Monday, October 27, 2008

Eeyore's News and Views

Today as it seems for the past few months the blog will be devoted to the Economy and World economies. Is amazing how people are dumbfounded by what is going on. It has little to do with market forces and even supply and demand. It has to do with greed and not just the desire to make money, but greed to the point of destroying what we have to make money. I could understand a Country wanting to do that to the US, after all we did it to the Soviets, by driving them into bankruptcy, a little different but it won the war that never had to be fought. And i could completely understand another Country wanting to do that at least in principle to us. We have a bad name around the World, part of me says tuff, but part of me on the other hand says we need better PR. Do you have a clue what we give away to these other Countries in gifts (bribes) every year so they kill each other? It is a lot. If they ruin us and then where will their handouts come from? People sometimes are willing to cut off their nose to spite their face.

Here are a few more articles chronicling the downfall of civilized man. The first article will be one about another bank failing (16th this year, so far). Then some world economy articles and then ours and insights about why things are going the way they are. Gold and other precious metals should be going through the roof but they are not. Inflation is rampant, so they should raise but they are not, so it must be some type of manipulation.

Failed Bank Information Information for Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA
On October 24, 2008, Alpha Bank & Trust, Alpharetta, GA was closed by the Georgia Department of Banking and Finance and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.

The FDIC has assembled useful information regarding your relationship with this institution. Besides a checking account, you may have Certificates of Deposit, a car loan, a business checking account, a commercial loan, a Social Security direct deposit, and other relationships with the institution. The FDIC has compiled the following information which should answer many of your questions.

The FDIC has issued a press release (PR-106-2008) about the institution's closure. If you represent a media outlet and would like information about the closure, please contact David Barr at 703-622-4790 or Andrew Gray at 202-494-1049. (you can get the rest at the link if you want) http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/alpha.html

Tokyo, Seoul Head Asian Market Train Wreck
Asian markets were massacred Friday, led by a 9.6 percent plunge in the Nikkei, as the global economic slowdown slashed earnings prospects for an array of companies, forcing investors to look to safer government bonds.
The stronger yen has been particularly damaging to the competitiveness of Japanese exporters as it curbs their overseas profits when they are brought home and erodes the competitiveness of their products. A handful of companies that have expressed positive outlooks have not been able to turn investor sentiment around to focusing on value rather than on the uncertainty of economic factors.

The yen [$$EURJPY 119.01 -6.99 (-5.55%) ] climbed against the euro and other high-yielding currencies on rising risk aversion, hitting a 13-year high against the U.S. dollar [JPY-TN 94.27 -3.02 (-3.1%) ]. Oil prices [US@CL.1 64.15 -3.69 (-5.44%) ] gained on expectations OPEC would agree to cut output in an emergency meeting in Vienna, with Iran suggesting that it lower production by 2 million barrels a day. Crude futures are currently trading above $68 a barrel.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Average [JP;N225 7649.08 -811.9004 (-9.6%) ] plunged 9.6 percent to hit a 5-½ year closing low, having lost 50 percent this year, with exporters hit by the double punch of a Sony [SNE 19.82 -1.64 (-7.64%) ] profit warning and a sharply higher yen. Sony plunged more than 14 percent after the company halved its full-year profit forecast by 57 percent, to far below market estimates in its second downward revision this year, blaming a firmer yen and slowing demand for cameras and flat TVs.

China Traders

Seoul shares plummeted 10.6 percent, with the benchmark Kospi posting its biggest weekly loss since it started running in 1983, as a bleak economic outlook panicked investors into dumping shares. The Kospi ended down 111 points to close
at 938.75 points, its lowest finish since May 2005. The loss on the week run up to more than 20 percent, outstripping the previous record weekly fall seen in the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis. Shares in Samsung Electronics plunged 13.8 percent to their lowest close since Dec. 2004. A bearish outlook with third quarter results from the world No.1 memory chip and LCD screen maker further spooked already panicky investors.

Australian shares fell 2.6 percent to close at four-year lows, joining a rout across Asian equity markets on worries that a likely global recession would slash company earnings. The market quickly reversed an initial 1.1 percent gain as banking stocks slid and leading miners extended the week's steep falls on soft commodities prices. Shares in fund manager Perpetual slumped 6.8 percent after suspending redemptions in several of its funds, along with several other investment firms, to halt an exodus of cash into local banks covered by a government deposit guarantee. Axa Asia Pacific, which also halted redemptions on an income fund, saw its shares fall 8 percent.

