Eeyores News and View

Prepping 101Posted by: Kurt
I’m talking to the intelligent ones amongst you: you know who you are. You’
re the ones who, when you do your weekly shopping, you pick up a few extra
cans (or cases) of stuff that you and your family regularly eat. Chili,
beans, tuna, Mac & Cheese, Cheese Whiz, etc.
Then there are those of you who have the famous “but Safeway is only down
the street so I can rush down there before there’s a disaster” mentality.
Good luck and God help you, ‘cause no one else will.
There are four levels of “survival food” preparation and use:

Level 1: Shop using your local food ads for the food you normally eat.
It’s simply a point of logic (and economics) to “stock up” on foodstuffs
that you eat anyway. Here in North Idaho, every Wednesday and Sunday the
food ads come out. Just by watching these ads, I buy bread at $ .10 to $ .25
a loaf, milk at $1.65 a gallon, beef from $ .99 per pound, canned chili
around $ .15 a can, various canned fruit from $ .25 to $ .50 a can, and on
and on. Being the cheap guy I am, I simply buy a case of whatever’s on sale
when ever I see a good deal.
My wife has this weird idea that 100 jars of peanut butter is “too much”. Go
figure.
So that’s the easy part of “survival food”. Just follow your local food ads
and do a bit of stocking up. You can easily allocate 5% of your income to
these “extra” purchases. Use common sense when stocking up and don’t waste
your money on things like soft drinks and potato ships. Canned and solidly
packaged items that can be shelf-stable for at least a few years should be
your target.

WARNING! NEVER BUY DENTED CANS!
The interior of cans is coated with a food-grade shellac, which prevents
biological activity and growth. If that coating is damaged (as in a dented
can) the food in the can will immediately start to react with the tin and
start the formation of bacteria. Depending on the type of canned food, this
could lead to YOUR DEATH!
Example: as we all know, the staple diet of a teenaged boy is Mac & Cheese.
Super One Food has them on sale (periodically) at 5 for a dollar. Where else
can you feed someone for under a quarter? We bought two cases (48 boxes) and
to protect them from nibbly critters, we took each box and put it into a
zip-lock baggie, then put all the baggied-boxes into large plastic storage
tubs with lids.
Tuna? Three cans for $1.00 here on sale. Perfect source of protein so get at
least 24 cans per person in your household, and use that as a “rule of
thumb” for your survival storage purchases.

Level 2: Buy food stuffs that can be used to “stretch” you normal stored
foods.
Ok. So now you’ve got hundreds of cans of chili, beans, rice, Mac & Cheese,
tuna, etc, and you figure that you might have a one year supply of food for
the family (if all you eat is this canned and packaged stock). So now we
plan on how to stretch this supply.
Dehydrated foods are those foods that have had about 99% of moisture removed
from them. Standard packing procedure is to then place an amount of food
(green beans, peas, corn, soup mix, etc) in a #10 can (about a 1 gallon
size), add an oxygen absorber pack, flush with nitrogen (to remove any last
traces of oxygen) then vacuum seal in the can. Now you have a can of
something-or-other that will have a shelf life (depending on your storage
temperature) of up to 20 years. Dehydrated food generally weigh 50% to 75%
less then the original version of that food.
An example would be dehydrated BEEF TVP (Textured Vegetable Protein -
another name for tasteless soy bean meal. Various flavorings are added to
make it more palatable like beef, chicken, ham, taco and bacon flavor). You
would rehydrate 1 cup of beef tvp and fry that up like normal hamburger.
Cook up 1 cup of rice (which makes 2 cups of cooked rice.) Toss together
with any of the seasonings you’ve stocked up on (which is as important as
food - seasonings can make the most vile food taste like sirloin steak!),
and you have enough for 4 to 5 meals. By adding dehydrated food to your
stocked “normal” food stuff, you now have two to four times the amount of
food available.

The pros about using and storing dehydrated foods are:
1) Longer storage capability than “normal” canned food stuffs (10 to 20
years as opposed to 1 or 2 years).
2) Dehydrated foods weigh 50% to 75% less then their original weight.
3) As dehydrated foods are used as “ingredients” (not complete meals) you
can be more creative in preparation. Example: (and obviously after it’s been
properly rehydrated) Beef TVP can be made into a paddy like regular
hamburger, fried with seasonings and used in a burrito, cooked in spaghetti
sauce - use it anywhere you’d normally use hamburger. The same with the
other flavor TVP’s. In fact, we use the Bacon TVP on salads, potatoes and
eggs. You probably do to, except you might know it as “Bacon Bits”!

The cons about using dehydrated foods:

1) You must have a source of clean water to rehydrate the food.
2) All you’re gaining is longer term storage capability - it still takes
time to cook.
3) Depending on where you buy, they could be more expensive then their fresh
counterparts.
4) As the concept here is “storage”, you’ll need lots of space to stack
these cans

Canned dehydrated food is in use daily by most restaurants for soups, sauces
and seasoning. Dehydrated foods are hundreds of times more “shelf stable”
then their fresh counterparts, and still have up to 95% of the same
nutrition still intact.
NOTE: Though dehydrated food will last years in it’s original, sealed can,
once it’s opened, you’ll need to use it up within a few months (if it’s left
in it’s covered can on a shelf) or you could refrigerate the can and it’ll
be safe for many months.

Level 3: Buy long term storage, easily prepared, food stocks (complete meal
style)
For long term storage (I mean 20 to 50 years), the only company to use will
be Mountain House. The company is owned and operated by the original
creators of the long term, freeze dried food concept. Other companies (such
as AlpineAire) offer fine tasting, light weight freeze dried meals, but only
Mountain House products have any long term storage capability (depending on
your storage temprature, up to 50 years).
Freeze dried foods have 100% of their moisture removed. Then they’re packed
either in a can (usually the standard #10 size) or in light weight, easily
carried foil pack (after having the oxygen flushed out with nitrogen and
adding an oxygen absorber).
Mountain House #10 canned foods have a 30 to 50 year shelf life. Their foil
packs have about a 10 year shelf life. All other freeze dried companies have
around 1 to 2 year shelf life on their foil packs and cans.
Most freeze dried foods are what’s called “complete entree” style. Examples
are Chicken & Rice, Beef Stew, Mexican Style Chicken, etc. All you do is put
your desired helping in a pot, add the appropriate amount of hot water (that
’s how, stir and cover for about 15 minutes, then eat. Everything is
included in these products: meat, sauce, rice, seasonings, etc. These style
of meals are quick and simple to make.

The pros about using and storing freeze dried foods:
1) Extremely light in weight.
2) Extraordinary long term shelf life (depending on storage temperature)
3) Less than ½ hour to finished meal.

he cons about using freeze dried foods:

1) Cost. They are very expensive, but you have to consider that you’re not
buying a “meal” - you’re buying food security that can last you and your
family for up to 50 years.
2) You must have a source of clean water to rehydrate the food.
4) As the concept here is “storage”, you’ll need lots of space to stack
these cans

Level 4: Grab and run
So now, the “wolf’s at the door” and danger is eminent. You want to grab
something and just get outta Dodge. For quick and easy, you can always rely
on MRE’s (Meals Ready to Eat). You can find either the original, higher
calorie content, USGI versions around or the waaay overpriced civilian
versions (check Ebay). MRE’s are compact, quick and tasty. Unfortunately,
they have a storage life of around 5 years (less if stored above 65
degrees), are very expensive ($5.00 to $7.00 per meal pack) and are hard to
find in bulk.

The optimum source of emergency food are what’s called “Survival Food
Tablets”. Back in the 1960's the Federal Government was searching for a food
source that could be used in emergency and/or survival situations. The
objective was to find a product that would provide the best possible
nutrition in the smallest possible volume. Rescue vehicles, survival pods,
downed planes, etc.
The resulting research was extremely involved and intense, and the product
that evolved was used in the Early Space Program. Eventually, a tablet was
perfected and used widely as an emergency food. It came to be known as the
Survival Tab. These tabs are about the size of a marble, are chewable and
taste like malt or chocolate.
The Survival Tabs will keep you alive and moving for months at a time, on
the amount you can carry in your backpack.
Survival Food Tabs come in a plastic, food grade bottle that holds 180
chewable tabs. The bottle will fit perfectly into a GI canteen holder and
can double as a canteen. This is enough food to keep me (6'2", 250 lbs)
alive for over a week.
So now you get a general idea of the where’s and whyfores of food storage.
Just remember to "cycle" any food stores you have. Use the oldest stuff
first and replace with fresh, newer stuff. In an emergency, life-or-death
situation, you don't want to open a can of anything that's gone long past
it's experiation date.
KW
http://www.survivalenterprises.com/news.php


Solvatten Solar Jerrycan Purifies Water Using Nothing But Sunshine
By Elaine Chow, 12:30 AM on Tue Jan 13 2009, 10,322 views
Providing clean water is an integral part to any effort to raise third-world living standards. Solvatten, a Swedish-designed water purifier, does its job using nothing but a couple of hours in the sun.
The Solvatten looks like a standard jerrycan sliced in half and divided into two 5 liter compartments, each of which has a clear face. The two chambers are exposed to sunlight, which naturally heats the water to a pathogen-killing temperature of roughly 130° F. An indicator changes from red to green when the water is safe to drink.
The whole process takes about 3 to 4 hours when its sunny, and 5 to 6 when it's cloudy. While that's not perhaps the fastest way to cure water, the amount of resources it saves compared to boiling over gas stoves makes it ideal for making sure some clean H2O will be on hand later.
http://i.gizmodo.com/5129971/solvatten-solar-jerrycan-purifies-water-using-nothing-but-sunshine

