Eeyore's News and view

Britain's GDP will decline at fastest pace since the 1940s
By Nikhil Kumar
Saturday, 27 December 2008
The UK economy looks set to contract at its fastest pace since the 1940s next year, according to a report by an independent group of economists.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) expects the UK’s gross domestic product to decline by 2.9 per cent in real terms over the next year, the biggest annual fall since 1946, when the country faced mass de-mobilisation after the Second World War. Business investment – forecast to collapse by more than 15 per cent in 2009 – is pegged to pose the biggest risk to the economy while household expenditure is expected to fall by 1.8 per cent in the New Year.
CEBR’s managing director, Mark Pragnell, said his team “had to get the history books to find a year with as a large a fall in national output as we expect for 2009.”
“The government’s statisticians publish a consistent series of gross domestic product estimates back only to 1948. The worst year on these records was 1980, where output was 2.1 per cent lower than the preceding year.”
The grim forecasts come less than a week after the Office for National Statistics said gross domestic product from July to September was down 0.6 per cent compared to the previous quarter. The contraction – the fastest rate of decline since the recessionary times of the early nineteen nineties – trumped earlier expectations of a 0.5 per cent drop.
“It is easy to see that things could be even worse,” CEBR economist Ben Read said,
“Despite the public declarations by the government that the banks ought to be lending more it is clear that the primary concern of many of our largest banks is to shore up their balance sheets and, for those on the end of the government bail-outs, to pay back their Treasury paymasters.”
“With few incentives for banks to behave otherwise, credit availability to businesses may become even worse during 2009.”

Economy 'on knife-edge' as Japan faces deflation fear
Japan’s economy — the second-largest in the world and a barometer of global consumer demand — was described yesterday as being “on a knife-edge” amid fears that it might plum- met into deflation within months.
The warnings, which come from senior private sector economists and from the Japanese Government, follow a Boxing Day release of dismal industrial, consumer and employment data.
Within hours of passing a record 88 trillion yen (£660 billion) budget, senior government sources told The Times that Japan would “inevitably” be forced to adopt new measures to halt the meltdown. The country’s spiraling economic crisis arises primarily from the sudden halt in American consumption and the acute slowdown in the flow of components and goods throughout Asia. The strong yen has savaged the competitiveness of Japanese goods such as cars and electronics at a critical moment.
A record-breaking fall in industrial output figures for November showed that the country’s huge manufacturing economy is collapsing far more rapidly and painfully than even the bleakest market forecasts believed possible. The 8.1 per cent month-on-month slide — a dramatic collapse from the 3.1 per cent decline logged in October, stunned many economists. Richard Jerram, of Macquarie Securities, said that the pace of collapse had almost gone beyond the point of sensible analysis.
Employment is on track to fall rapidly as companies retrench at a pace not seen even during the worst days of Japan’s “lost decade”. Economists at Nomura said that even though the employment figures suggested a measure of stability, deterioration is “unavoidable” as companies retract job offers and lay off temporary workers.
The rate of consumer price growth dropped at its fastest pace since 1981: as commodity and energy prices nosedive on global markets, food is now the only component of the Japanese consumer price index that is still in positive territory.
Kyohei Morita, senior economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo, yesterday brought forward to May his forecast of when Japan will once again confront deflation — a rare economic malaise that crippled the nation during the late 1990s.
He pointed to the growing number of retailers — from luxury goods boutiques to family restaurants — which are passing the benefits of the strengthening yen on to customers in “strong yen sales”. These have in turn pushed consumer prices lower more quickly than anyone predicted.
Reflecting growing panic within the Japanese Government, and the darkening prospects for immediate recovery, Kaoru Yosano, the Economy and Fiscal Policy Minister, said that “both Japan and the world will be on knife’s edge for some time.”

