning as fears of a recession intensified and UK unemployment jumped at the fastest rate in 17 years.
The FTSE 100 index of leading blue chip companies lost 137.91 points at 4,256.3 following the surprise rise in jobless numbers, extending earlier losses when Rio Tinto, the mining giant, announced it would delay plans to sell $10 billion in assets due to "challenging financial markets"
In the three months to August, unemployment grew by 164,000 to 1.79 million – the fastest rise since 1991 – while the number of people claiming jobless benefit rose by 31,800 in the three months to September.
Across other markets, focus shifted from the global banking bailout that has been consuming investors to the wider economy and fears that a recession will soon envelop leading industrialised nations. (the rest of the story is at)
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/markets/article4947445.ece


Researchers expect hackers to prey on cell phones October 15, 2008 - 12:25am
By JORDAN ROBERTSON AP Technology Writer
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) - Some of the most vicious Internet predators are hackers who infect thousands of PCs with special viruses and lash the machines together into "botnets" to pump out spam or attack other computers.
Now security researchers say cell phones, and not just PCs, are the next likely conscripts into the automated armies.
The mobile phone as zombie computer is one possibility envisioned by security researchers from Georgia Tech in a new report coming out Wednesday.
The report identifies the growing power of cell phones to open a new avenue of attack for hackers. Of particular concern is that as cell phones get more computing power and better Internet connections, hackers can capitalize on vulnerabilities in mobile-phone operating systems or Web applications.
Botnets, or networks of infected or robot PCs, are the weapons of choice when it comes to spam and so-called "denial of service attacks," in which computer servers are overwhelmed with Internet traffic to shut them down. For example, botnets were used against Estonia's government and financial Web sites in a devastating wave of attacks last year.
Botnets are so troubling because they have massive computing power and a seemingly endless supply of newly infected PCs to replace old ones that are wiped clean or taken offline. Millions of PC have fallen victim. The owners typically never know.
The Georgia Tech researchers say that if cell phones become absorbed in botnets, new types of moneymaking scams could be born. For example, infected phones could be programmed to call pay-per-minute 1-900 numbers or to buy ringtones from companies set up by the criminals.
"The question is, can they do it effectively _ make a lot of money without much risk?" said botnet expert Joe Stewart, director of malware research with SecureWorks Inc. "And if they can, then they will do it."
The Georgia Tech researchers say a big appeal of cell phones for hackers is that the devices are generally always on, they're sending and receiving more data, and they typically have poor security. Antivirus software would suck up massive amounts of battery life, which is a killer on a mobile device.
"This is the perfect platform (for hackers)," said Patrick Traynor, an assistant professor of computer science at Georgia Tech and a contributor to its Emerging Cyber Threats Report.
One big hurdle hackers will face is learning how the cellular networks work and adapting their attacks. Unlike the wide-open world of Internet providers, cell phone operators have tighter control over their networks, which means they could shut down the lines of communication between infected phones much easier.
Traynor noted that researchers have very little hard evidence that hackers are already targeting cell phones. But successfully attacking cell phones requires that people do a lot of Internet browsing and downloading programs onto their phones, and that is just starting to happen now.
"There are some challenges for the adversaries, but we've seen them overcome the challenges in their way before," Traynor said.
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On the Net:
http://www.gtiscsecuritysummit.com/

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