UK jobless rise of 40,000 in a week just 'tip of the iceberg'
The unemployment total has risen by more than 40,000 in little over a week, with experts warning that this is only the "tip of the iceberg".
The unemployment total has risen by more than 40,000 in little over a week, with experts warning that this is only the "tip of the iceberg".
In one of the darkest days for UK employment in recent memory, companies said they planned to cut over 3,400 jobs, including Barclays and Jaguar Land Rover.
A further 6,300 jobs are also under threat with companies struggling to stay afloat in the face of an almost unprecedented slump in business activity over Christmas.
Households were warned to brace themselves for repeated waves of redundancies lasting all the way until 2011 as the UK sinks into the deepest recession since the Second World War.
The number of confirmed job losses in the past 10 days alone has mounted to over 40,000, with a swathe of businesses joining Woolworths in either closing down or slashing back their workforces.
News of the latest cuts came as shares in London fell sharply despite the Government's announcement of a £21.3bn package of guarantees for lending to small and mid-tier companies.
Barclays announced it is to cut a further 2,100 jobs – on top of the 2,130 it announced on Tuesday – with the latest round of redundanciess coming from its retail and commercial banking branch.
The bank is one of the few UK institutions to have avoided so far having to call on the Government for emergency cash injections but has acknowledged that its balance sheet has been compromised by the financial crisis.
Elsewhere, Jaguar Land Rover, the troubled car maker, is cutting 450 jobs as it and other manufacturers see their sales slide.
The company, which has been appealing for government support following steep falls in new car sales, said it had axed staff to "help address the immediate challenges posed by the credit crunch". Chief executive David Smith said it was "critical" that the company "becomes a more efficient and dynamic organisation".
Administrators for music, DVD and games retailer Zavvi closed 18 of its branches, resulting in 353 job losses, while pharmaceuticals group Pfizer said it will cut up to 240 UK jobs and manufacturing group Fenner cut 290 positions.
Freemans Grattan, the home shopping company, owned by the German mail order company Otto Group said it would undertake a restructuring that would lead to significant job losses among its 3,800 staff. A spokesman said the job losses will run into "four figures".
Denby Pottery said its 700-strong workforce could be at risk, while telecoms equipment group Nortel filed for bankruptcy protection, which could affect 2,000 UK staff.
A number of economists now expect unemployment to mount tolevels seen in the early 1990s. Capital Economics predicts that the number of people out of work will rise to 3.5m – some 11pc of the workforce.
John Philpott, Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development chief economist, said: "You can't necessarily judge the full picture from the redundancies that we're seeing.
"A lot of jobs will also be lost by simply not re-hiring staff when they leave. The redundancies are just the tip of the iceberg."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4244581/UK-jobless-rise-of-40000-in-a-week-just-tip-of-the-iceberg.html

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Feds confirm salmonella contamination at Ga. plant
January 16, 2009 - 9:36pm
By KATE BRUMBACK and RICARDO ALONSO-ZALDIVAR
Associated Press Writers
WASHINGTON (AP) - The latest national food safety investigation took on new urgency Friday as federal officials confirmed salmonella contamination at a Georgia facility that ships peanut products to 85 food companies. On Capitol Hill, the House Energy and Commerce Committee requested records as it opened its own inquiry.
The outbreak has sickened hundreds of people in 43 states and killed at least six. Earlier this week, it prompted Kellogg to pull some of its venerable Keebler crackers from store shelves, as a precaution.
Although the investigation has gone into high gear, Food and Drug Administration officials say much of their information remains sketchy. And new cases are still being reported.
"This is a very active investigation, but we don't yet have the data to provide consumers with specifics about what brands or products they should avoid," said Stephen Sundlof, director of the FDA's food safety center. Although salmonella bacteria has been found at the Georgia plant, for example, more tests are needed to see if it matches the strain that has gotten people sick.
But clearly, what began as an investigation of bulk peanut butter shipped to nursing homes and institutional cafeterias is now much broader.
It includes not just peanut butter, but baked goods and other products that contain peanuts and are sold directly to consumers. Health officials say as many as one-third of the people who got sick did not recall eating peanut butter.
"The focus is on peanut butter and a wide array of products that might have peanut butter in them," said Dr. Robert Tauxe, director of the foodborne illness division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Officials said they are focusing on peanut paste _ which is essentially ground up peanuts _ as well as peanut butter, produced at a Blakely, Ga., facility owned by Peanut Corp. of America. The concern about peanut paste is significant because it can be used in dozens of products, from baked goods to cooking sauces.
"It could be a very broad range of peanut-based products here," said Donna Rosenbaum, head of STOP, Safe Tables Our Priority, a consumer group. "We don't know exactly what comes out of this plant. They really don't have their arms around all that."
Federal officials said they are focusing on 32 of the 85 companies that Peanut Corp. supplies, because of the time period in which they received shipments of peanut butter or paste. The companies are being urged to test their products, or pull them from the shelves as Kellogg did.
The government is also scrutinizing a grower, raising the possibility that contamination could have occurred before peanuts reached the processing plant, which passed its last inspection by the Georgia agriculture department this summer.
Peanut Corp. initially recalled 21 lots of peanut butter made at the plant since July 1 because of possible salmonella contamination. But late Friday the company expanded its voluntary recall to include all peanut butter produced at the Georgia plant since Aug. 8 and all peanut paste produced since Sept. 26. The company, which suspended peanut butter processing at the facility, said none of its peanut butter is sold directly to consumers, but is distributed to institutions, food service industries and private label food companies.
"We deeply regret that this product recall is expanding and our first priority is to protect the health of our customers," Peanut Corp. CEO Stewart Parnell said in a statement. "Based upon today's news, we will not wait for confirmation of the DNA strains and plan to recall all of the affected products produced during the time period."
Parnell added that the plant would be closed immediately for the investigation.
But Kellogg Co., which gets some peanut paste from the Blakely facility, asked stores late Wednesday to stop selling some of its Keebler and Austin peanut butter sandwich crackers. The company said it hasn't received any reports of illnesses.
Peanut Corp. said it is cooperating with federal and state authorities. On Friday, the House Energy and Commerce Committee wrote the company requesting inspection and internal records dating back four years.
"Peanut butter is not supposed to be a risky food," said Patty Lovera, assistant director of Food & Water Watch. "What went wrong? And what does this mean about foods that are considered high-risk, such as raw vegetables?"
Sundlof said salmonella does not thrive in peanut butter, but can remain dormant. Then, when somebody eats the contaminated peanut butter, the bacteria begin to multiply. "That is apparently what happened in this case," he said.
Meanwhile, state health officials on Friday announced that a sixth death has been linked to the outbreak which has sickened more than 450 people in 43 states.
An elderly North Carolina man died in November from the same strain of salmonella that's causing the outbreak, North Carolina health officials said Friday. Tests taken the day before he died indicated the infection had overrun his digestive system and spread to his bloodstream, said Dr. Zack Moore, an epidemiologist with the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.
Health officials in Minnesota and Virginia have linked two deaths each to the outbreak and Idaho has reported one. Four of those five were elderly people, and all had salmonella when they died, though their exact causes of death haven't been determined. But the CDC said the salmonella may have contributed.
The CDC said the bacteria behind the outbreak _ typhimurium _ is common and not an unusually dangerous strain but that the elderly or those with weakened immune systems are more at risk. The salmonella outbreak is the second in two years involving peanut butter. Salmonella is the nation's leading cause of food poisoning; common symptoms include diarrhea, fever and abdominal cramps.

On the Net:
FDA: http://tinyurl.com/8srctw
http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1572219

Eeyore's News and View

Stocks falls on bank anxiety, Apple down after bell
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Stocks fell to six-week lows on Wednesday on worries about steeper losses at banks worldwide and as U.S. retail sales data pointed to a deepening recession.
The bleeding could continue Thursday after technology bellwether Apple Inc (AAPL.O) said that its chief executive, Steve Jobs, will take a medical leave of absence until June, a surprise development that sent equity index futures lower.
On Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbled more than 3 percent, and all 30 Dow stocks were in the red, including Citigroup (C.N). The bank shed more than 23 percent as investors and analysts worried whether the bank can be profitable as it unravels its business model. It is expected to post a multibillion-dollar loss this week.
Highlighting the strain banks are under, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. government is close to extending billions more aid to Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), sending the bank's stock lower after the bell.
Fears about the banking sector were exacerbated after Morgan Stanley analysts forecast HSBC (HSBA.L)(HBC.N), Europe's biggest bank, is likely to halve its dividend and may need to raise up to $30 billion of capital, while Germany's Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) (DB.N) said it lost more than $6 billion last quarter.
"There is an awful lot of uncertainty out there about how severe the economic downturn will be and whether there will be a second round of asset write-downs," said Lincoln Anderson, managing director and chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston.
The Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) fell 248.42 points, or 2.94 percent, to 8,200.14. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) gave up 29.17 points, or 3.35 percent, at 842.62. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) lost 56.82 points, or 3.67 percent, to 1,489.64.
Sales at U.S. retailers fell 2.7 percent in December as the economic slowdown made consumers cut back on spending during retailers' crucial holiday selling period.
Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, making it a key pillar of corporate profits.
The day's declines put another wrench in the market's attempt to recover from the November bear market low. The broad S&P 500 had gained more than 20 percent from that level, but is now up only close to 14 percent. It was the sixth straight day of declines for the Dow, racking up losses of 815 points, or 9 percent.
The S&P financial index (.GSPF) was down 5.7 percent. Since the start of the year, the index has managed only two up days. Citigroup was down 23.2 percent at $4.53 after a deal by the embattled bank to sell a controlling stake in its crown jewel, the Smith Barney retail brokerage unit, to Morgan Stanley (MS.N) for $2.7 billion.
Analysts speculate the Smith Barney sale is a precursor to a break-up of Citigroup and that the bank must be urgently seeking to replenish capital due to mounting losses.
Citigroup is due to report its results on Friday, after moving up the reporting date, while JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is due to post its results on Thursday, after also moving up its date. JPMorgan fell 1.7 percent to $25.91.
Bank of America fell nearly 6 percent to $9.61 in extended trade following the Wall Street Journal report.
Apple shares fell nearly 10 percent after the bell after Jobs announced his decision to take a medical leave, saying his health problems are "more complex" than he had thought. The statement came just over a week after Jobs sought to alleviate nagging worries about his health.
The S&P retail index (.RLX) fell 3.6 percent on worries cash-strapped consumers spooked by the recession will remain unwilling to buy.
Energy shares also tumbled, taking oil's lead as U.S. crude fell 50 cents to $37.28 a barrel on rising inventories and weakening demand from the United States, the world's biggest energy consumer. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Chevron (CVX.N) were among the Dow's biggest drags, falling 3.6 percent to $75.10 and 3 percent to $69.69, respectively.
The Federal Reserve's anecdotal Beige Book report on the economy added to the sour picture, showing the economy weakened further into the opening days of the new year.
Tax and domestic help troubles surrounding Treasury secretary-nominee Timothy Geithner further dampened investor sentiment, but President-elect Barack Obama said he expects Geithner to be confirmed. Geithner would be Obama's point man on efforts to combat the financial crisis.
Trading was moderate on the New York Stock Exchange, with about 1.42 billion shares changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of roughly 1.9 billion, while on Nasdaq about 1.94 billion shares traded, below last year's daily average of 2.17 billion.
Declining stocks outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,793 to 318 while decliners beat advancers on the Nasdaq by about 2,263 to 477.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090114/bs_nm/us_markets_stocks

