Eeyore's News and View

Turkey holds suspicious Iran-Venezuela shipment
NKARA, Turkey – Turkey was holding a suspicious shipment bound for Venezuela from Iran because it contained lab equipment capable of producing explosives, a customs official said Tuesday.
Suleyman Tosun, a customs official at the Mediterranean port of Mersin, said military experts were asked to examine the material, which was seized last month, and decide whether to let the shipment to go to Venezuela.
Authorities detected the equipment during a search of 22 containers labeled "tractor parts," Tosun said. They were brought to Mersin by trucks from neighboring Iran, he said. Turkey's Interior Ministry said an investigation was under way.
"Experts from Turkey's Atomic Institute determined there were no traces of radioactive material, but said the equipment was enough to set up an explosives lab," Tosun said. "We have asked the military to send experts to determine whether to resume the shipment."
Some barrels, labeled with "danger" signs, contained chemicals. Tosun said details were still unclear.
An Iranian embassy official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, said the shipment contained "nothing important."
Iran and Venezuela operate various joint ventures in Venezuela, including plants to assemble tractors and cars. The two countries also have agreed to team up on petrochemical projects.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090106/ap_on_re_eu/eu_turkey_iran_venezuela

Terrorists could use 'insect-based' biological weapon
Terrorists would find it "relatively easy" to launch a devastating attack using swarms of insects to spread a deadly disease, an academic has warned.
Jeffrey Lockwood, professor of entomology at Wyoming University and author of Six-legged Soldiers: Using Insects as Weapons of War, said such Rift Valley Fever or other diseases could be transported into a country by a terrorist with a suitcase.
He told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I think a small terrorist cell could very easily develop an insect-based weapon."
He said it would "probably be much easier" than developing a nuclear or chemical weapon, arguing: "The raw material is in the back yard."
He continued: "It would be a relatively easy and simple process.
"A few hundred dollars and a plane ticket and you could have a pretty good stab at it."
Governments, he advised, needed to have robust "pest management infrastructure that's able to absorb and respond to an introduction" of infected insects, he said.
Trying to stop everything coming in at the border would not work, he said.
Rift Valley Fever is an east African disease which "can cause severe disease in both animals and humans, leading to high rates of disease and death" according to the World Health Organisation.
However, WHO says that "the vast majority of human infections result from direct or indirect contact with the blood or organs of infected animals."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/wildlife/4123782/Terrorists-could-use-insect-based-biological-weapon.html

China confirms woman died of bird flu in Beijing
BEIJING/HONGKONG (Reuters) - A 19-year-old woman has died of the H5N1 bird flu virus in Beijing after coming into contact with poultry, health authorities in Beijing and Hong Kong said on Tuesday.
This human H5N1 case would be China's first in almost a year. Experts said while the case was not unexpected as the virus is more active during the cooler months between October and March, it points to holes in surveillance of the virus in poultry.
With the world's biggest poultry population and hundreds of millions of farmers raising birds in their backyards, China is seen as crucial in the global fight against bird flu.
"The woman fell ill on December 24, was hospitalized on December 27 and died on Monday (at) 7.20 am," the Beijing Municipal Bureau said in a faxed statement.
Hong Kong's Center for Health Protection said the woman had had contact with poultry before falling ill.
China's official Xinhua News Agency earlier reported that the woman from eastern Fujian province had bought nine ducks at a market in Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, and then gutted the birds.
She gave three ducks to her father, uncle and a friend and kept the other six ducks, the agency reported.
It added that 116 people, including the patient's 14 family members and neighbor and 102 medical workers, had been in close contact with the patient.
"In many parts of the world, human H5N1 cases are due to contact with infected poultry. A human case would confirm that there is poultry infection somewhere in the vicinity," said a virologist in Hong Kong who declined to be identified.
"It means that there are some leaks in surveillance in the poultry side (in China)," he said.
"Of course, we are approaching Chinese New Year and there is an increase in production, movement in poultry. That's why there's an increase in poultry infection."
The H5N1 remains largely a disease among birds but experts fear it could change into a form that is easily transmitted from person to person, and spark a pandemic that can kill millions of people worldwide.
Beijing has reported the case to the World Health Organization and health authorities in Hong Kong and Macau, and convened an emergency meeting to handle the bird flu case.
