Eeyore's Important News and Views Special Report

Economy and Hurricane Updates

You need to be paying attention to what is happening, around the World.
Japan and England
Adding to the gloom was a grim warning from Nokia, the world's largest mobile phones manufacturer, which said it expects to lose market share in the third quarter as sales slide. In London the FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell 121.4 points to 5240.7, its worst week since July 2002, falling just shy of 400 points over the course of five trading days. In the UK, there is growing evidence that the economy is sliding into recession. The housing market has ground to a halt, with prices tumbling 12.7% in August, the biggest annual fall since records began in the early 80s, according to Britain's largest mortgage lender Halifax. Unemployment has risen by 70,000 so far this year and consumer confidence is at an all-time low. Wall Street opened around 40 points lower this afternoon on the back of the jobs data, and was more than 80 points down by the time the London market closed. On Thursday, an unexpected increase in US jobless claims and weak retail sales for August sent US shares tumbling to their worst session in more than two months, with the Dow Jones falling 3%, or 344.65 points, leaving it back in bear market territory. In Asia overnight, Japan's benchmark Nikkei index fell 2.8%, or 345.43 points, to 12,212.23, a five-and-a-half month low, while Hong Kong's benchmark Hang Seng index dropped 3.1% to 19,752.65, the lowest level in a year. The broader Topix index in Japan lost 2.6% to 1,170.84. The yen soared to a 13-month high against the euro as investors, spooked by the sharp fall in stock markets, fled risky positions such as leveraged carry trades - positions funded by borrowing yen at lower rates to buy higher-yielding currencies or commodities. The euro fell to ¥150.60. "This is not a flight to quality, it is simply a flight," said Alan Ruskin, chief international strategist at RBS Greenwich Capital. http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/sep/05/marketturmoil.economicgrowth

And here is one about China
Central Bank Drops $4Bln to Prop Ruble 05 September 2008 By Toni Vorobyova, Andrey Ostroukh / Reuters The Central Bank stepped into the market and sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to brake the ruble's fall, while shares went into free-fall despite a much-awaited shareholder peace deal on oil company TNK-BP. The ruble fell as low as 30.41, its lowest since the current composition of the basket was set at 55 cents and 45 euro cents in February 2007. The benchmark RTS Index closed 3.94 percent lower, at 1,526.57, less than a point above the intraday low that marked the index's weakest level this year. The RTS has not seen levels this low since October 2006. Falling Western markets and fears that capital outflows could accelerate outweighed a long-awaited end to a conflict between BP and its local partners, which had played out in the international media and poisoned sentiment. "It is easier to undermine investor trust than it is to revive it," said Alexander Orlov, head of research at Da Vinci Capital Management. The ruble's move took its combined losses for the last two days to around 60 kopeks, or 2 percent. That appeared to galvanize the Central Bank into its first major intervention since it sold an estimated $12 million to $13 billion in two days during the height of Russia's military conflict with Georgia last month. "The move from a fixed-currency regime to a more flexible one is part of the Central Bank's long-term strategy," said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based analyst at UniCredit.

And here is Russia
Central Bank Drops $4Bln to Prop Ruble 05 September 2008 By Toni Vorobyova, Andrey Ostroukh / Reuters The Central Bank stepped into the market and sold up to $4 billion on Thursday to brake the ruble's fall, while shares went into free-fall despite a much-awaited shareholder peace deal on oil company TNK-BP. The ruble fell as low as 30.41, its lowest since the current composition of the basket was set at 55 cents and 45 euro cents in February 2007. The benchmark RTS Index closed 3.94 percent lower, at 1,526.57, less than a point above the intraday low that marked the index's weakest level this year. The RTS has not seen levels this low since October 2006. Falling Western markets and fears that capital outflows could accelerate outweighed a long-awaited end to a conflict between BP and its local partners, which had played out in the international media and poisoned sentiment. "It is easier to undermine investor trust than it is to revive it," said Alexander Orlov, head of research at Da Vinci Capital Management. The ruble's move took its combined losses for the last two days to around 60 kopeks, or 2 percent. That appeared to galvanize the Central Bank into its first major intervention since it sold an estimated $12 million to $13 billion in two days during the height of Russia's military conflict with Georgia last month. "The move from a fixed-currency regime to a more flexible one is part of the Central Bank's long-term strategy," said Vladimir Osakovsky, a Moscow-based analyst at UniCredit.Look what happened today to the markets after the take over of Freddie and Fannie Mae
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/370690.htm