Nouriel Roubini 2009 U.S. GDP Forecasting 40% Home Mortgage Failures?
Last week Dr. Nouriel Roubini's newsletter (RGE Monitor) predicted a peak to trough in US housing of 38% to 44% with a bottom not before mid 2010.
That's the first time I saw Roubini put a number on house prices. My projection three months ago said (low-case) peak to trough 32% with a bottom mid 2010 ( Fixing the U.S. Housing Market and House Prices).
So "SNAP!" - more or less.
But my projection of 32% was based on 3% nominal GDP growth in 2009 (I don't do GDP I just do real estate prices, I look up the GDP projections), but things are looking worse now. Of course Roubini is the most pessimistic, that's why they call him "Dr. Doom".
If Roubini is right in that nominal GDP growth will be -5.4% in 2009 (-3.4% real and -2% inflation) then my model says that house-prices will fall 15% in 2009 (peak to end of 2009 = 35%).
What happens in 2010 will depend on the economy, and no one is talking about that. Roubini hints that the recession could be over by 2010; so for the sake of argument let's say 2% nominal GDP growth in 2010 (what's real and what's inflation doesn't matter for my model).
In that case my model says the bottom will be some time after mid 2010 with a total peak to trough of 40%. That's all assuming that long-term interest rates stay low.
So "SNAP!" and " SNAP!"... using Roubini's numbers for the economy my model delivers mid-range of his projection. Time for mutual admiration perhaps?
Methodology
RGE don't explain their methodology so it's hard to say if that's two independent views or the same model done twice.
Just for the record, the core of my model is a valuation and in any coherent valuation you are obliged to explain the methodology (I do).
That's unless you are using Zimbabwe Valuation Standards, or the "Bean Counter's Big Surprise Valuation Standards" mandated under US GAAP and IFRS. But then RGE's price forecast is an "economic" prediction, and for that, well apparently, anything goes.
I can't help wondering if the current mess might have something to do with economists (and bean counters) thinking they have the inside edge on doing valuations for assessing capital adequacy of banks with debt secured by real estate? Isn't that a bit like hiring an (expensive) dentist to clean your drains?
Nah...can't be that, Allan Greenspan is a genius and a GREAT ECONOMIST, I know that because he said so himself.
And if you can't understand that "froth" means the "biggest property bubble in history" you should be working minimum wage as a security guard, if you can get a job at all!
Anyway, back to the point, I suspect we are independent since RGE's logic appears to be based on inventory (housing starts and foreclosures) and uptake. My model ( Value of Housing Markets in USA and UK Past, Present, and Future) is based on International Valuation Standards and 100+ years of data and does not need to know anything about starts, foreclosures, or sales; rather these are predicted by the model.
It's an important distinction, if price is affected by starts, foreclosures, and sales then the logical strategy to "rescue" house prices (and the bonds that depend on them - i.e. fix the mess), is to cut starts and foreclosures and to encourage sales by getting Fannie and Freddie to lend irresponsibly.
Or in the words of that Great American Poet..."do it to me one more time...BABY". That appears, at least to the untrained observer, to be the current strategy.
But the valuation model says "NO, that won't do anything to prices".
For the valuation model, price is independent of starts, foreclosures or sales, in fact it's price that drives those variable, and that's driven by nominal GDP, long-term interest rates and the inevitability of Farrell's Rule with the only possible way out of the loop being to implement "Surprise-Free Valuation Standards" (as was argued in UK Housing Market Will Not Bottom Before 2012) .
Not that there is anything wrong with economic theories, just they often confuses cause with effect which has the tendency to send people in the wrong direction, like when Allan Greenspan pushed down interest rates so that we could all enjoy a "bit of froth". And very tasty froth it was too! Thanks Allan.
Here's why:
Logically price drives starts (I've done development, you don't start when prices are in a hole unless you have a theory and an inside track to a banker (preferably a bent one), that much I know).
So I think it's safe to assume that the logic in RGE's argument is that if starts are falling then the market knows something. Well no contest there; I say price drives starts too; just I get to starts via price rather than the other way around...cause and effect.
You can say what you like about foreclosures but my view is that they are driven by either price or GDP (which in turn drives my model - i.e. there could be cross correlation), and that if foreclosures are to some extent, driving price down (the conventional wisdom amongst economists), then the effect is part of a feedback loop ( The U.S. Housing Market Economic Double Negative Feedback Loop) .
Sure sales can be driven by irresponsible lending, but only if the trajectory of price is upwards ( Time for Selective Buying of Mortgaged Backed Securities?) .
Now the trajectory is down, that's a different ball game. Sure also, constraints on lending slow sales, but the valuation model seems to suggest this doesn't do anything to price when prices are falling (people just don't move).
It's a small point but what that says is that bailing out distressed mortgages and getting Fannie and Freddie to be irresponsible again won't affect prices, but it might affect GDP in the long term (negatively).
Predicting Foreclosures
In October I put up a chart based on combining some data that I found on the FT website on foreclosures by State, with some other data I trawled up on GDP growth by State.
I thought it might help resolve the point about foreclosures. This showed that there was a relationship between foreclosures (by State) and GDP growth per State (65% R-Squared or so). ( The U.S. Housing Market Economic Double Negative Feedback Loop) .
Basically foreclosures shoot up when GDP growth goes down below 1%. If average GDP growth goes down to -3.4% (real) it looks like we may be having the fun of accelerating foreclosures some time soon (which, now that GDP has started to tank, seems to be happening - ummm....could the two be related?)
So cause and effect, either (a) falling GDP drives foreclosures (b) foreclosures drive GDP down (c) there is a feedback loop or (d) foreclosures and GDP are independent and a 65% R-Squared is just a chance occurrence?
My view is (a) with a bit of (c).
So by how much?
Well I know that you are not "supposed" to project outside the data, but just for a bit of fun I tracked back the best fit regression line to minus 3.4% GDP Growth.
Umm...oh dear I hope either the regression line that predicts foreclosures from GDP or GDP from foreclosures (or a bit of both) doesn't mean that at minus 3.4% GDP foreclosures will pop up to 40%.
Or if that's the story I hope that Nouriel Roubini is wrong about his GDP projections!
He's been wrong before, he must have been; he's an economist after all! Didn't he say the crunch would happen before 2005, in which case perhaps his -3.4% GDP growth won't happen before 2012...whew!!!
But maybe not...oh dear oh dear, and just for a bit of froth! There again it's non-recourse debt so all those people pushed into negative equity can just jingle their way out of the hole. Thank God for that! Oh but oops…I almost forgot, what about the securities?
Don't worry we will get the Chinese and the SWF's to bail us out, no problem! And if that fails there is always the grandchildren.
Right now house prices in USA are under-valued (below the long-term equilibrium line), but unless there is REAL CHANGE they will keep going down as increasingly jingle-mail becomes the only option.
So HAPPY TIMES... 40% to 44% peak to trough and (perhaps) 40% foreclosure on home mortgages, here we come!
Yup I think that Cowboy George deserves a long rest, and although the new guy is possibly the first US President in a long time that anyone felt like dancing in the streets about, I must say, last time I saw him on TV he did seem to have a look like "darn...what have I let myself in for?"
It's one thing to run a brilliant election campaign; it's another to run the can of worms that the US Government has evolved into.
The numbers on inflation, the real size of the government's liabilities, and the "efficiency" with which money is funneled out of the back door to special interests; these are all manipulated by a shadowy tribe of vampires. And the hastily concocted "Stimulus Plan" just plays into their hands.
Right now there is only one number in USA that the manipulators of power can't (presently) get their hands on. That's how much people will pay for a house in a free and open market.
For years Fannie and Freddie distorted that number (they were set up so people could afford to own homes, their effect was to radically increase the price of housing – figure that one out), but eventually that proved to be an unsustainable scam. Ask the Master Scammer Mr. Madof, he knows, eventually every scam runs out of money.
Fannie and Freddie "temporarily" ran out of money, sure they were dressed up as instruments of the Free Market, maybe before 1987 when they changed the accounting rules for measuring inflation they were, but from that point they became instruments of crony capitalism that sucked all the blood out of America.
If CHANGE is really the objective then in Washington nothing changes, the words are the same, "FOLLOW THE MONEY". And make sure it's counted properly.
Forget about US GAAP and IFRS, there is only one tool that properly values assets and liabilities, a silver stake that can tear out the heart of the vampires.
It's called International Valuation Standards.
IF you really want "CHANGE", THEN use that tool.
By Andrew Butter
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8126.html