AMERICAN FORK, Utah (AP) - The long, narrow room in Kenneth Moravec's basement looks like a food bank.
Floor-to-ceiling shelves are lined with canned fruits and vegetables, dried or powdered herbs, spices and drinks, along with drums of rice, pasta, wheat and other grains. Each is labeled with its contents and the date of purchase or when it was home-canned, usually right out of Moravec's garden.
"Right now I have about a six-year supply of food," said Moravec, whose e-mail tag line reads, "If you fail to prepare, you prepare to fail."
Moravec has taken to heart a decades-old directive from leaders of his Mormon faith that members should prepare for hard times or natural disasters by stockpiling up to a year's worth of food. A church Web site, providentliving.org, provides a guide for members.
Moravec's own preparedness philosophy has been cultivated through church teachings and hard personal experiences, including job losses and natural disasters. As a child, he said his family weathered an East Coast hurricane and then temporarily lived off their cache of stored food. And in 1989, Moravec said, he was stranded for three days on a section of the Oakland, Calif., Bay Bridge after a 7.0 earthquake. He ate from a 72-hour emergency kit stashed inside his pickup truck.
"I've been in and out of work a lot in my life, but I've always been able to feed my family because of food storage," he said.
Concern for others propelled Moravec to share what he knows. For two decades, he's taught preparedness classes nationwide to everyone from Boy Scouts to business executives and church women.
Once a year Moravec drops in on neighbors, regardless of faith, for a preparedness check-up.
"The question is: If you had to live on your food storage and couldn't go to Albertsons every day, how long could you live," he said. "Some people look at me like I'm nuts, but most people understand where I'm coming from."
Since 1985, Moravec has also placed group orders order for bulk quantities of grains, dried herbs, potato flakes and other staples. Once or twice a year, a semitrailer pulls onto Moravec's street and unloads enough food to fill his garage.
Moravec's fellow Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints congregants seem to have been converted. By his own accounting, Moravec said about 11 percent of families have socked away a year's worth of food. Another 10 percent have about six months of food saved and another 15 percent have a three-month supply, he said.
Moravec's neighbor, Cheri Christensen, said her family recently used a small, unexpected windfall to increase their food storage to a one-year supply. Christensen buys grains and pasta in bulk and cans fruits, vegetables and even butter.
"After we saw what happened in Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana ... those people were in dire straights. Take one look at that and you know you have to take care of yourself," Christensen said.
In the event a real disaster, Moravec doubts his six-year stash will last more than a few months. He expects to feed not only his family, but the friends and neighbors who didn't or couldn't prepare.
"I've been blessed very well to have this kind of food storage," said Moravec. "But I don't think I've been blessed for me, it's for me to share. It's for the single mom over there, or the widow around the corner. I see that as part of my responsibility."
On the Net:
www.providentliving.org
http://www.kutv.com/content/news/local/story/American-Fork-man-is-food-storage-fanatic/jfqZetC6O06CFBbbE_UldQ.cspx?rss=991

Internet sites could be given 'cinema-style age ratings', Culture Secretary says
Internet sites could be given cinema-style age ratings as part of a Government crackdown on offensive and harmful online activity to be launched in the New Year, the Culture Secretary says.
In an interview with The Daily Telegraph, Andy Burnham says he believes that new standards of decency need to be applied to the web. He is planning to negotiate with Barack Obama’s incoming American administration to draw up new international rules for English language websites.
The Cabinet minister describes the internet as “quite a dangerous place” and says he wants internet-service providers (ISPs) to offer parents “child-safe” web services.
Giving film-style ratings to individual websites is one of the options being considered, he confirms. When asked directly whether age ratings could be introduced, Mr Burnham replies: “Yes, that would be an option. This is an area that is really now coming into full focus.”
ISPs, such as BT, Tiscali, AOL or Sky could also be forced to offer internet services where the only websites accessible are those deemed suitable for children.
Mr Burnham also uses the interview to indicate that he will allocate money raised from the BBC’s commercial activities to fund other public-service broadcasting such as Channel Four. He effectively rules out sharing the BBC licence fee between broadcasters as others have recommended.
His plans to rein in the internet, and censor some websites, are likely to trigger a major row with online advocates who ferociously guard the freedom of the world wide web.
However, Mr Burnham said: “If you look back at the people who created the internet they talked very deliberately about creating a space that Governments couldn’t reach. I think we are having to revisit that stuff seriously now. It’s true across the board in terms of content, harmful content, and copyright. Libel is [also] an emerging issue.
“There is content that should just not be available to be viewed. That is my view. Absolutely categorical. This is not a campaign against free speech, far from it; it is simply there is a wider public interest at stake when it involves harm to other people. We have got to get better at defining where the public interest lies and being clear about it.”
Mr Burnham reveals that he is currently considering a range of new safeguards. Initially, as with copyright violations, these could be policed by internet providers. However, new laws may be threatened if the initial approach is not successful.
“I think there is definitely a case for clearer standards online,” he said. “More ability for parents to understand if their child is on a site, what standards it is operating to. What are the protections that are in place?”
He points to the success of the 9pm television watershed at protecting children. The minister also backs a new age classification system on video games to stop children buying certain products.
Mr Burnham, himself a parent of three young children, says his goal is for internet providers to offer “child-safe” web services.
“It worries me - like anybody with children,” he says. “Leaving your child for two hours completely unregulated on the internet is not something you can do. This isn’t about turning the clock back. The internet has been empowering and democratising in many ways but we haven’t yet got the stakes in the ground to help people navigate their way safely around…what can be a very, very complex and quite dangerous world.”
Mr Burnham also wants new industry-wide “take down times”. This means that if websites such as YouTube or Facebook are alerted to offensive or harmful content they will have to remove it within a specified time once it is brought to their attention.
He also says that the Government is considering changing libel laws to give people access to cheap low-cost legal recourse if they are defamed online. The legal proposals are being drawn up by the Ministry of Justice.
Mr Burnham admits that his plans may be interpreted by some as “heavy-handed” but says the new standards drive is “utterly crucial”. Mr Burnham also believes that the inauguration of Barack Obama, the President-Elect, presents an opportunity to implement the major changes necessary for the web.
“The change of administration is a big moment. We have got a real opportunity to make common cause,” he says. “The more we seek international solutions to this stuff – the UK and the US working together – the more that an international norm will set an industry norm.”
The Culture Secretary is spending the Christmas holidays at his constituency in Lancashire but is planning to take major decisions on the future of public-service broadcasting in the New Year. Channel Four is facing a £150m shortfall in its finances and is calling for extra Government help. ITV is also growing increasingly alarmed about the financial implications of meeting the public-service commitments of its licenses.
Mr Burnham says that he is prepared to offer further public assistance to broadcasters other than the BBC. However, he indicates that he does not favour “top-slicing” the licence fee. Instead, he may share the profits of the BBC Worldwide, which sells the rights to programmes such as Strictly Come Dancing to foreign broadcasters.
“I feel it is important to sustain quality content beyond the BBC,” he said. “The real priorities I have got in my mind are regional news, quality children’s content and original British children’s content, current affairs documentaries – that’s important. The thing now is to be absolutely clear on what the public wants to see beyond the BBC.
“Top-slicing the licence fee is an option that is going to have to remain on the table. I have to say it is not the option that I instinctively reach for first. I think there are other avenues to be explored.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/technology/technologynews/3965051/Internet-sites-could-be-given-cinema-style-age-ratings-Culture-Secretary-says.html