US government takes on big role in mortgage market September 8, 2008 - 8:12am WASHINGTON (AP) - Uncle Sam has just become the 800 pound gorilla in the U.S. mortgage market. The Bush administration announced Sunday it was seizing troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a bid to help reverse a prolonged housing and credit crisis. But private analysts worried that it may not be enough to stabilize the slumping housing market given the glut of vacant homes for sale, rising foreclosures, rising unemployment and weak consumer confidence. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com predicted that 30-year mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.35 percent nationwide, could dip to close to 5.5 percent. That's because investors will be more willing to buy the debt issued by Fannie and Freddie _ and at lower rates _ since the federal government is now explicitly standing behind that debt. "Effectively, the federal government has now become the nation's mortgage lender," he said. "This takes a major financial threat off the table." Officials announced that both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were being placed in a government conservatorship, a move that could end up costing taxpayers billions of dollars. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson refused to estimate how much the takeover of the two companies will cost the government, but he insisted that taxpayers will get paid back first. "We structured this facility to protect the taxpayer," Paulson said Monday in an interview on the CBS Early Show. "The government will be repaid ... before the shareholders of these companies get a penny." In a separate appearance on CNBC, Paulson said "we obviously don't know" when asked how much the takeover could end up costing taxpayers. He said that will depend on how quickly the housing market turns around. The plan touched off a global stock rally Monday. Japan's Nikkei stock average jumped 3.4 percent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 4.3 percent. In morning trading, Britain's FTSE 100 jumped 3.81 percent, Germany's DAX index rose 3.21 percent, and France's CAC-40 surged 4.44 percent. U.S. stock futures pointed to a huge rally, jumping more than 2 percent ahead of Monday's open in New York. The companies, which together own or guarantee about $5 trillion in home loans, about half the nation's total, have lost $14 billion in the last year and are likely to pile up billions more in losses until the housing market begins to recover. The Treasury Department said it was prepared to put up as much as $100 billion over time in each of the companies if needed to keep them from going broke, in exchange for senior preferred stock. Treasury will immediately be issued $1 billion of such stock from each company, which will pay 10 percent interest. Further purchases of preferred stock will be triggered if quarterly audits find that the companies' capital cushion is below prudent standards. The government, which will receive warrants representing ownership stakes of 79.9 percent in each company, is hoping that its moves will reassure nervous investors that they can continue to buy the debt of the two companies. In a statement, President Bush said, "Americans should be confident that the actions taken today will strengthen our ability to weather the housing correction and are critical to returning the economy to stronger sustained growth."http://wtop.com/?nid=111&sid=1438603

Does anyone think it is a good idea, that the Government now hold the mortgage on over half the homes in the US? Does anyone think it is a good idea that the World is so interconnected?

Something to watch for in the future
The Banks’ Next Hot Zone: Home Equity Delinquencies
By Elizabeth MacDonald
Delinquencies on home equity loans and lines of credit are at their highest levels in a decade.That should give Wall Street and investors pause. Because when home equity borrowers, default on their lines of credit, bankers don’t have first recourse to the underlying property, the home. Mortgage bankers who own the mortgage on the home do. That’s why bankers are growing ashen-white over looming losses, and why they are scrambling to fix this problem now.
The numbers are staggering. Borrowers had outstanding $1.12 tn of home equity loans this year, virtually the same amount in the fourth quarter of 2007.
The American Bankers Association recently said the percentage of home equity lines of credit more than 30 days past due rose to 1.10 % during the first quarter, the highest since 1997, though still lower than bank card delinquencies which hit 4.51 %, slightly above the five year average delinquency rate of 4.40 %. The number of home equity lines more than a month past due is 55% above the average since the American Bankers Association began tracking it around 1990; delinquencies on home equity loans are 45% higher.
Sluggish personal income growth, plunging home equity, job losses and a rocky stock market, as well as soaring food and energy prices, are partly to blame for the spike in delinquencies.
Over the past two decades, value of home equity loan balances outstanding soared to more than $1 tn from just $1 bn. One in four homeowners have a home equity line of credit, and banks have made huge sums of money on them due to fat fees, returns that are a quarter or 50% higher than regular consumer loans.
Lenders are to blame for recasting these loans as borrowings that really didn’t seem to be backed by their most important investment, their homes, caling these loans “equity access” or as a Citigroup campaign called it, take a home equity loan and “Live Richly” or as Fleet Bank once advertised it, “”The smartest place to borrow? Your place.” All glammed up ways to essentially hock your house.
Bank exposure to home equity lines/loans are a major problem is huge. At last look, Wells Fargo (WFC: 31.20, +1.53, +5.15%) had $84 bn of them on their portfolio. In late 2007, Wells Fargo hived off $12 bn in home-equity loans in a separate portfolio to prepare them for liquidation. Bank of America (BAC: 32.23, +1.63, +5.32%), Wachovia (WB: 16.75, +1.22, +7.85%) and JPMorgan Chase have frozen borrowers’ access to home equity lines or changed the terms to cut their potential home equity exposure, The Financial Times reports.
National City (NCC: 4.82, +0.03, +0.62%), the US bank that has been among the hardest hit by the subprime crisis, is trying to cut its exposure to the riskiest category of home loans by offering customers cash to close their untapped home equity lines, the Financial Times reported.
If the scheme is successful, analysts say other banks could follow suit, choosing to spend money now to avoid taking on more exposure to the US housing slump.
The bank’s initiative, which was launched at the end of July, encourages National City customers to surrender their unused home equity lines by waiving the $350 fee it would normally charge for closing the line and by writing customers a $200 check. The idea here is to avoid future losses on lines or home equity loans that go belly up by enticing borrowers to bail out of them early with cash. The question for banks is, will this be a help in getting their own houses in order, and, for borrowers, is it worth taking the money and running?
Finally, the losses don’t just stop on the loans and lines of credit themselves. They also will take a bite out of bonds backed by these borrowings.
Moody’s Investors Service issued a report recently that said losses on prime home-equity loans, also called second mortgages, repackaged into bonds, vintage 2007, will climb to 17% on average. Home equity backed bonds from 2006 will rise to 13%, and 6% for 2005.
For home-equity lines of credit, 2007 bond losses will rise to 26 %, Moody’s said. For 2006, losses on securities will increase to 24 %, while losses for 2005 “vintage” bonds will reach 9%.
http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2008/09/04/the-banks-next-hot-zone-home-equity-delinquencies/

Ike blasts Turks and Caicos as Category 4 storm Sunday September 7, 8:16 am ET By Ben Fox, Associated Press Writer
People 'holding on for life' as Hurricane Ike hits islands, threat to Haiti, Florida, Cuba
PROVIDENCIALES, Turks and Caicos (AP) -- Hurricane Ike damaged most of the homes on Grand Turk island as it roared onto the Bahamas, raked Haiti's flooded cities with driving rain and threatened the Florida Keys on its way to Cuba as a ferocious Category 4 storm Sunday.