Big Brother's new target: Tracking of all firearms
'This is nothing less than a declaration of war on American gun owners'
Posted: January 13, 2009
10:08 pm Eastern
By Drew Zahn
© 2009 WorldNetDaily
Rep. Bobby Rush, D-Ill.
U.S. Rep. Bobby Rush, D-Ill., is hoping to pass a firearm-licensing bill that will significantly rewrite gun-ownership laws in America.
Among the more controversial provisions of the bill are requirements that all handgun owners submit to the federal government a photo, thumb print and mental heath records. Further, the bill would order the attorney general to establish a database of every handgun sale, transfer and owner's address in America.
The bill claims its purpose is "to protect the public against the unreasonable risk of injury and death associated with the unrecorded sale or transfer of firearms to criminals and youth."
Get "Shooting Back," the incredible DVD that shows once and for all why you should be packing heat for the protection of yourself and your loved ones, only from WND!
Columnist David Codrea of Guns Magazine, however, calls it a "ridiculous affront to liberty."
"This is nothing less than a declaration of war on American gun owners," Codrea writes on Gun Rights Examiner.
Rush's proposed bill, H.R. 45, is alternatively known as "Blair Holt's Firearm Licensing and Record of Sale Act of 2009," named after an Illinois teenager killed by a gunshot.
According the bill's text, "On the afternoon of May 10, 2007, Blair Holt, a junior at Julian High School in Chicago, was killed on a public bus riding home from school when he used his body to shield a girl who was in the line of fire after a young man boarded the bus and started shooting."
The bill then argues that interstate firearm trafficking and children dying from gun violence create legitimate cause for the federal government to monitor gun ownership and transfers in new ways.
If passed, the bill would make it illegal to own or possess a "qualifying firearm" – defined as any handgun or any semiautomatic firearm that takes an ammunition clip – without a "Blair Holt" license.
To obtain a "Blair Holt" license, an application must be made that includes a photo, address, all previous aliases, thumb print, completion of a written firearm safety test, release of mental health records to the attorney general and a fee not to exceed $25.
Further, the bill makes it illegal to transfer ownership of a qualifying firearm to anyone who is not a licensed gun dealer or collector. Exceptions to this rule include transfer to family members by gift or bequest and loans, not to exceed 30 days, of a firearm for lawful purposes "between persons who are personally known to each other."
The bill also requires qualifying firearm owners to report all transfers to the attorney general's database. It would also be illegal for a licensed gun owner to fail to record a gun loss or theft within 72 hours or fail to report a change of address within 60 days.
And if a minor obtains a weapon and injures someone with it, the owner of the gun – if deemed to have failed to meet certain safety requirements – faces a multiple-year jail sentence.
H.R. 45 is a resurfacing of 2007's H.R. 2666, which contained much of the same language and was co-sponsored by 15 other representatives and Barack Obama's current chief of staff, Rahm Emmanuel. H.R. 2666 was assigned to the House Judiciary committee, where no action was taken.
H.R. 45 currently has no co-sponsors and is likewise assigned to the House Judiciary committee.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=86039

Group asks states to track citizens' ammo
Organization claims it is 'saving lives 1 bullet at a time'
Posted: December 09, 2008
10:05 pm Eastern
By Chelsea Schilling
© 2009 WorldNetDaily
Coded bullet (photo: KOMO-TV, Seattle)
Legislation to trace ammunition is pending in several states, and many gun owners are concerned that it is just another attempt by anti-gun groups to violate citizens' Second Amendment rights.
An organization known as Ammunition Accountability is pushing to make coding technology mandatory across the nation. Its website claims it is a group of "gun crime victims, industry representatives, law enforcement, public officials, public policy experts, and more" who are "saving lives one bullet at a time."
If states pass the legislation, manufacturers will be required to laser etch a serial number into the back of each bullet and the inside of cartridge casings, a patented process developed by Seattle, Wash., resident Russ Ford and his business partners, Steve Mace and John Knickerbocker.
According to Seattle Weekly, the men couldn't find an ammunition manufacturer to agree to stamp bullets, so they hired a lobbyist to push for state legislation to require the laser coding. They launched the Ammunition Accountability website and successfully introduced bills in the following 18 states: Alabama, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee and Washington.
Many of the proposals have died or stalled in committee; however the group is still urging lawmakers across the country to introduce the same kind of legislation in other states.
Ammunition Accountability explains its system would require states to establish databases to track coded ammunition for handguns and assault rifles. The databases would be funded by a surcharge of up to five cents per bullet.
According to its sample legislation, manufacturers would be forced to code all ammunition sold in the state. Private citizens and retail outlets would be required to dispose of all non-coded ammunition no later than Jan. 1, 2011.
Each vendor would record the following information about customers who buy the ammunition: Date, name, driver's license or ID number, date of birth and ammunition identifier. The businesses would maintain records for three years from the date of purchase.
"[W]hen a potential criminal purchases a box of 9mm cartridges, the box of ammunition and the bullets' coding numbers would be connected to the purchaser in a statewide database," Ammunition Accountability explains. "When a bullet is found at a crime scene, the code on the bullet can be read with a simple magnifying glass and then be run through a statewide database to determine who purchased the ammunition and where, providing a valuable investigative lead."
However, critics claim the system is severely flawed.
The National Rifle Association warns encoding ammunition would result in forfeiture of currently owned ammunition, separate registration for every box of ammo, outrageously expensive costs for police and private citizens and wasted taxpayer money that could be spent on traditional police programs.
The NRA also suggests private citizens could be required to keep records on anyone who uses or buys their ammunition – even family members and friends. Furthermore, it said lawbreakers could find ways to prevent their bullets from being traced.
"Criminals could beat the system," the NRA claims. "A large percentage of criminals' ammunition (and guns) is stolen. Criminals could also collect ammunition cases from shooting ranges, and reload them with molten lead bullets made without serial numbers."
Some bloggers suggested criminals could simply modify their own rounds by removing the coding before firing them.
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=83210

Australia's stock market slides 4.3 percent
January 15, 2009 - 1:08am
SYDNEY, Australia (AP) - Australian stocks slid more than 4 percent Thursday as grim U.S. holiday sales and concerns over the banking industry sent stocks across the Asia Pacific region plunging.
The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 157.5 points, or 4.3 percent, at 3,529.5 and the broader All Ordinaries index fell 147.5 points, or 4.1 percent, to 3,476.8.
The nosedive came the same day that government figures were released showing unemployment in Australia had inched to a two-year high of 4.5 percent in December.
Investor sentiment had already been dinged by a U.S. government report showing retail sales dropped 2.7 percent last month, more than double the decline economists had expected. A flurry of bad news for international banks also sent stocks across Asia tumbling.
Iron ore producer Rio Tinto lost AU$3.31, or 8.2 percent, to close at AU$37.30 following a significant drop in iron ore output during the fourth quarter. Mining giant BHP Billiton lost AU$2.04, or 6.6 percent, to close at AU$28.90.
http://wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1509621

Singapore retail sales fall 5.2 pct in November
January 15, 2009 - 1:23am

SINGAPORE (AP) - Singapore retail sales fell in November as the city-state's residents tightened their belts amid the worst recession in decades.
Retail sales fell a seasonally adjusted 5.2 percent in November from the previous month and decreased 3.4 percent from the same month a year earlier, the statistics department said in a statement Thursday.
Singapore is facing its worst recession since splitting from Malaysia in 1965 as global demand for exports slows.
The government said earlier this month that gross domestic product shrank a seasonally adjusted 12.5 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter and contracted 2.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the same period a year earlier.
The government expects GDP in 2009 could contract as much as 2 percent or in the best case scenario grow just 1 percent.
Manufacturing fell 9.0 percent in the fourth quarter while non-oil exports plunged 17.5 percent in November.
http://wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1505569