Hong Kong shares slid 8.3 percent to a four-year low on pessimism over corporate earnings amid the global economic slowdown, with HSBC and Standard Chartered slammed on rising bad debts in Asia. The Hang Seng Index, which slipped below 13,000 for the first time since 2004, will end the week nearly 10 percent lower while having shed close to 53 percent so far this year. Shares of HSBC plunged to a five-year low after the U.S. investment bank cut its target price amid a negative outlook for emerging markets growth.

Singapore's Straits Times Index extended losses to fall 8.7 percent to a five-year low, as
regional markets slid and after mid-session data showed further weakness in the property sector. The country's top two property developers CapitaLand and City Developments both fell over 5 percent, after government data showed third quarter home prices fell a bigger-than-expected 2.4 percent from the previous quarter.

China's Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9 percent, led by bank and property shares, but the market was far more resilient than its Hong Kong counterpart, sending the A-H share premium to a seven month high. Bank shares fell for a second day, on fears of slowing profit growth and rising bad loans, while property shares succumbed to profit-taking after gains the previous day spurred by the announcement of government measures to bolster the sector.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27346802

Other Asian related articles i will just place links so you can read if you want or not

Nikkei Sheds 9.6% to Close Below 8,000 as Yen Gains http://www.cnbc.com/id/27353701
Sony, Samsung Hit as Crisis Takes Toll on Economy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/27355282
I hope you understand the ramifications of this Sony and Samsung thing. There industry should be booming, because of the digital TV switch over, this Christmas shopping season they should have made a killing. But the don't have any orders. Think about it.

World share rout on growing fears of deep and protracted global recession
• FTSE 100 closes down 5%
• Wall Street down almost 500 points in opening minutes
• Heavy losses in rest of Europe and Asia

Shares on Wall Street and London plunged today as world stockmarkets suffered another rout amid growing fears of a deep and protracted global recession.

The Dow Jones fell by nearly 300 points this afternoon, with banks, energy companies, tech firms and airlines all seeing double digit percentage falls in a chaotic opening few minutes of trading.

"We are getting used to wild swings in the markets, but today's moves verge on the bizarre," said Julian Jessop, the chief international economist at Capital Economics, referring to steep falls across European stock markets.

In the City, almost £50bn was wiped off the value of Britain's biggest companies as the FTSE suffered another steep drop after the UK economy suffered a shock decline.

The FTSE 100 closed down 5%, losing 204 points to finish at 3883.

There were also heavy losses in Europe as Germany's Dax index fell by 5.4% Germany and France's CAC40 closed down 3.9%.

Stockmarket jitters in Europe spread to trading in Dow Jones futures, which had to be suspended several times because of the weight of heavy selling before Wall Street opened.

By 2.45pm, the Dow had dropped to 8288, a 400-point fall that one market commentator described as "beyond volatile", although the index clawed back some of its losses by 5pm and was down by 282 points.

In London, traders dumped shares when the market opened and continued selling as the bad news kept coming. At one stage, the FTSE 100 had tumbled by more than 9%, or 372 points, to 3715 - its lowest point in the current crisis, before it staged a late recovery.

"I sense we've moved beyond the credit crisis. There's a recognition of the damage inflicted on the global economy, that is the recession, by the credit crisis," said Mike Lenhoff, at stockbroker Brewin Dolphin. "It's not just limited to the developed world. You can run but you can't hide anywhere."

The mood was not helped by further weakening of the pound, which slumped to a five and a half-year low against the dollar after the Office for National Statistics reported that UK GDP shrank by 0.5% in the third quarter.

Rumours swept the City that General Motors might go bust, or that America might suspend trading on Wall Street for a week, although it was not clear how seriously these were being treated.

As with Wall Street, banks led the FTSE 100 fallers, with HBOS plunging 17%, and Standard Chartered, HSBC and Barclays all down 10%. The London Stock Exchange, Prudential and Aviva also suffered double-digit declines and not a single share was in positive territory.

Oil cartel Opec added to the gloom by cutting oil production by less than some analysts had hoped.