Grand Turk, the capital of Turks and Caicos, is home to about 3,000 people, and has little natural protection from the sea and expected storm surge of up to 18 feet (5.5 meters). Rain was driving through in horizontal sheets early Sunday and wind was tearing through some roofs. It was too early to know of any deaths or injuries.

Cuba, which just suffered a devastating hit from Category 4 Hurricane Gustav, was directly in Ike's projected path. The government warned people to be ready to take emergency action.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080907/tropical_weather.html?.v=2

Today about Ike

Hurricane Ike weakens to Cat. 2 storm over Cuba September 8, 2008 - 5:42am
MIAMI (AP) - The National Hurricane Center says Hurricane Ike has weakened to Category 2 storm as it moves over Cuba.
Meanwhile, a tropical storm warning was issued early Monday for the Florida Keys.
As of 5 a.m. EDT, Ike had maximum sustained winds near 105 mph. And forecasters expect further weakening as the hurricane moves over central Cuba on Monday.
The hurricane is centered about 40 miles east-southeast of Camaguey, Cuba, and moving west near 15 mph.
http://wtop.com/?nid=104&sid=1136424

Eeyore's important news and views

Some struggling homeowners find way to dodge foreclosure
By Stephanie Armour, USA TODAY
At night, Margaret Jones would lie in bed, unable to sleep, her heart galloping.
Each time she came home, she feared the worst: a padlock on her door and a sign declaring her home in foreclosure. She was months behind on her adjustable-rate mortgage, which she'd become unable to pay as the rate climbed from 7% in 2004 to 12% this year. Her three-bedroom house, she was told, would be auctioned on July 1.
"My blood pressure was through the roof," says Jones, 45, a nurse in North Lauderdale, Fla. "I can see why some people commit suicide. You just want it to go away."
But the worst never happened. Rescued by a hardship loan and a mortgage-modification plan, Jones managed to stave off foreclosure and save her house.
Though the number of homeowners facing or going through foreclosure has surged — filings rose 55% from July 2007 to July this year — thousands of other homeowners on the verge of losing their homes are finding last-minute ways to ward off foreclosure. These tales have become the little-known success stories of the worst housing slump in decades. For a smattering of today's distressed homeowners, last-ditch remedies intended to stem the damage have saved the day.
Jones took out a $26,000 hardship loan from her 401(k) to pay off much of what she owed. She also managed to get her mortgage modified by calling a hotline for a credit-counseling organization, Money Management International. (The agency is part of the Homeownership Preservation Foundation, which oversees counselors and runs a hotline with Hope Now, an industry-sponsored alliance to help troubled homeowners.)
Jones' monthly mortgage bill dropped from $3,000 to about $1,800, and her interest rate is down to a fixed rate of 7.4%. She'll pay her first lower monthly payment in October.
"Now, I have peace of mind," says Jones, a mother of five whose husband, Deryck, is unemployed. "I can eat. I'm no longer afraid of the knock on the door or the sign on the front lawn. It's changed me. Now, I will send my payments in ahead of time. I may lose my water, my light, but I won't lose the roof over my head."
Those who have managed to save their homes remain a small fraction of people at risk of losing their properties. One in every 464 U.S. households received a foreclosure filing in July, according to RealtyTrac. More than 2.2 million foreclosure filings were reported during 2007, up 75% from 2006. The number of homes in some stage of foreclosure was up 79%, indicating that some properties may have just entered the initial stage in 2007 and could be completing the foreclosure process in 2008.
Hope for some
Still, the number who have benefited from assistance programs is believed to reach into the hundreds of thousands. Hope Now says it completed more than 181,000 mortgage workouts in June alone for loans that would otherwise have gone into foreclosure.
In the second quarter of 2008, mortgage servicers finished more than 522,000 workouts. That doesn't include homeowners who have worked out loan modifications on their own with lenders or those who received counseling or financial aid from charitable groups that aren't part of the alliance.
Some of the options that have helped distressed homeowners include:
•Lenders agreeing to repayment plans for homeowners behind on their mortgage. The lenders might, for example, agree to tack delinquent payments onto the end of a home loan.
•Lenders changing from an adjustable rate to a lower fixed rate. Many borrowers have taken on subprime loans, which go to those with shaky credit. Those loans often carry rates that increase after an initial fixed rate, and borrowers have frequently fallen behind when the payments rise. About 14% of subprime loans are in default, according to the Center for Responsible Lending.
•Lenders have also allowed some borrowers to temporarily pay less than the full amount of their monthly payment. This is a rarer option. It's usually done in cases of an unexpected financial emergency, such as a health crisis.
In other cases, homeowners on the financial brink are taking second jobs or finding newer, more lucrative jobs. Some are renting out rooms to tenants.
But research shows that a majority of homeowners on the financial precipice don't know all the options available to them to stave off foreclosure. Fifty-seven percent of borrowers who are late on their mortgage payments are unaware of foreclosure alternatives offered by their lenders, according to a survey by Freddie Mac and marketing research firm Roper Public Affairs & Media. That represents a slight improvement from 2005, when the survey found that 61% of delinquent borrowers didn't know their mortgage lender offered workout options.