Stocks tumble as worries grow about banks
By SARA LEPRO and TIM PARADIS
NEW YORK (AP) - Volatility is reasserting itself in the stock market.
A darkening outlook for companies from banks to retailers to energy producers pummeled Wall Street Wednesday, sending the Dow Jones industrials down nearly 250 points, or 2.94 percent, and giving the other major indexes a loss of 3 percent.
The plunge leaves the Dow and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 index down more than 9 percent in six sessions. The S&P 500, the gauge tracked by professional investors, has now given up half its gains since it closed at an 11-year low on Nov. 20.
One of the catalysts behind the market's latest bout of turbulence Wednesday was the Commerce Department's December retail sales report. Wall Street knew retailers' cash registers weren't as busy this holiday season but the report was much worse than anticipated. The department said retail sales dropped 2.7 percent last month, more than double the 1.2 percent decline analysts forecast.
The record sixth straight month of declines is only the latest symptom of the economy's ills. Consumers hit by steep drops in home prices, rising unemployment and difficulty accessing credit have no choice but to pull back. That's troubling for Wall Street because consumer spending makes up more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Many analysts predict the year-old recession, already the longest in a quarter-century, will persist at least until late this year.
"No doubt the retail sales numbers that came in just reminded us how bad the fourth quarter is going to look," said Jim Dunigan, managing executive of investments at PNC Wealth Management.
The confluence of bad news and fears about extremely weak fourth-quarter earnings has sent stocks plunging this month. Wall Street had rallied during December and at the start of the year on hopes for an improving economy, but companies' earnings and outlooks and the continuing stream of weak economic data have brought pessimism back to the market.
Analysts expect investors to refrain from buying until they have a better picture of companies' forecasts for 2009, which so far aren't looking too bright.
"It's once again the market kind of obsessing that there's really little good news about the economy," said Edmund Hyland, managing director and global investments specialist at JPMorgan Private Bank in Atlanta. "I think anytime you're in the kind of bear market we're in, you kind of struggle along the bottom for a while."
Investors are also increasingly uneasy about the financial industry. Deutsche Bank AG' (DB)s announcement that it lost an estimated $6.4 billion in the fourth quarter intensified the market's concerns that banks in general are still suffering and will need more government help.
"People were thinking we were coming toward the end of this financial meltdown, but as you can tell from the news today, we're not even close to the end yet," said Dave Rovelli, managing director of trading at brokerage Canaccord Adams. "Financials are the backbone of the economy. If they aren't stable, you aren't going to see a sustainable rally."
After the close of trading, Apple Inc. (AAPL) announced that CEO Steve Jobs is taking a medical leave of absence until the end of June because his health issues are more complex than he thought. The news was likely to set off selling in tech stocks when the market reopened Thursday.
According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 248.42, or 2.94 percent, to 8,200.14. All 30 stocks that make up the Dow fell.
The S&P 500 fell 29.17, or 3.35 percent, to 842.62 and the Nasdaq composite index fell 56.82, or 3.67 percent, to 1,489.64. Both the Dow and S&P 500 hit intraday lows not seen since early last month.
The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 20.62, or 4.35 percent, to 453.17.
Only 314 stocks rose on the New York Stock Exchange, while 2,796 fell. Volume came to a light 1.42 billion shares.
Bond prices rose as stocks retreated. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.20 percent from 2.30 percent late Tuesday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, fell to 0.10 percent from 0.12 percent late Tuesday.
The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.
Light, sweet crude declined 50 cents to settle at $37.28 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
In other economic news Wednesday, businesses cut inventories in November by the largest amount in seven years as companies tried to cope with a record plunge in sales. The Commerce Department said inventories declined by 0.7 percent, more than the 0.5 percent drop analysts expected. It was the third straight month that businesses have reduced their stockpiles.
The Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy by region, known as the Beige Book, offered few surprises. The findings showed the economy has weakened in the past two months as consumers have trimmed spending, retailers have seen sales fall and as factories have scaled back production.
On Wednesday, bank stocks were among the biggest losers.
Citigroup Inc. (C), which announced Tuesday it would give control of its Smith Barney brokerage business to Morgan Stanley (MS), could soon shrink itself by one-third, according to a Wall Street Journal report Wednesday. The Journal says Citi is likely to announce plans next week to shed two consumer-finance units, the bank's private-label credit card business and cut back on trading it does on its own behalf.
While other financial firms don't appear to be in as dire a situation as Citigroup - which is expected to post its fifth straight quarterly loss at the end of the week - the industry's troubles are far from over, as Deutsche Bank's loss showed.
Wall Street will get its first taste of how the U.S. financial industry is faring Thursday, when JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) reports earnings nearly a week ahead of schedule.
Citigroup plunged more than 23 percent, falling $1.37 to $4.53, while Morgan Stanley lost $1.67, or 8.9 percent, to $17.19. JPMorgan fell 44 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $25.91.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Tuesday that more capital injections may be necessary to stabilize the financial markets and spur more lending.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley said HSBC PLC, Britain's biggest bank by market capitalization, may have to raise up to $30 billion and halve its dividend as earnings deteriorate. Royal Bank of Scotland PLC also said it was raising around $2.5 billion by selling its stake in Bank of China.
Among retailers, Macy's Inc. (M) fell 58 cents, or 5.8 percent, to $9.47, while energy company Chevron Corp. (CVX) fell $2.13, or 3 percent, to $69.69.
Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 dropped 4.97 percent, Germany's DAX index slid 4.63 percent, and France's CAC-40 fell 4.56 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average rose 0.29 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index rose 0.27 percent.
---
On the Net:
New York Stock Exchange: http://www.nyse.com
Nasdaq Stock Market: http://www.nasdaq.com
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20090114/D95N62P02.html

Eeyore's News and View

Officials: Toss salmonella-linked peanut butter
January 13, 2009 - 7:14am
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) - Health officials are urging nursing homes, hospitals, schools, universities and restaurants to toss out specific containers of peanut butter linked to a salmonella outbreak in 43 states.
The recalled peanut butter _ distributed by King Nut Companies of Solon, Ohio _ was supplied only through food service providers and was not sold directly to consumers. King Nut challenged the finding, saying it could not be the source of the nationwide outbreak since it distributes to only seven states.
The outbreak has sickened more than 400 people and Minnesota health officials announced Monday they had found a match between samples from a King Nut container and the strains of salmonella bacteria making people sick across the country. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the outbreak may have contributed to three deaths.
Officials are concerned the peanut butter is still being used, and Heidi Kassenborg of the Minnesota Department of Agriculture urged all institutions to throw it away.
State health and agriculture officials said last week they had found salmonella bacteria in a 5-pound package of King Nut peanut butter at a nursing facility in Minnesota. Officials tested the bacteria over the weekend and found a genetic match with the bacterial strain that has led to 30 illnesses in Minnesota and others across the country.
"The commonality among all of our patients was that they ate peanut butter," said Doug Schultz, a spokesman with the Minnesota Department of Health. While the brand of peanut butter couldn't be confirmed in every case, the majority of patients consumed the same brand, he said Monday.
Minnesota officials were coordinating their investigation with the CDC, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and other states.
King Nut Companies on Sunday asked its customers to stop using peanut butter under its King Nut and Parnell's Pride brands with a lot code that begins with the numeral "8."
However, company president and chief executive Martin Kanan argued that King Nut could not be the source of the nationwide salmonella outbreak because the company distributes only to Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, North Dakota, Arizona, Idaho and New Hampshire. No other King Nut products have been voluntarily recalled.
The peanut butter King Nut distributed was manufactured by Peanut Corporation of America, a Virginia company. In an e-mail earlier Monday, President Stewart Parnell said the company was working with federal authorities.
The peanut butter was distributed to establishments such as care facilities, hospitals, schools, universities and restaurants. King Nut says it was not distributed for retail sale to consumers.
The CDC on Monday raised the number of confirmed cases to 410, from 399 as of Friday, and Mississippi became the 43rd state to report a case. All the illnesses began between Sept. 15 and Jan. 7, but most of the people became sick after Oct. 1.
Kanan held out the possibility that the contamination came from another source, since the salmonella was found in an open container.
"That means there's a possibility of cross-contamination, somebody could have been cutting a piece of chicken and then stuck the knife into the peanut butter for a peanut butter sandwich," he said. "There have been no tests that have come back positive on a closed container."
The peanut butter contamination comes almost two years after ConAgra recalled its Peter Pan brand peanut butter, which was eventually linked to at least 625 salmonella cases in 47 states.
CDC officials say the bacteria in the current outbreak has been genetically fingerprinted as the Typhimurium type, which is among the most common sources of salmonella food poisoning.
Associated Press writers Martiga Lohn in St. Paul and Thomas J. Sheeran in Cleveland contributed to this report.
On the Net:
FDA: http://www.fda.gov/oc/po/firmrecalls/kingnut01_09.html
King Nut: http://www.kingnut.com/site.cfm/news.cfm

Firm Press Release

FDA posts press releases and other notices of recalls and market withdrawals from the firms involved as a service to consumers, the media, and other interested parties. FDA does not endorse either the product or the company.
Kellogg Company Announces Precautionary Hold on Austin and Keebler Branded Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers
Contact:
Kellogg Consumer Response Center
888...
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE -- Battle Creek, MI -- January 14, 2009 -- Kellogg Company today announced it has taken the precautionary measure of putting a hold on Austin® and Keebler® branded Toasted Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers, Peanut Butter and Jelly Sandwich Crackers, Cheese and Peanut Butter Sandwich Crackers, and Peanut Butter-Chocolate Sandwich Crackers.
FDA and other regulatory agencies have indicated that Peanut Corporation of America (PCA) is the focus of their investigation concerning a recent Salmonella outbreak thought to be caused by tainted peanut butter. PCA is one of several peanut paste suppliers that the company uses in its Austin® and Keebler® branded peanut butter sandwich crackers.
Kellogg Company's investigation has not indicated any concerns, nor has the Company received any consumer illness complaints about these products.
Nonetheless, Kellogg Company is taking precautionary measures including putting a hold on any inventory in its control, removing product from retail store shelves, and encouraging customers and consumers to hold and not eat these products until regulatory officials complete their investigation of PCA and Kellogg provides further information as to the resolution of this issue.
"Consumer health and safety is our top priority," said David Mackay, president and CEO, Kellogg Company. "We are taking these voluntary actions out of an abundance of caution."
While no additional consumer action is necessary at this time, consumers with questions or who would like a product refund can call the Kellogg Consumer Response Center at 888-314-2060.
http://www.fda.gov/oc/po/firmrecalls/kellogg01_09.html

A Little History Lesson For Rep. Walter B. Jones About Military Chaplains
Written by Chris Rodda
Monday, 12 January 2009 00:00
By Chris Rodda
Here we go again -- the new session of Congress has just begun and another bill about military chaplains praying in Jesus' name has already been introduced.
On Jan. 7, Rep. Walter B. Jones (R-NC) introduced H.R. 268, a bill "To amend title 10, United States Code, to ensure that every military chaplain has the prerogative to close a prayer outside of a religious service according to the dictates of the chaplain's own conscience." H.R. 268, a regurgitation of H.R. 6514, which was introduced in the last congress but never made it to the floor, would amend Title 10 of the U.S. Code to state, in five separate sections:
"If called upon to lead a prayer outside of a religious service, a chaplain shall have the prerogative to close the prayer according to the dictates of the chaplain's own conscience."