The WHO in Beijing said it had offered technical assistance.
Since the H5N1 virus resurfaced in Asia in 2003, it has infected 391 people, killing 247 of them, according to WHO figures released in mid-December.
The last human H5N1 death in China was in February last year when a 44-year-old woman died in the southern Guangdong province.
At least 20 people have died of bird flu in China to date.
In neighboring Vietnam, a five-year-old has been infected with bird flu, the first human case reported in the country this year, Vietnam's state-run television said on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNew ... 22&sp=true
and an update http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE50641D20090107?feedType=RSS&feedName=healthNews

Looming Collapse of Russia, China and more …by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. 01-05-09
I hope you’ve had a great start to your New Year!
At the same time, however, I trust you are not counting on the latest holiday rally in the stock market — or the most recent incarnation of the Obama rescue package — to transform 2009 into a positive year for the economy.
The reasons: In addition to the massive wealth destruction I told you about two weeks ago and the continuing debt collapse I’ve been warning you about for many months now, the overseas engines of global growth are also collapsing.
This does not negate my long-term view that certain overseas economies offer great future opportunities. But it does represent a major short-term threat to U.S. investors, U.S. companies and the U.S. economy as a whole.
The undeniable reality: The debt crisis that first appeared in the U.S. subprime mortgage market … then precipitated a Wall Street meltdown … and has now driven the American economy into its sharpest decline since the Great Depression … has now spread to the entire world.
It is driving the economies of Western Europe and Japan into an unprecedented tailspin. It threatens the economic — and potentially political — stability of Russia, China and several emerging market nations. And it’s setting the stage for a global depression of epic dimensions.
Here are some of the most vulnerable major economies …
Russia Smashed by Oil Price Collapse
Never in modern history has the success or failure of a major emerging economy been so dependent on one single commodity! And never before has that commodity fallen so far and so fast as Russian crude oil!
Russia does have other resource and revenue sources. But in just the past six months, Urals crude, Russia’s primary export blend, has plunged from a high of nearly $141 per barrel to a low of a meager $32.34 — a 77% crash that’s pounded Russian stocks like a sledgehammer and sliced through the Russian economy like a serrated sickle.
The big dilemma: To balance its federal budget, Russia must get a minimum of $70 per barrel for its crude oil. But at $32 and change, it’s getting less than HALF that amount. The entire country is losing money hand over fist.
No wonder Russia’s stock market has plunged 72%, forcing 25 separate stock exchange shutdowns!
Transneft, the Russian oil transporter, is down from $2,025 in January 2008 to a recent low of $270. Gazprom, the natural gas monopoly, has lost more than two-thirds of its market capitalization since May. Meanwhile, Lukoil fell from a May peak of $113 to a recent low of $32.
Russia’s oil-driven real estate bubble is also collapsing. That’s why Russian construction and real estate giant Sistema-Hals lost more than 94% of its value last year alone … why PIK Group, another major construction giant, collapsed by 96% … and why the entire RCP Shares Index of Russian developers has sunk 92% since its record high in June 2007.
Ford, Renault and Volkswagen are halting production at Russian assembly lines. Unemployment is likely to surge to 10% and beyond. Massive amounts of foreign capital are fleeing the country.
In a desperate attempt to stem the tide, the Russian government has devalued the ruble 11 times since November, and thrown a quarter of its foreign currency reserves at the raging debt crisis. But it’s still not enough. Russia’s primary source of revenues — energy exports — is in shambles; and unless crude oil prices could somehow DOUBLE in a big hurry, Russia’s economic and financial decline cannot end.
Standard & Poor’s has cut Russia’s long-term debt rating for the first time in nine years, citing dangerous outflows and a “rapid depletion” of currency reserves. And more downgrades are in the offing. Even a major debt default is not unthinkable.
The biggest danger: Political upheaval and social unrest.
Even before this crisis, Russia’s middle class earned less than $500 per month. Now, with the devastating plunge in oil revenues already in place, those numbers are falling to even lower levels. For a nation with a cost of living that rivals that of the U.S., Western Europe and Japan, the last thing the Russian people needed was a depression. Yet that’s exactly what they’re getting.