Some lenders say that rescuing a homeowner from foreclosure isn't always a possibility, though there are cases where it can work. Russell Izzo, chief operating officer at the American Modification Agency in Uniondale, N.Y., says, "Options are limited but greater than many understand."
His company represents borrowers in renegotiating the terms of mortgage loans. "Some lenders are friendly, and some are more adversarial," Izzo notes.
While some critics might consider assistance for distressed homeowners an unjustified bailout, Izzo says many of those facing foreclosure have simply met bad luck or made one-time financial mistakes.
"They're honest, tax-paying people," he says. "These are not the overreaching speculator. Some may have gotten sick or lost a job."
At Mortgage Network, a Danvers, Mass.-based independent mortgage company, some customers are so overjoyed at loan modifications that they've sent bottles of wine or thank-you cards. "We look at each deal individually," says Brian Koss, managing director of Mortgage Network. Lenders are willing to work out modifications, he says, because, "You can't carry too many bad loans.
"If people can sit down, and we can look at them as people and find some middle ground, it can be worked out," Koss says.
That's what happened for Benjamin MacArthur, 46, of Burke, Vt., who suffered severe injuries in a car accident in February 2006. MacArthur, who owned a property management company, was barely able to work after the accident, and his wife was unemployed. They soon fell behind on their mortgage payments.
In 2008, he and his wife divorced and decided to sell their home. They listed their 56-acre farm house at $315,000, below its appraised value of $360,000, but couldn't sell it in the depressed housing climate. They feared they would soon face foreclosure, which, among other things, would mar their credit records.
But Mortgage Network agreed to work with them to avoid a foreclosure. In the spring of this year, Mortgage Network agreed to take "a deed in lieu of foreclosure." In doing so, the MacArthurs signed the house over to the bank and were able to walk away. The lender forgave all unpaid debt.
"I was shocked — we don't have a foreclosure on our credit," says MacArthur, who now lives with his girlfriend and golden retriever, Bo. "It was a great relief. They came and sat with us personally at our dining room table to work things out. We didn't want to have to go through foreclosure, and we didn't have to."
Even so, for the majority of homeowners facing foreclosure, efforts to save properties from bank takeovers are typically met with frustration, with many lenders remaining reluctant to renegotiate mortgages. Some lenders are simply overwhelmed with requests. Sometimes, loans have been resold, and borrowers struggle to find the right contact to initiate any negotiations.
In other cases, home buyers have gotten so far over their heads that there's no realistic way to bail them out. Some economists and advocacy groups argue that current assistance programs aren't nearly enough to help the legions of homeowners in trouble.
"Hope Now has been helpful, but it's getting completely overwhelmed by the magnitude of the problem," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com.
Getting a lift
Jess Alfaro didn't know where to go. Like tens of thousands of homeowners hit by the devastating housing slump, Alfaro had fallen behind on his mortgage payments and was facing possible foreclosure.
His situation seemed bleak. In September of last year, Alfaro, 45, of Pueblo, Colo., was earning barely $500 a month doing odd jobs such as landscaping and stucco repair, and his wife, Della, was on disability. The couple scrimped to make their $660 monthly mortgage, living on Ramen noodles, rice and beans.
They had lived in their three-bedroom house for 19 years, raised three children, and enjoyed their fenced yard with abundant room for their two pit bulls. They didn't want to leave.
He called his local Catholic Charities for help. (Catholic Charities USA is a private network of more than 1,700 Catholic social service agencies and institutions nationwide.) Counselors at Catholic Charities of Pueblo spoke with his mortgage company, which agreed to add the unpaid mortgage payments to the end of his mortgage. Alfaro also found a higher-paying job as a school custodian.
A year ago, the family was on the brink of foreclosure. Today, they're up to date on their mortgage and other bills.
"We were in danger of losing our house, and we were stressed out," Alfaro says. "My wife was crying a lot and not sleeping, but I never gave up. Now, there's a big calm in our house. We're getting along better, we're a lot less stressed about money, and we even bought some odds and ends for the house. I am living my life so peaceful and happy now."
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2008-09-02-foreclosure-keep-home_N.htm

A very good source of vitamins and easy to store and eat, for emergencies
Plumpy'nut is a high protein and high energy peanut-based paste in a foil wrapper. It tastes slightly sweeter than peanut butter. It is categorized by the WHO as a Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food (RUTF).
Plumpy’nut requires no preparation or special supervision, making it easy to deploy in difficult conditions. Plumpy'nut is very difficult to over eat and keeps even after opening. It has a 2 year shelf life when unopened. The product was inspired by the popular Nutella spread. It is manufactured by Nutriset, a French company, that specializes in making food supplements for relief work in their factory near Rouen in northern France. The ingredients are: peanut paste, vegetable oil, milk powder, powdered sugar, vitamins and minerals, combined in a foil pouch. Each pack provides 500 Kcal or 2.1 MJ. [1].
Plumpy'Nut contains vitamins A, B-complex, C, D, E and K, and minerals calcium, phosphorus, potassium, magnesium, zinc, copper, iron, iodine, sodium, and selenium.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plumpy'nut