The State versus the Internet: Kentucky
Starts a Trade War
There's a war simmering right now, that you may not have heard about. The object of the war is control of the Internet.
In some ways, this war is similar to the deceitful "harmful tax competition" campaign that industrialized nations have been conducting against offshore jurisdictions for more than a decade. It involves the same protagonists: industrialized nations versus developing countries. And one of the opening salvos of this war is occurring, of all places, in a Kentucky courtroom.
Kentucky is trying to force 141 Internet gaming sites, none of them based in the United States (much less Kentucky) to block access to Kentucky users, or to relinquish control of their domain names. The state alleges, among other things, that online gaming drains money from horse racing, a key source of tax dollars. Following a hearing last September, a state judge ordered the domain names to be transferred to the state. That decision is now under appeal.
Many of the sites have already been transferred to the state or are barred from being transferred to another owner. Other sites have informed users based in Kentucky they will no longer be able to use the site.
Internet gambling is no doubt controversial, but that's not the point. Kentucky has fired the opening shot in a trade war against the Internet. It's been able to seize the property of dozens of non-U.S., non-Kentucky companies because many of the domain names are registered in the United States.
What's more, there's no reason to think that this trade war will be limited to Internet gambling. The Internet is the fastest growing segment of the global economy. In just the past four years, global Internet sales have exploded from US$87.5 billion (2004) to an estimated US$204 billion (2008).
Given this track record, it should come as no surprise that governments want to shut down competition to local bricks-and-mortar businesses. That's particularly true given the state of the global economy. In the United States alone, more than 75,000 major retail locations are expected to shut down in 2009. Many will never reopen - the businesses that operated there will increasingly exist only in cyberspace.
If you're an Internet entrepreneur, you've chosen to be involved with what may be the only fundamentally healthy aspect of the global economy. But if you offer a product or service that can be construed to compete with a bricks-and-mortar company in an industrialized country, expect to be attacked.
To deal with these attacks:
Register your domain name outside any major industrialized country.
Set up backup servers outside major industrialized countries.
Be prepared for court challenges from governments, such as that of Kentucky, to steal your intellectual property (IP).
Finally—if your Internet business is successful—you should take steps to transfer the ownership of your IP to a suitable offshore structure, if you haven't already done so. That way, when the Kentucky's of the world come after your Web site, you'll no longer own the most valuable part of it. That may not make bureaucrats very happy, but it will help insure that you can continue operating online.
MARK NESTMANN, Privacy Expert &
President of The Nestmann Group
http://www.nestmann.com/

Sexually spread diseases up, better testing cited
ATLANTA (AP) — Sexually spread diseases — for years on the decline — are on the rise in the United States, with reported chlamydia cases setting a record, government health officials said Tuesday.
The increase in chlamydia, a sometimes symptomless infection that can lead to infertility in women, is likely because of better screening, experts said. In 2007, there were 1.1 million cases, the most ever reported, said officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
At least 15,000 women become infertile each year because of untreated chlamydia and gonorrhea infections, said Dr. John M. Douglas Jr., director of the CDC's Division of STD Prevention.
Syphilis cases, which number only in the thousands, also rose modestly, while the number of gonorrhea cases remained roughly the same. Syphilis can kill, if left untreated, but chlamydia and gonorrhea are not life-threatening.
Chlamydia can infect men, but rates are nearly three times higher for women. That's at least partly due to 1993 federal recommendations that emphasize testing for sexually active women age 25 and under. That focus on screening in recent years is no doubt driving the record numbers, said Dr. Jonathan Zenilman, a professor of infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine.
"The issue with chlamydia is the more tests, the more you'll find," Zenilman said.
The percentage of young women being tested for the infection rose by double digits from 2003 to 2007, according to the National Committee for Quality Assurance, a nonprofit that monitors health care.
The latest case numbers for chlamydia translate to a rate of 370 cases per 100,000 people in 2007, up 7.5% from 2006.
The reported cases are just part of the picture. Health officials believe as many as 2.8 million Americans get chlamydia each year.
Many men and women have no symptoms from it. Some women experience pain in their lower abdomen or notice a burning sensation or a pus-like discharge when they urinate. Some men may also feel a burning during urination or have a discharge.
Gonorrhea cases appear to have plateaued and are currently at about 356,000 cases. Syphilis was on the verge of being eliminated in the United States about 10 years ago, but lately has been inching up. More than 11,000 new cases of the most contagious form of the disease were reported in 2007.
Syphilis is relatively rare but has become a growing threat, particularly for gay and bisexual men, who accounted for about 65% of the 2007 cases.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-01-13-std-cases_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip

Obama Called ''Best Gun Salesman of the Year''
by Jim Shepherd , The Outdoor Wire
posted January 14, 2009
Editorial Opinion by Jim Shepherd with ''The Outdoor Wire''
In recognition of the unprece­dented demand for firearms by nervous consumers, The Outdoor Wire has named President-elect Barack Obama its "Gun Salesman of the Year". For me, it was a simple fact of recognizing that without President-elect Obama's frightening consumers into action, the firearms industry might be suffering the same sort of business slumps that have befallen the automotive and housing industries.
It's credit where credit is due. Mr. Obama has consistently voted against individual rights to firearms, appointed a re-tread Clinton administration full of gun banners, and made it plain to anti-gun groups that despite what he might say to the contrary, he's on their side That history, along with the unquestioned support of anti-gun organizations has spooked consumers into a buying frenzy for firearms that could be outlawed in another Assault Weapons Ban.
Manufacturers are months behind on orders for semi-automatic pistols, AR-style rifles, and anything with so-called 'high-capacity magazines, buyers we've surveyed across the country seem to have a single explanation for their rush to purchase firearms - Obama.
The buying panic is not limited to people you might be described as aficionados or even 'gun nuts'. Recently, I was in a gun store when a gentleman came and said he'd never wanted to own a gun before, but wanted to get one while he still could."
Since the November Presidential election, firearms sales have been at unprecedented levels. For December 2008 the National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) recorded a twenty-four percent increase in background checks for 2008 (1,523,426) over December 2007 (1,230,525).
This follows a forty-two percent (42%) increase in November 2008, the highest number of NICS checks in the system's history. Those FBI background checks are required under federal law for all individuals purchasing firearms from federally licensed firearms retailers. In other words, gun sales have never been better.
Sales are so good that on Tuesday, January 6, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) issued a notice to all federal firearms licensees that "an unprecedented increase in demand for ATF Form 4473 had run supplies low enough that dealers were temporarily given permission to photocopy the form until supplies caught up with demand. Completion of a form 4473 is required whenever a federal firearms licensee sells a fire­arm.
As a journalist with more than two decades of national newsgathering experience, I've never seen anything approaching what he calls the "Obama effect". In fact, gun and ammunition sales are at such frantic levels that they have surpassed the panic-buying of Y2K or anything during the Clinton years when the first Assault Weapons Ban was passed. This time, he says, concerned consumers are buying guns and ammunition in anticipation of Obama Administration actions to prohibit certain types of firearms.
In 1999, the fear was that computers would shut down, crippling the world. Those fears were unfounded. I don't think the fears of an Obama administration banning guns are unfounded. His record speaks for itself. He's never failed to support an anti-gun measure, despite saying he supports the Second Amendment.
Moves to prohibit firearms sales would drastically impact a billion-dollar industry that is not only healthy, but pours more than one hundred fifty million dollars annually into conservation programs through an eleven percent tax collected on guns and ammo.
The Pittman-Robertson Act provides the vast majority of funding for wildlife agencies at the federal, state and local levels and that money comes directly from the tax levied against gun owners. Damaging the firearms industry won't just put workers in the gun business out of work, it will severely impact wildlife and conservation efforts nationally. That damage could take decades to repair - if it can be undone."
Choosing President-elect Obama as the Gun Salesman of the Year is a lot like a good-news, bad-news joke.His election has driven gun sales into the stratosphere, but his opposition to guns and gun ownership may be the biggest threat the industry has ever faced. If he puts scoring political points with anti-gun groups ahead of economic realities, he will be deliberately putting thousands of people out of work. I don't see that as an economic stimulus plan with much of a future."
"Today, the facts are indisputable. Barack Obama has spurred gun sales in a time when the entire economy seems to be tanking. If that doesn't make him the gun salesman of the year - if not the decade - I don't know what would.
http://www.chattanoogan.com/articles/article_142480.asp

Eeyore's News and View

Bush on border agents: 'I'm not talking pardons'
Laments failure of immigration reform, gives agency executive $60,000 bonus
Posted: January 12, 2009
By Chelsea Schilling
Ignacio Ramos and Jose Alonso Compe
President Bush has extensively discussed his immigration reform policy in exit interviews and given a $60,000 bonus to a Border Patrol chief who has been criticized for not supporting Ignacio Ramos and Jose Compean – but he refuses to talk about whether pardons could be in store for the imprisoned agents.
In a Jan. 6 interview with John Gizzi, political editor of Human Events, Bush said he regrets that the comprehensive immigration bill he endorsed did not prevail.
"Well, I'm sorry it didn't pass, because I felt strongly that the comprehensive approach to immigration reform was necessary for border enforcement, as well as recognizing that there are people willing to do work Americans won't do," Bush said. "[W]ithout the law, by the way, we did put fence up, and the border is becoming more secure. People are now recognizing the truth that there are fewer crossings, and we've ended the catch and release and issues like that."
Bush expressed concern for illegal aliens who risk their lives to come to the United States.
"I don't like it when the law is so antiquated that people who are willing to do hard work become contraband, they get stuffed in the bottom of 18-wheelers in order to come and do a job that others aren't willing to do. I don't think that's right," he said.
Only two days later, the Washington Times reported Bush awarded a $61,200 bonus to Border Patrol Chief David V. Aguilar, who has been criticized by members of his own agency for refusing to support Ramos and Compean after they were sentenced to 11 and 12-year prison sentences, respectively, for shooting at an illegal alien drug dealer while he attempted to smuggle 750 pounds of marijuana across the border.
Aguilar made headlines in April 2007 when 100 top leaders of the National Border Patrol Council endorsed a no-confidence resolution against him, citing the cases of Ramos and Compean among other complaints.
The union, which represents 11,000 of the U.S. Border Patrol's nonsupervisory field agents, pointed to Aguilar's willingness to believe the "perjured allegations" of criminal aliens over his own agents.
"Front-line Border Patrol agents who risk their lives protecting our borders have every reason to expect that the leadership of their own agency will support them," NBPC President T.J. Bonner said in the statement. "When this does not occur, and instead they are undermined by their so-called leaders, no one should be surprised when they express a loss of confidence in those managers."
In yet another four-page letter acquired by the Washington Times last week, anonymous field agents blasted Aguilar for damaging the agency and jeopardizing agents with his "politically expedient decisions."
There has "never been a time when our chief has been so out of touch with the field, or a time when our chief has become a politician and lost sight of his most important responsibility: to be an advocate for the agency and its mission," the letter stated. "You clearly see yourself as an agent of change for political bosses rather than a person who has been entrusted to ensure that the Border Patrol remains a top-notch law enforcement agency, ready and able to carry out its critical function."
Nonetheless, Bush presented Aguilar with the presidential merit award for "sustained extraordinary accomplishment" amounting to almost twice the starting salary of a Border Patrol agent.
However, the president wasn't as willing to provide detailed answers when asked about the agents during the exit interview.
Gizzi asked Bush, "Are you going to pardon Ramos and Compean? Are you talking with them?"
He replied flatly, "I'm not talking pardons."
http://wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=85943