David Jones, chief market strategist at IG Index, said that traders were alarmed by the 0.5% drop in UK GDP which has crushed any hopes that the worst of the crisis might be over.

"It's as if the banking crisis took everyone's eyes off the real economy, and now the markets have looked back and they don't like what they see," said Jones. "The recession is going to be much worse than expected."

Manus Cranny, spokesman for MF Global Spreads, said that the City was dealing with "a heady cocktail" of speculation, but that the underlying factor is the weakness of the UK economy.

"Today, the Footsie is saying that 'yes, we truly believe that a recession is definitely happening'. Anyone who thinks that this could be a short, shallow recession, because of the use of instruments like interest rates, is seriously deluded," Cranny said.

Panic selling in Asia

The latest global selloff began in Asia overnight, where Japan's Nikkei index fell by almost 10% on the back of a shock profits warning from Sony.

The Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao, issued a grim warning at a meeting of 27 EU member states and 16 Asian nations.

"The global financial crisis has been constantly spreading and worsening, creating a severe shock to global economic growth," he said.

And underlining the scale of the problems facing the UK, Bank of England deputy governor Charlie Bean said it could be the worst financial crisis ever.

"This is a once in a lifetime crisis, and possibly the largest financial crisis of its kind in human history," he said.

The UK economy was widely expected to have shrunk in the third quarter of 2008, but few analysts had predicted such a steep drop. Christian Gattiker, head of research and equity strategy at Julius Baer, who had predicted a 0.5% decline, warned this morning that the financial crisis means the UK faces "quite a bleak outlook".

In Japan the Nikkei plunged by 9.6%, or 811.9 points, to 7649.08. It has now lost half its value in the last 12 months. Tech stocks led the fallers on the back of Sony's admission that the strong yen is damaging its exports and that it is seeing less demand for electronics products. Its shares fell by 14% today.

The yen has risen sharply against other currencies, hitting a 13-year high against the US dollar today.

South Korea saw even greater falls, with the Korean Composite Index down by 10.5%. The sell-off was fuelled by a grim trading statement from Samsung. The electronics giant posting a 44% drop in earnings after prices of its flat-screen displays and memory chips fell.

"We foresee the coming months to be an even more challenging period," warned Chu Woo-sik, a Samsung spokesman.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/24/marketturmoil-creditcrunch1

On a forum i frequent they had a question about where the DOW might end up, i called the bottom at 7,000 points, because at that point imo it will be over they won't be able to recover, at that point the common man will have lost all and will be too much unemployment to recover from, but the guys that wrote the following article are a lot smarter then me. So enjoy, maybe that is the wrong choice of words.

Dow Average May Sink to 5,000, Boockvar Says: Chart of the Day
By Thomas R. Keene and Ken Prewitt
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average may sink as low as 5,000 next year, a 41 percent decline from its current level, according to of Miller Tabak & Co. The market's going to overshoot on the downside,'' Boockvar said in a Bloomberg Radio interview yesterday. ``When that occurs, I'll be a raging bull.''
The CHART OF THE DAY shows 40 years of the Dow average. It last closed below 5,000 on Nov. 20, 1995. A retreat to that level would represent a 65 percent plunge from its all-time high of 14,164.53 set in October 2007.
Earnings estimates are too high and when investors realize that, they will drive the stock market lower, added Boockvar, Miller Tabak's New York-based equity strategist. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index will earn a total of $60 a share in 2009, not more than $90 as some analysts estimate, he said.
http://www.bloomberg.co
m/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=aJdYOvf5POhQ&refer=home

Oil prices plunge, gas prices follow

COLUMBUS, Ohio – Crude prices tumbled Friday and a gallon of gasoline fell below year-ago levels for the first time in 2008, even as OPEC announced a huge production cut in an attempt to halt the declines.

Crude prices have now fallen 56 percent from the highs reached in July, and more than $41 per barrel in just the last month.

Gathered in Vienna, Austria, on Friday to stanch plunging oil prices, OPEC announced it would slash oil production by 1.5 million barrels a day.

Oil prices plunged more than 5 percent.

Investors paid little heed to OPEC attempts to limit supply, instead focusing on global demand as financial markets spiraled downward in Asia, Europe and then the United States.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell $3.69 to settle at $64.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had fallen as low as $62.85 earlier in the day.