Another we never learn from history moments
Talks resume on US-India nuclear technology deal
Originally published 07:02 a.m., September 4, 2008,
VIENNA, AUSTRIA (AP) - A senior U.S. official says he sees "steady progress" in talks under way in Vienna on a deal that would let the United States sell peaceful nuclear technology to India.
U.S. undersecretary of state for political affairs William Burns has told reporters that Washington believes giving New Delhi access to nuclear fuel and technology would actually strengthen _ and not undermine _ nonproliferation efforts.
Burns says a second round of contentious talks that resumed Thursday are "making steady progress," and he says the U.S. remains optimistic that a deal can be reached.
The talks were convened by the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the global body that governs the legal trade in nuclear materials.
Several small nations are trying to block the deal.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/04/talks-resume-on-us-india-nuclear-technology-dea-1/

World's strongest hurricanes could be getting stronger
By Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
The strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean have become more intense due to global warming over the past 25 years, according to a new study in Wednesday's edition of the British journal Nature. The findings add fuel to the simmering argument in the meteorological community about the Earth's changing climate, and its relationship to the power of tropical systems worldwide.
Scientists from Florida State University and the University of Wisconsin-Madison analyzed satellite data from nearly 2,000 tropical cyclones around the world from 1981 to 2006, and found that the strongest storms are getting stronger, especially over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.
Tropical cyclones are the umbrella term for hurricanes (in the Atlantic and east Pacific), typhoons (in the West Pacific) and cyclones (in the Indian).
"As seas warm, the ocean has more energy that can be converted to tropical cyclone wind," FSU professor of geography and study lead author James B. Elsner explained.
Elsner's team found that wind speeds for the strongest hurricanes increased from an average of 140 mph in 1981 to 156 mph in 2006, while the average global sea-surface temperature — as measured in all regions where tropical cyclones form — increased from 82.8 degrees to 83.3 degrees during those 25 years. The authors calculated that this increase in ocean temperature results in a 31% increase in the global frequency of strong cyclones from 13 to 17 per year.
All of the world's tropical basins showed this pattern, with the exception of the South Pacific Ocean. Also, there was no noticeable uptick in the intensity of weaker hurricanes, however.
"By creating a better, more consistent historical data set, we've been able to weed out quality issues that introduce a lot of uncertainty," said research scientist James Kossin of the U. of Wisconsin. "Then, by looking only at the strongest tropical cyclones, where the relationship between storms and climate is most pronounced, we are able to observe the increasing trends in storm intensity that both the theory and models say should be there."
National Hurricane Center scientist Christopher Landsea, who has questioned the link between a warming world and a rise in the number and intensity of hurricanes, said that while the paper's statistical methodology is excellent, he doubted its conclusion because he thinks the data is flawed. He questions the data for Indian Ocean storms before 1997, when there weren't as many satellites watching the storms, and in the way the scientists used the data for the most extreme winds.
Additionally, Landsea said the Atlantic is in a multi-decade period of heightened hurricane activity due to natural climatic cycles. The current active era began in the mid-90s. "This current paper cannot address this cyclic variability for the Atlantic, as it starts with data in 1981," he said.
"The paper has some elegantly calculated statistics, but these are generated on data that are not, in my opinion, reliable for examining how the strongest tropical cyclones have changed around the world," wrote Landsea in an e-mail.
Elsner does acknowledge that "we still do not have a complete understanding of why some cyclones intensify, sometimes quite rapidly, and others don't."
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/research/2008-09-03-hurricanes-warming-oceans_N.htm

More European tension
Cheney slams Russia for war against Georgia
TBILISI, Georgia (AP) — Demonstrating Washington's commitment to beleaguered Georgia, Vice President Cheney flew in Thursday and condemned Russia for what he called an "illegitimate, unilateral attempt" to redraw Georgia's borders by force.
Speaking during a closely watched trip to this U.S.-allied South Caucasus nation, Cheney also assured Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili that the United States was "fully committed" to his country's efforts to join NATO.
"Georgia will be in our alliance," Cheney said.
One of the U.S. administration's most hawkish figures and a longtime critic of Russia, Cheney was visiting three ex-Soviet republics that are nervous about Moscow's intentions — Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine.
His trip signaled to Moscow that the United States will continue to cultivate close ties with Georgia and its neighbors even after Russia showed it was not afraid to use its military against countries along its border.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/2008-09-04-cheney-georgia_N.htm