History's Most Terrifying Conventional Weapons
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
By Catherine Donaldson-Evans and Paul Wagenseil
Modern conventional weapons, deadly as they are, have no monopoly on terrorizing soldiers and civilians. Many military innovations of the past scared the enemy senseless — especially when only one side got to use them.
"When you defeat someone psychologically, that's really how you win battles," says Pentagon spokesman and artillery officer Lt. Col. Mark Wright. "If [enemy forces] think they've been beaten, they're going to turn and run."
Here, then, are five of the most terrifying conventional weapons of all time. Each was effective because it was a surprise introduction to a conflict, permitted essentially no defense, and only one side got to use it — though, as we'll see, that didn't always guarantee victory.
Some historians argue it was crucial to letting the continually dwindling empire — by the end, just the city of Constantinople — survive as long as it did.
The composition of Greek fire was a highly guarded state secret, one that was lost forever when the Ottoman Turks finally captured Constantinople in 1453. Modern historians speculate it contained some sort of petroleum, or possibly phosphorus.
It burned on water, could be shot in any direction and was packaged into grenades and cannonballs, helping the Byzantines fend off Arabs, Vikings, Crusaders, various Turks and all manner of Italians.
It could also be hurled by catapults over city walls or dumped on attackers trying to climb them.
But best of all were the specialized bowsprits built into Byzantine naval vessels, which made it appear as if the deadly flames were shooting out of the mouths of terrifying metal dragons, lions or other fierce animals.
It wasn't "so much the lethality as the fear of the flames," explains Wright. "It was very effective at sea — you could throw it on the enemy's ships and burn them down."
Napalm: This mixture of gasoline and a thickening agent is similar to Greek fire and is best known for use against Viet Cong supply lines by American forces during the Vietnam War. It was actually first used toward the end of World War II against German and Japanese positions.
American pilots noticed its effectiveness in terrifying the enemy during the Korean War, remarking that North Korean troops would surrender to aircraft following napalm attacks. The French used it against the Viet Minh, the Viet Cong's predecessors, later in the 1950s.
Napalm is so effective because it sticks to anything it hits and burns at about 1,800 degrees Fahrenheit for up to 10 minutes. There's little soldiers or civilians hit by it can do except hope to survive.
The Gatling gun: Briefly used by Union forces during the American Civil War, the first mass-production machine gun came into wide use in the 1870s and 1880s by European armies spreading their power across Africa and Asia in the race for empire.
The British used it to mow down Zulu tribesmen; the Russians did the same to nomadic horsemen on the Central Asian steppe.
It was less effective against modern armies. Much too heavy to be carried by hand, the Gatling gun was mounted on wheels like a cannon and cranked by the operator to turn the six firing barrels around a central axis as a second man stood to hand-feed the bullets.
This exposed its crew to rifle fire, and the huge amount of gunsmoke it gave off meant the crew often couldn't see what it was shooting at.
By the turn of the 20th century, the Gatling gun was being replaced by the more efficient, fully automatic Maxim gun and its derivatives, all of which saw much use in World War I.
But the Gatling principle came back after World War II, when American weapons designers mounted rapid-fire revolving-barrel guns on aircraft; the AC-130 Spectre and Spooky gunships and A-10 "Warthog" ground-support aircraft both use modern Gatling guns.
The Paris gun: This long-barreled artillery piece deployed by the Germans during World War I killed relatively few people, but because its range was so long — 75 to 80 miles — it told the citizens of Paris, far from the front lines, that the war could get to them too.
By the standards of the time, the Paris gun was truly a superweapon. Its barrel was over 100 feet long, it was mounted on a railway carriage manned by naval gunners and its shells tore away so much of the rifling during firing that sequentially wider shells had to be used until the barrel was completely torn up and had to be replaced.
Once fired, each shell reached an altitude of 25 miles, the edge of the stratosphere, where frictional forces were minimal, enabling them to travel further than any previous artillery weapon — so far that German gunners had to adjust their aim to compensate for the rotation of the Earth.
The first shells began landing in Paris in mid-March 1918, and locals, having heard neither aircraft nor guns, initially assumed they'd been bombed by a high-altitude blimp. The biggest loss of life came on March 29 when a shell hit a church during Good Friday services; 88 were killed.
"For a city the size of Paris, it was just a terror weapon," says Wright. "It didn't paralyze the city and didn't shut anything down, but it was a terrifying weapon to be able to reach out that far."
Fortunately for the French, the Paris gun could fire only about 20 shells per day and constantly needed to be overhauled. By the time it had to be moved out of range in the face of advancing Allied forces in August 1918, it had fired about 350 shells in total, killing 250 people over five months.
Although the Paris gun was dismantled and destroyed by the Germans to prevent its capture by the Allies, enough was known about it so that it influenced later designs. One joint U.S.-Canadian descendent project during the 1960s was used for low-cost ballistics tests.
That project's main designer, Gerald Bull, later became a renegade weapons peddler, selling long-range howitzers to South Africa and Iraq among others.
He was assassinated in Brussels in 1990, possibly by Israel's Mossad intelligence agency or by its Iranian counterpart, as he was trying to develop a 500-foot-long gun for Saddam Hussein.
The V-2 rocket: Germany's famed "revenge weapon" was the first ballistic missile to be used in wartime; its predecessor, the V-1 or "buzz bomb," was the first effective cruise missile. The entire early U.S. space program, and most of the Soviet one as well, was based on the V-2.
Early research on what later became the V-2 began long before the war. The first successful launch was in late 1942, but that was a fluke because almost all the other launches blew up in mid-air.
Hitler was rightly less than impressed with early tests, dismissing the V-2 as too expensive and inaccurate, but the airburst problem was eventually solved and mass production began in early 1944 at a slave-labor factory deep in central Germany.
Nearly 2,000 had been built before the first V-2 was launched into Paris on Sept. 8, 1944, causing little damage. Later that same day, two landed on London, killing three people, and for the next few months, the rocket war was on.
The V-2 was technically astonishing. Its liquid-fuel engines cut off about a minute after launch, their timing precisely controlled by an analog computer.
From then on it was mostly physics as the 50-foot, 27,000-pound rocket soared to the edge of space 55 miles up, then came down so fast it broke the sound barrier.
"The old V-1 [missiles] could be shot down," explains Wright. "The V-2 traveled at supersonic speeds and couldn't be tracked, couldn't be shot down."
Some V-2 launch teams were even equipped with long-range radio transmitters that pointed straight at the target, allowing the missile's receivers to home in by adjusting its four tailfins.
Its range was about 200 miles, and specially designed trailers meant it could be launched by mobile teams from anywhere.
Popular culture has fixed the notion of the V-2 as a weapon directed mainly against London, but it was the strategically key Belgian port of Antwerp that took even more hits, especially after the Germans failed to retake the city during the Battle of the Bulge at the end of 1944.
Once a V-2 was launched, there was little that could be done in defense. Early attempts to bombard them with anti-aircraft fire as they came down proved unsuccessful; there is one account of an American bomber downing one it happened to catch upon launch.
Countermeasures focused on destroying the launch facilities, but many were operated by highly mobile teams hiding in forests. (Submarine launches, planned for use against American coastal cities, passed tests but never came to fruition.)
Allied ground advances ended the V-2 launches in March 1945, when the rockets were either captured or moved out of range.
More than 3,000 V-2s had been launched against Western targets, and more than 7,000 people had died as a result.
But the ratio of deaths to losses made the V-2 a failure in terms of costs and benefits, especially since it did nothing to turn the tide of the war.
Far less lucky than the residents of London and Antwerp were the estimated 20,000 Russian, Polish and French slave laborers who were starved, hanged or simply worked to death as they built V-1 and V-2 missiles at the Mittelbau-Dora slave-labor camp in the central German mountains.
The real beneficiary of the V-2 program was the U.S. military, which spirited dozens of its scientists and engineers , including project leader Wernher von Braun, across the Atlantic, where they became the foundation of the U.S. ballistic-missile program and then later of NASA.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,476045,00.html

Take a pay cut and keep your jobs, bosses tell Vauxhall workers By Ray Massey
12th January 2009
Bosses at parent company General Motors said last night that they had reached agreement with union leaders across Europe for a 'new deal' to protect jobs.
Hans Demant, managing director and vice president of engineering at GM Europe, said: 'We have an umbrella agreement. We are looking at less work and less pay.'
Vauxhall cars are parked outside the cars giant's Ellesmere Port factory as workers will not face redundancy as long as they take a pay cut
It comes as talks between Vauxhall bosses and Business Secretary Lord Mandelson for a potential bailout through loans continue.
General Motors employs around 4,000 at the Vauxhall factory in Ellesmere Port, which produces the Astra, and a vanmaking factory in Luton.
Unions and car bosses have agreed that the among the flexible options will be: workers taking pay cuts; sabbaticals on 30 per cent salary; four- day weeks, and cuts to shifts.
Mr Demant said: 'As long as these agreements are in place we will not go for forced redundancies.'
The deal allows Vauxhall to retain a trained workforce throughout the economic downturn, while giving workers a measure of job security.
Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port plant has been chosen to build the nextgeneration Astra, and needs to keep its workforce intact as production picks up when the economy begins to recover.
But already it has been forced to shutdown for more than 40 days in total, including an extended break over Christmas.
The car maker has also exhausted its flexible working hours and has been looking for alternatives to laying-off workers which until now it has described as a 'last resort'. Vauxhall last night confirmed that a 'menu' of potential cost-saving measures had been agreed.
Mr Demant also confirmed that he and his team had been talking to Lord Mandelson and other ministers and MPs over their request for credit and loans to see them through the crisis.
But he said: 'There are continuing contacts to Mandelson. We are looking for support in the UK. But we have probably not progressed as far in the UK as in other countries.'
The U.S. government will decide by March 31 whether to bail out General Motors if its restructuring plan is accepted.
Cutting jobs and other costs is now the 'top priority' as firms wake up to the full effects of recession, the CBI will warn today. A survey of financial services organisations found almost half were planning to axe staff in the next three months.
But the business lobby group warned staff are likely to stay with the same employer rather than looking to change jobs, which means fewer vacancies for those made redundant.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1112313/Take-pay-cut-jobs-bosses-tell-Vauxhall-workers.html