I visited Russia last year before the collapse in oil prices. I spoke to a variety of professionals and people on the street. And I stayed with friends who work in government jobs.
From everything I had read, I had anticipated signs of greater prosperity. Instead, I was surprised to see how little average citizens had benefited from the recent years of rapid economic growth.
Yes, they have more access to a wider variety of goods that were scarce during the Soviet era. But most professionals — such as teachers, doctors, nurses and government employees — are still living on the edge of poverty.
Equally surprising is the popular disgust and disdain for the government. Public opinion surveys and press reports may indicate broad support for the Kremlin’s foreign policy, and they seem to be accurate. But support for domestic policies is another matter entirely.
My view: Any major disappointment with respect to pocketbook issues could lead to major political changes, the outcome of which is largely unpredictable.
China Far More Vulnerable Than Expected
China’s extraordinary expansion of the past decade fueled booms in global trade, commodities and emerging markets. It was a major growth engine that turbo-charged Australia, Brazil, Southeast Asia and even Japan.
Now, however, that engine is grinding to a screeching halt. Indeed, when historians look back to major pivot points of this global economic crisis, they will undoubtedly point to the abrupt end of China’s boom.
Many of us assumed that because China’s economy was growing so quickly — at a breakneck pace of 10% or more per year — it could easily afford to slow down by a few percentage points and still be in far better shape than most other economies.
But now I seriously question that theory. Indeed, more often than not, companies, industries and entire nations that enjoy the biggest booms are also vulnerable to some of the biggest busts. Instead of a mere slowdown, as many still seem to expect, China’s economy could suffer a wholesale collapse.
Exports, which still represent two-fifths of the Chinese economy, are already sinking fast. And the domestic economy, much of which depends directly or indirectly on the revenues flowing from exports, is also beginning to sink.
Warning signs are everywhere: Stocks, down 60% just in the last 12 months; imports, down 17.9% in November alone; foreign investments to China, off 36.5% last year.
In response, the government has slashed interest rates and pledged a $582 billion stimulus package. But that’s mere pocket change compared to China’s trillions in vulnerable exports. Moreover, it has done little to help millions of small- and medium-sized businesses which are already shutting down and laying off millions.
A big problem: 45% of the Chinese government bailout is earmarked for the cement and housing industry. Meanwhile, cash-flow problems are sweeping through the entire economy, downing airlines, manufacturers and property companies.
Airlines like China Southern and China Eastern, for example, have been losing money hand over fist. China’s auto sales are plunging. Its shipbuilding industry is in a tailspin. And its real estate market is collapsing.
Next, expect surging unemployment … mass reverse migrations from urban centers to the countryside … spreading popular unrest … and a major challenge to authority. Chinese leaders have already admitted that an economic downturn would test their ability to govern. Now, that downturn is here — and the ultimate test, on the near horizon.
Meanwhile …
India, also heavily dependent on foreign demand for its goods, is suffering its worst export slump in recent memory. Overseas shipments plunged 12.1% in October and another 9.9% in November, forcing companies like Tata Motors, India’s biggest truck maker, and Hyundai Motor to cut output, fire workers and shut down factories.
Brazil, which was growing at a record pace until the third quarter, has suddenly frozen in its tracks. Much of the foreign money it counted on has vanished, leaving acute capital shortages in its wake. Auto sales have gone dead, leaving biggest-ever inventories of unsold cars. Credit, abundantly available just a few months ago, is now gone.
Japan has been slammed by its worst recession since World War II … with stock prices plunging to new 18-year lows … industrial output suffering the largest monthly drop since records were kept … Toyota reporting its first loss in 70 years … layoff victims filling tent parks … and worse.
Everywhere from Argentina and Mexico to Australia, New Zealand and even the once-rich Middle East, the worldwide debt crisis, the bust in commodities and the sharp slowdown in global trade are transforming massive booms into instant recessions.
It’s happening fast and it’s accelerating. Government rescue programs aren’t nearly enough to turn the tide. And it’s another key reason you must approach 2009 with great caution.
Stick with safety. Don’t veer from the course I have laid out for avoiding the dangers. Wait for the truly big price declines ahead before reinvesting!
Good luck and God bless!
Martin
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/looming-collapse-of-russia-china-and-more-29143