More on tools, you need to think low tech when you lose your electric. Here is an interesting aticle, hope you enjoy it.
Low-tech aid for poor Inventions that make life easier Vijaysree Venkatraman CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITORWednesday, September 3, 2008
For three weeks this summer, masons and mechanics, farmers and welders, scientists and a pastor threw themselves into creating low-tech solutions to big problems that persist across the globe. Converging at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, these 61 inventors from 20 countries divided into multilingual teams, each drafting and tinkering a device of the team's own making that may make life for the world's poor a little easier.
There was no grand prize to be won at this second annual International Development Design Summit (IDDS), but members sometimes skipped meals and stayed up late - sawing, hammering and welding - to perfect and build their designs.
Soon, their prototypes will be rebuilt and refined in the developing world by artisans using locally available materials, and ultimately they will be tested by consumers who live on less than $1 a day.
The 10 teams constructed a wide variety of devices - from an inexpensive incubator for low-birth-weight babies to a rope system that could help craftswomen in the Himalayas get their products to market. Here are three of the inventions that emerged from this year's IDDS:
Each summer, Americans fire up their charcoal grills for outdoor barbecues. In many developing countries, charcoal is an everyday fuel used with indoor kitchen stoves, but the smoke-flavored food carries a health risk. Charcoal is not clean-burning, and one IDDS team says the resultant indoor pollution has been linked to deaths on the same scale globally as those caused by malaria and tuberculosis.
One way to make charcoal produce fewer emissions is to pulverize charred agricultural waste - such as corncobs or crushed sugar cane - and pack it into denser briquettes. A $2 metal press already is available for forming charcoal, says Jessica Vechakul, an engineer from MIT. What is missing in the market is a device to crush the burned cobs into powder - so her IDDS team decided to build one.
Their prototype looks like an oversized mouse trap with a hand crank. The user spins the crank and feeds the blackened cobs through a hopper. The grinder drops the powder into a container, where it's mixed with other ingredients into a cookie-dough consistency for briquettes. The simple contraption can crush 6 pounds of cobs in 10 minutes.
Now people who make charcoal from corncobs stomp on bags of burned cobs or beat the sacks with heavy sticks. When they empty the bags, the worker is engulfed momentarily in a black cloud, inhaling the dust, Ms. Vechakul says. Also, after a few stomping sessions, the bags must be replaced - a recurring expense.
"It is one messy job," Ms. Vechakul says.
Bernard Kiwia, a bike mechanic from Tanzania, will take his team's design to his home country. There, his job will be to persuade rural communities to use the hand-cranked device instead of cutting down trees for fuel.
This alternative fuel from agricultural waste might be cheap overall, but, as some rural poor see it, wood costs nothing but time and effort, Mr. Kiwia says. Unless they understand the huge environmental cost of regularly chopping down trees, those in the countryside have little incentive to switch to a cleaner fuel, he says. Getting the target audience to invest in the IDDS device appears to be the toughest part of the design game.
Video-game cartridges from the 1980s may strike some as quaint relics from an eight-bit era, but one IDDS team sought to convert the outmoded systems into an inexpensive learning tool for children in developing countries.
Computers are prohibitively expensive for many in developing nations, but televisions are common and could work as a platform for educational games, says Derek Lomas, the design team leader.
Earlier this year in Bangalore, India, Mr. Lomas strolled through a bazaar and noticed an educational video-game system based on the Japanese Nintendo Famicom, for which patents have run out. On a lark, he bought the set for $12.50. The generic system came with two game cartridges, a keyboard and a couple of controllers.
The cheap TV-based computer got his IDDS team brainstorming.
Facilities in Ghanaian public high schools are significantly lacking compared with those in private schools, says teammate and Ghanaian pastor George Fuachie. Some cleverly designed educational software with reasonable price tags could give disadvantaged youngsters much-needed help and computer training.
Off the shelf, this rudimentary computer can run a graphic user interface with a mouse and has some built-in programming capability. The team's job is to design software appropriate for the classroom.
"It can run eight-bit games like Oregon Trail, Lemonade Stand ... and Number Munchers, which I enjoyed playing as a kid," Mr. Lomas says.
Eventually, students could create their own locally relevant games on this system. Imagine children in Africa playing ethnic board games such as Mancala - or a regional variation - on a television screen, he says.
The team researched hardware modifications to the TV-computer that will enable users to connect to text-only Internet sites - and they declare it doable. Within a month, they also assembled a software development kit that makes it easier for open-source developers to produce new games and educational content for the system.
Going from the design concept to a commercial product is the task that lies ahead. When that happens, Mr. Lomas can consider his $12.50 investment a decent bargain.
Globally, 1.6 billion people have no access to electricity and use fuel lamps or stay in darkness every night. Going about their daytime chores - pumping water, grinding dough or getting around on bicycles - these off-the-grid people physically exert themselves to run machines.
One IDDS team worked on a bit of modern alchemy - converting mechanical energy from everyday labor into stored electrical energy. Few consumers will labor away to generate electrical power.
"But if the effort is incidental as they go about some regular task, people don't seem to mind putting in that extra 10 percent," says Jay Pagnis, a mechanical engineering student from India.
His team focused on treadle pumps - foot-operated devices used to irrigate farmland in Asia and Africa. Many country farmers step on and off these StairMaster-like contraptions to pump water for an average of four hours a day.
The team's generator attachment fits in a wooden frame and hooks the pump's treadle to a turning wheel, which charges a couple of store-bought batteries. After the day's work, a farmer can unhook the rechargeable batteries and use the power to light a 5-watt compact fluorescent lamp - the equivalent of a regular 25-watt incandescent lamp - for four hours, Mr. Pagnis says.
CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR A team at this summer's International Development Design Summit at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology works on learning games that can be used with television sets, common in Third World countries, instead of computers. The team members (from the left) are Miguel Chaves from Brazil, Derek Lomas from the United States, William McIver from Canada, the Rev. George Fuachie from Ghana, Jesse Austin Brenemen from the United States and Anuj Nanavati from India.
It may not seem like much, but this lighting is more efficient compared with the kerosene lamps currently in use in such places, says teammate Suprio Das, an Indian electrical engineer. What's more, this setup can pay for itself in six months, they say. If it breaks down, the mechanism is simple enough to be repaired by a local bike mechanic.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/03/low-tech-aid-for-poor/

2nd Admendment, Health Risks-E coli, Hurricane update, politics, Russian Expansionism, Science