Central bankers expect global recovery in 2010
ReutersPublished: January 12, 2009
BASEL, Switzerland: The global economy will recover in 2010 from a sharp slowing this year as official steps to lift growth hit home, senior central bankers said on Monday.
The European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet, who chaired talks here on the world economy, said restoring confidence was crucial as emerging markets join the industrialized world in feeling the impact of the financial crisis.
"The global economy will slow down significantly in 2009 with the industrialized economies having negative figures," he said, summing up the talks at the Bank for International Settlements.
Trichet, who also chairs the Group of 10 central bankers from leading economies, said lower oil prices, extra government spending and central bank steps to boost economies would have a positive impact in the longer term. "That was one of the reasons why we globally have the sentiment that 2010 is the year of the pick-up, a significant pick-up," he said.
Major central banks have slashed interest rates in the last few months and boosted liquidity as the financial market crisis spread and dragged major developed economies, including Japan, the United States and the euro zone, into recession.
The International Monetary Fund predicts global growth this year of just 2.2 percent, down from an estimated 3.7 percent in 2008, and other major institutions have similarly low expectations.
Governments have also raised public spending to support growth, with Britain pledging extra money to help jobs and U.S. President-elect Barack Obama promising to restructure a financial rescue plan to save more families from home foreclosures.
Trichet said central bank and government action so far had helped to avoid a market "meltdown" but markets had not yet fully taken on board all the measures undertaken and confidence was still lacking.
"In the present situation more than ever confidence is of the essence," he said. A "'large part of the slowing down that is been observed comes from the confidence channel. It is important for all authorities to do whatever is appropriate to preserve, to reinforce confidence."
In general, central bankers were still keen to make sure inflation expectations remained solidly anchored, he said.
Trichet made no comment on ECB interest rates before a policy meeting on Thursday, when analysts expect the Governing Council to cut euro zone rates - currently the highest in the Group of 7 - by another 50 basis points to 2.0 percent.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has slashed its rates close to zero, is supplementing cuts with unconventional steps such as buying up assets. But Trichet said there was no talk of central banks taking coordinated steps in this regard.
Officials attending the talks, including the Fed chairman Ben Bernanke and the Bank of Japan governor Masaaki Shirakawa - had no discussion about currency rates, Trichet said.
The January BIS talks were also attended by commercial bank chiefs, as usual for the first meeting of the year, and policymakers from emerging market economies including Brazil, Mexico, India and China.
China's central bank head, Zhou Xiaochuan, said the economy was slowing moderately but the bank was still basing its economic policies on the assumption of 8 percent GDP growth this year.
"It's a moderate slowdown. Certainly we will keep a very good vigilance to prevent a sharp slowdown but up to now I think we can see in comparison with many other countries it is a moderate slowdown," he told reporters at the meetings.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2009/01/12/business/12bis.php

Preventing colds may be as easy as vitamin ZZZ
January 12, 2009 - 7:48pm
By CARLA K. JOHNSON
CHICAGO (AP) - Fluff up the pillows and pull up the covers. Preventing the common cold may be as easy as getting more sleep. Researchers paid healthy adults $800 to have cold viruses sprayed up their noses, then wait five days in a hotel to see if they got sick. Habitual eight-hour sleepers were much less likely to get sick than those who slept less than seven hours or slept fitfully.
"The longer you sleep, the better off you are, the less susceptible you are to colds," said lead author Sheldon Cohen, who studies the effects of stress on health at Pittsburgh's Carnegie Mellon University.
Prior research has suggested that sleep boosts the immune system at the cell level. This is the first study to show small sleep disturbances increasing the risk of getting sick, said Dr. Michael Irwin, who researches immune response at the University of California, Los Angeles, and was not involved in the study.
"The message is to maintain regular sleep habits because those are really critical for health," Irwin said.
During cold season, staying out of range of sneezing relatives and co-workers may be impossible. The study, appearing Monday in the Archives of Internal Medicine, mimicked those conditions by exposing participants to a common cold virus _ rhinovirus _ and most became infected with it.
But not everyone suffered cold symptoms.
The people who slept less than seven hours a night in the weeks before they were exposed to the virus were three times more likely to catch a cold than those who slept eight hours or more.
To find willing cold victims, researchers placed ads and recruited 78 men and 75 women, all healthy and willing to go one-on-one against the virus. They ranged in age from 21 to 55.
First, their sleep habits were recorded for two weeks. Every evening, researchers interviewed them by phone about their sleep the night before. Subjects were asked what time they went to bed, what time they got up, how much time they spent awake during the night and if they felt rested in the morning.
Then they checked into a hotel where the virus was squirted up their noses. After five days, the virus had done its work, infecting 135 of the 153 volunteers. But only 54 people got sick.
Researchers measured their runny noses by weighing their used tissues. They tested for congestion by squirting dye in the subjects' noses to see how long it took to get to the back of their throats.
Sleeping fitfully also was tied to greater risk of catching a cold. Those who tossed and turned more than 8 percent of their time in bed were five times more likely to get sick than those who were sleepless only 2 percent of the time.
Surprisingly, feeling rested was not linked to staying well. Cohen said he's not sure why that is, other than feeling rested is more subjective than recalling bedtime and wake-up time.
The researchers took into account other factors that make people more susceptible such as stress, smoking and drinking, and lack of exercise, and they still saw a connection between sleep and resisting a cold.
Cold symptoms like congestion and sore throat are caused by the body's fight against a virus, rather than the virus itself, Cohen said. People whose bodies make the perfect amount of infection-fighting proteins called cytokines will not even know they are fighting a virus. But if their bodies make too many, they feel sick.
Sleep may fine-tune the body's immune response, Cohen said, helping regulate the perfect response.
Prior research has tied lack of sleep to greater risk of weight gain, heart disease, high blood pressure, stroke and diabetes.
Dr. Daniel Buysse, a sleep researcher at the University of Pittsburgh, said spending too much time in bed can lead to more interrupted sleep, which in this study "seems to be even worse than short sleep" for increasing the risk of catching a cold.
If it takes a long time to fall asleep or if you are restless during the night, "you would probably benefit from spending a little LESS time in bed," Buysse said in an e-mail. "If you fall asleep instantly, have no wakefulness during the night, and are sleepy during the day, you would probably benefit from spending a little MORE time in bed."
Buysse was not directly involved in the research, although he commented on an early draft of the study. The study was funded by grants from the National Institutes of Health and the MacArthur Foundation.
Harvard sleep researcher Sat Bir Khalsa said people do not need to turn to prescription sleep aids to improve their sleep. Setting a regular bedtime, moving computers and televisions out of the bedroom and, when restless, getting out of bed for a while and doing something soothing can help. His research focuses on treating insomnia with yoga.
As preventive measures, vitamin C and herbal supplements have not lived up to their reputation in rigorous studies. Cohen said research has shown people who get more exercise, drink moderately and have lower stress also get fewer colds.
On the Net:
Archives: http://www.archinternmed.com
http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1571289

Thai Cabinet approves $3.3 bln stimulus plan
January 13, 2009 - 9:57am
By AMBIKA AHUJA
Associated Press Writer
BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) - Thailand's Cabinet approved a 115 billion baht ($3.3 billion) economic stimulus package Tuesday that it hopes will shore up an economy battered by the global downturn and recent political turmoil.
Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva said the money will be allocated to help the poor deal with the economic downturn and to rejuvenate a tourism industry battered by months of political unrest. Anti-government protests culminated with a weeklong seizure of Bangkok's airports in November, stranding more than 300,000 travelers.
"The measures are based on the idea of reviving the economy directly, that is, adding money in people's pockets," Abhisit told reporters after a weekly Cabinet meeting. "Giving money directly to people is the most effective way. It will lead to more spending that will help industrial, agricultural and business sectors."
The stimulus package was approved in principle and will be officially approved by the Cabinet next week, Abhisit said. The measures will then be submitted to Parliament on Jan. 28.
hThe funds will be used to support social security, free education programs, create jobs and provide low-interest loans to farmers.
The government will also extend a package of economic stimulus measures implemented by the previous government by another six months. These include lower water and electricity charges, free rides on some of Bangkok's public buses and free third-class train rides nationwide.
A portion of the funds will be doled out in a one-off allowance of 2,000 baht ($57) to several millions of low-income employees and government officials, said Labor Minister Phaithoon Kaeothong. Only those who earn less than 14,000 baht ($400) a month will qualify.
Abhisit had earlier said his government would retain populist policies _ including cheap credit and health care _ implemented under exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who has loomed over Thai politics even after being ousted by a military coup in 2006.
Abhisit, 44, was voted to be the new prime minister last month after a court dissolved the party leading the previous government.
A Cabinet statement said the stimulus package will also be used to help promote the country's battered tourism industry.
The Bank of Thailand has estimated the country would lose 290 billion baht ($8.3 billion) as a result of the weeklong blockade of Bangkok's two main airports by protesters who called for the ouster of the previous government packed with Thaksin's allies. It said the shutdown of the airports would deter 3.4 million tourists from visiting the country.
Southeast Asia's second-largest economy is likely to grow between 0.5 percent and 2.5 percent in 2009 _ a sharp slowdown from last year _ because of declining exports and weak domestic demand, the central bank said earlier this month.
The central bank is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.
http://wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1572180