The continuing decline in oil prices, even in the face of OPEC production cuts, only cemented bearish sentiment on the oil market.

"All OPEC confirmed for the market is how weak demand is," oil trader and analyst Stephen Schork said.

Supporting that view was a report released Friday by the U.S. Department of Transportation that showed the largest monthly decline in miles driven in 66 years.

In the month after gas prices peaked at $4.11 per gallon, Americans drove 5.6 percent less, or 15 billion fewer miles, in August 2008 compared with August 2007 — the biggest single monthly decline since the data was first collected regularly in 1942.

Americans have drastically altered driving habits, if they are driving at all, amid a severe economic downturn. They have cut discretionary trips, and are carpooling and using public transportation more.

A Labor Department report released this month showed that the number of people who have become unemployed over the last year has risen by 2.2 million to 9.5 million.

From November through August, Americans drove 78.1 billion fewer miles than they did over the same 10-month period a year earlier. The decline is most evident in rural interstate travel where travel is down more than 4 percent compared with a 2 percent decline in urban miles traveled, according to the agency.

The Transportation Department said the biggest decline in driving was in Florida where miles traveled fell by 9.7 percent. Driving in the south Atlantic region, including Florida, fell 7.4 percent, the most of any region in the country.

And the latest weekly report from the U.S. Department of Energy shows that demand for crude has fallen in 38 of the past 42 weeks. U.S. demand is down nearly 10 percent during the past four weeks compared with last year.

That has translated into rapidly declining prices at the pump.

On Friday, for the first time this year, the average retail price of gasoline fell below what it was on the same day in 2007.

A gallon of regular gas fell 4 cents overnight to a new national average of $2.78, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express. That's nearly a dollar less than what was paid last month and 4 cents below gas prices one year ago on Oct. 24.

Gas prices are off from their July peak by about a third compared with the price of crude, which has been more than halved.

There is a lag between the two prices as oil being traded now will not be delivered until next month. That oil must be refined, or turned into gasoline, and then shipped to filling stations.

As for the oil being priced on markets today, oil traders are increasingly gauging future demand on dour financial markets.

Gasoline prices are all but certain to follow that downward trend.

Fred Rozell, retail pricing director at Oil Price Information Service, said prices have room to drop another 20 to 30 cents.

Schork said he could see oil prices falling to $50 a barrel, even though he believes prices will eventually stabilize between $70 and $90.

"We're still in a hangover from the $150 party," he said.

The decline also has come on the back of a strengthening dollar. Investors often buy commodities like crude oil to hedge against a weakening dollar, and sell those investments when the dollar rebounds.

It also means that nations with rapidly growing economies such as China and India will pay more for fuel, which could force them to cut back.

On Friday, there was ample evidence of global economic volatility.

Wall Street joined world stock markets in a pullback Friday, with the Dow Jones industrials dropping 175 points and all the major indexes falling more than 2 percent.

Japan's Nikkei stock average fell a staggering 9.60 percent. In Europe, Germany's benchmark DAX index was down 7.1 percent, France's CAC40 dropped 5.7 percent while Britain's FTSE 100 sank 6.8 percent after the government said its gross domestic product fell 0.5 percent in the third quarter, putting the country on the brink of recession.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 8.32 cents to $1.95 a gallon, while gasoline futures fell 10 cents to $1.47 a gallon. Natural gas for November delivery fell 18 cents to $6.23 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, November Brent crude fell $3.87 to $62.05 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081024/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_prices

Here is part of an article about Gold
Gold briefly drops to 21-month low as stocks fall October 24, 2008 - 5:06pm

NEW YORK (AP) - Gold prices briefly plunged to a 21-month low Friday as world stock markets plunged, puzzling some analysts who believe the traditional safe-haven asset should be soaring amid the economic turmoil.

Gold clawed back into positive territory later in the day, but prices are still down about 20 percent since the start of the month as fears of a global recession drag down the value of commodities from crude oil to corn. The declines have raised questions among investors about whether gold has given up its long-held claim as a safe alternative investment.

"Gold has not been benefiting from the flight to quality like we would have thought," said Matt Zeman, head trader at LaSalle Futures in Chicago. "People aren't stepping up and buying it."
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=589604

Here is an interesting one (imo)
UN urges 'drastic' action to help banks and poor
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1504118

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