Mild earthquake shakes Lancaster County
By Steve Esack | Of The Morning Call
1:07 AM EST, December 27, 2008
A minor earthquake rattled Lancaster County early Saturday morning, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
The 3.3 magnitude quake hit at 12:04 a.m., according to Dale Grant, a geophysicist at the USGS's 24-hour earthquake monitoring office in Golden, Colo.
"We consider this a very minor event, something local," Grant said.
Tell that to people of Lancaster County.
More than 1,000 residents called the county 911 center after feeling the tremors, according to the emergency dispatch center. No injuries were reported as of 12:30 a.m.
The USGS Web site shows the quake was centered in the Salunga-Landisville area. It was felt in Philadelphia and Baltimore, too.
Grant said his office received calls from Lancaster County emergency dispatch and Three Mile Island Nuclear Facility.
"Three Mile Island always calls us when something is happening," Grant said. "They see what is happening on their seismographs."
George Warner, a resident of Lititz in north Lancaster County, said he felt and heard two loud booms, about a second apart.
"It was a loud boom and I heard our China cabinet shake," he said in a phone interview. "Then there was a second boom and I looked around the house to see if there was something that was the source. My guess was it was an earthquake. There was no damage."
The earthquake was the seventh minor one to hit the state since early October, according to USGS data. The tremors were centered around a 23-mile radius of Saturday morning's quake. They occurred: Oct. 5, 19, 20 and 23.
http://www.mcall.com/news/local/all-quake1227,0,3959584.story

Fla. woman claims 'Merry Christmas' got her fired
PENSACOLA, Fla. – A Christian woman claims she was fired from her job because she greeted callers with "Merry Christmas," but the vacation rental company says it's no Scrooge and the woman is just a disgruntled employee.
Tonia Thomas, 35, said she refused to say "Happy Holidays" and was fired, even after offering to use the company's non-holiday greeting. The Panama City woman filed a federal complaint that accuses the company of religious discrimination. She is seeking compensation for lost wages.
"I hold my core Christian values to a high standard and I absolutely refuse to give in on the basis of values. All I wanted was to be able to say 'Merry Christmas' or to acknowledge no holidays," she said Tuesday. "As a Christian, I don't recognize any other holidays."
Thomas said she is Baptist.
Her former employer, Counts-Oakes Resorts Properties Inc., said she wasn't fired for saying "Merry Christmas," but would not elaborate.
"We are a Christian company and we celebrate Christmas," said Andy Phillips, the company's president. Thomas is "a disgruntled employee," presenting a one-sided version of what happened when she was fired Dec. 10, Phillips said.
Liberty Counsel, an Orlando-based legal group that advocates for people discriminated against because of their religion, is representing Thomas before the federal Equal Opportunity Employment Commission. Their complaint also accuses the company of harassing and taunting Thomas after she was fired by calling the police to watch her pack her belongs and leave.
Thomas could have hard time winning the case, said G. Thomas Harper, a Jacksonville-based labor attorney who writes a newsletter on Florida employment law.
"I wouldn't think an employee has the right to insist (on saying Merry Christmas) unless that really is a tenet of their faith. She would have to make a strong case that was part of her beliefs, if not, it becomes insubordination," he said.
Thomas has found another job, but she makes less than the $10.50 an hour she earned with the rental company. She said the trauma of being fired and the pay cut has made for a tough holiday season for herself, her husband and their 6-year-old son.
Harper said when it comes to holiday greetings, the smartest choice might be ignoring the season.
"The best option is just not to say anything," he said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081226/ap_on_re_us/happy_holidays_firing