Hanna, Ike and Josephine move toward USA
By Oren Dorell, USA TODAY
People living along the coast of the Southeast crowded stores for plywood and batteries as Tropical Storm Hanna headed toward Florida.
The tropical storm was due to hit the Bahamas today with 65 mph winds up to 10 inches of rain, said Corey Walton, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasts show it strengthening to a Category 1, on a scale of 1-5, with winds of up to 95 mph and traveling along the eastern coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, she said.
"Right now that whole area could be a potential landfall, but we don't know where exactly that will be," she said.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Ike, which is expected to become a hurricane today, and Tropical Storm Josephine are lined up behind Hanna. And more tropical storms could be on the way, said Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University's Tropical Meteorology Project.
"We've never really bought plywood, but it seemed like maybe we'd better do it this time," said Janey Miley, 43, at Home Depot in Savannah, Ga.
Miley had also booked hotel reservations in Columbia, S.C., in case her family needed to evacuate.
Governors and emergency management officials in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia have activated their emergency operations centers and issued warnings to residents to watch and prepare for Hanna.
"Even if the storm does not make landfall in Georgia, tropical storm Hanna may bring extensive flooding, tornadoes and power outages," said Charley English, director of the Georgia Emergency Management Agency.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/hurricane/2008-09-02-hanna_N.htm

Update on Ike
Forecasters: Ike strengthens into major hurricane September 3, 2008 - 7:59pm
MIAMI (AP) - Forecasters say Ike has become a dangerous Category 3 hurricane in the Atlantic with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph.
That makes Ike the third major hurricane of the Atlantic season, which has had five hurricanes total. Bertha and Gustav were the other major hurricanes.
(You can read the complete story here)
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=104&sid=1136424

Putin vows 'an answer' to NATO ships near Georgia September 2, 2008 - 3:31pm
By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV Associated Press Writer
MOSCOW (AP) - Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that Russia will respond calmly to an increase in NATO ships in the Black Sea in the aftermath of the short war with Georgia, but promised that "there will be an answer."
Meanwhile, President Dmitry Medvedev sternly warned the West that it would lose more than Moscow would if it tried to punish Russia with sanctions over the war with Georgia.
Russia has repeatedly complained that NATO has too many warships in the Black Sea. Foreign Ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said Tuesday that currently there are two U.S., one Polish, one Spanish and one German ship there.
"We don't understand what American ships are doing on the Georgian shores, but this is a question of taste, it's a decision by our American colleagues," Putin reportedly said. "The second question is why the humanitarian aid is being delivered on naval vessels armed with the newest rocket systems."
Russia's reaction to NATO ships "will be calm, without any sort of hysteria. But of course, there will be an answer," Interfax quoted Putin as saying during a visit to Uzbekistan.
Asked by exactly what measures Russia would take in response to NATO ships in the Black Sea, Putin was quoted as answering, "You'll see."
As if to emphasize the country's strength _ its control over a growing percentage of European energy supplies _ Putin traveled to Uzbekistan to announce a deal that would tighten Russia's hand on Central Asian energy exports to the West.
In an interview with Italy's RAI television broadcast Tuesday, Medvedev said that Russia doesn't fear expulsion from the Group of Eight leading industrialized nations.
"The G-8 will be practically unable to function without Russia, because it can make decisions only if they reflect the opinion of top global economies and leading political players of the world," Medvedev said. "That's why we don't fear being expelled from the G-8."
Presidential candidate John McCain is among those who called for Russia's expulsion from the elite club of the world's richest countries.
Medvedev also warned that NATO would suffer more than Russia if its ties with Moscow were severed.
"We don't see anything dramatic or difficult about suspending our relations if that's the wish of our partners," Medvedev said. "But I think that our partners will lose more from that."
NATO nations depend on Russia as a transit route for supplies going to the alliance's troops in Afghanistan.
At a summit Monday, the European Union issued a declaration saying Russia was violating the terms of its cease-fire with Georgia. It warned that talks on a political and economic agreement with the Kremlin would be postponed unless Russian troops pulled back from positions in Georgia.
Britain and eastern European nations held out for a tougher line, but Europe's dependence on Russian oil and natural gas deterred stronger sanctions.
Russia supplies the EU with a third of its oil and 40 percent of its natural gas _ a dependence that the EU's administrative body says will rise significantly in the future.
Putin announced Tuesday that Russia and Uzbekistan will build a new natural gas pipeline that will pump Turkmen and Uzbek gas into Russia's pipeline system, which Russia will re-export to Europe.
The project, which has been under discussions for several months, will strengthen Moscow's hold over Central Asian gas and undermine Western-backed efforts for a rival trans-Caspian route.
___
Associated Press writers Mansur Mirovalev and Mike Eckel in Moscow and Constant Brand in Brussels, Belgium, contributed to this report.
http://www.wtop.com/?nid=105&sid=1367816

Gun sales start Tuesday September 3, 2008 - 11:03am WASHINGTON - District residents will be able to buy handguns starting next Tuesday. The District began registering handguns in mid-July in response to a Supreme Court ruling that overturned the city's long time ban. But, as of last month, only 11 handguns had been registered. The low number could be because there was no way for residents to buy a handgun and get it transferred into the city. That's about to change. "I do think the numbers will go up some once you can purchase in the District," says D.C. Police Chief Cathy Lanier. "I don't think it's going to skyrocket." Because there are no gun stores in the city, residents have been unable to purchase a handgun. The guns registered so far have either been illegal guns that were registered under the amnesty program or guns that were being stored out-of-state. Federal law requires that guns purchased out-of-state be shipped from the dealer who sells the gun to another dealer in the state where the buyer is going to register the weapon. Charles Sykes, the only licensed firearms dealer in the District willing to transfer handguns for individuals, tells WTOP his office in Anacostia will be open for business next week. Sykes says he will be charging a $125 fee to transfer each handgun. Gun stores in Maryland and Virginia charge as little as $25 for the same service. Sykes says he gets between one to two calls a day about transferring guns. Sykes has been transferring handguns for security firms in the city for years, but had to have his license and permits renewed after he moved his office. Traci Hughes, a spokesperson for the Metropolitan Police Department, says that process is complete and Sykes can begin transferring guns anytime. "He is fully licensed by the ATF and the District," writes Hughes. http://www.wtop.com/?nid=695&sid=1471352

Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a CenturyMichael Asher (Blog) - September 1, 2008 8:11 AM
The record-setting surface of the sun. A full month has gone by without a single spot (Source: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO))
Sunspot activity of the past decade. Over the past year, SIDC has continually revised its predictions downward (Source: Solar Influences Data Center)
Geomagnetic solar activity for the past two decades. The recent drop corresponds to the decline in sunspots. (Source: Anthony Watts)
A chart of sunspot activity showing two prior solar minima, along with heightened activity during the 20th century (Source: Wikimedia Commons)Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth.
The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted.
The event is significant as many climatologists now believe solar magnetic activity – which determines the number of sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth.
According to data from Mount Wilson Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot data has been collected since 1749.
When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle begins.
But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all astronomers by surprise.
In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion.
The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial.
The paper's lead author, William Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory well. He says he will be "secretly pleased" if his predictions come to pass.
But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. One was large enough to be called a "mini ice age". For a society dependent on agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases.
Meteorologist Anthony Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the "sun's dynamo" is idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate.
This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's "SKY" experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently published a book on the theory, says the relationship is a larger factor in climate change than greenhouse gases.
Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more complex than "more rays equals more clouds". Usoskin, who notes the sun has been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand it fully.
Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood.
What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen again. Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as Mount Wilson Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on which center you believe, August was a record for either a full century, or only 50 years.
http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+Century/article12823.htm
Big Government Is a High-Stakes Affair
By ERNEST S. CHRISTIAN and BILL FRENZELAugust 30, 2008; Page A9
The 2008 election is shaping up to be an extraordinarily high-risk affair. Consider, for example, the risk that Republican losses in the Senate might give Democrats control over both houses of Congress, with unstoppably large majorities. And on top of that, consider the risk that Barack Obama will win the White House with an open-ended mandate for radical but unspecified change.
Who is Sen. Obama, and what would he do with an open-ended mandate? Except for his own media-packaged self-description, the voters still have relatively little to go on.
Mr. Obama's sparse legislative record suggests that he is at the very least a high-tax, big-spending liberal. On the broad issues of the social contract -- those involving personal freedom, America's status in the world, and the role of government versus markets in allocating resources -- he might become the most left-wing, collectivist-minded person ever to be president.
The stakes are so high in this presidential election for a fundamental reason that doesn't get discussed nearly enough: The federal government is so large and powerful. In particular, any aggressive president and Congress acting together have it in their legal authority -- under our presently elasticized Constitution -- to exercise near complete control over the economy. A long line of judge-made law since the Supreme Court's New Deal era decision in Wickard v. Filburn (1942) says there is almost no limit, under the commerce clause of the Constitution, to the regulatory reach of the federal government.
Thus, a united president and Congress can, as a practical matter, do all or any of the following (plus much more): take your money and give it to someone else; tell businesses what to produce and sell, who to hire and what wages to pay; set all commodity, wholesale and retail prices; control all energy supplies, communication networks and financial markets; replace all private health-care with a government system; prescribe the curriculum for all schools; determine which students get a slot in elite universities; diminish political and other speech; and enroll all citizens above the age of 17 either in the military or in civilian corps for periodic instruction and service. Children could be required to spend the summer in government "youth" camps.
Obama or no Obama, alarm bells about the size and scope of government should have been going off for years, but weren't. They may yet, in November -- after it is too late.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122005098970184843.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

E. coli outbreak in Oklahoma kills 1, sickens 200 September 2, 2008 - 6:04pm By SEAN MURPHY Associated Press Writer OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - An E. coli outbreak linked to a restaurant in northeastern Oklahoma has sickened more than 200 people and killed at least one person, state health officials said Tuesday. The Country Cottage restaurant in Locust Grove has been closed voluntarily for more than a week, but an exact source of the contamination has not been pinpointed, state epidemiologist Dr. Kristy Bradley said in a statement. "The complexity of this outbreak and the necessity to be extremely thorough in our investigation means we still have more questions than answers," she said. The state is testing food preparation and serving surfaces at the restaurant and interviewing those who became ill, Bradley said. Health officials first reported the outbreak Aug. 25. The state Health Department said Tuesday that 206 people have become sick, including 53 children. Those sickened range in age from 2 months to 88 years. The outbreak has been blamed for the death of 26-year-old Chad Ingle of Pryor, who died Aug. 24, a week after eating at the restaurant. A spokeswoman for the family that runs the restaurant has described the owners as distraught. A message on the restaurant's answering machine says, "We have decided to voluntarily remain closed today so we can continue working closely with the state Health Department." Symptoms of E. coli infection include stomach cramps and bloody diarrhea. Most of those who die have weak immune systems, such as the elderly or very young. Sheila Beaver, a Locust Grove woman whose family ate at Country Cottage on Aug. 19, said she took her 19-month-old daughter, Braylee Beaver, to the hospital nearly a week later after she developed a fever and severe diarrhea. Beaver criticized state health officials for not shutting down the restaurant after the first illnesses were reported to the health department on Aug. 22. Even after a surprise inspection Aug. 23 that identified nine health code violations, the restaurant remained open Aug. 24, the day Ingle died. "Once there were so many people who were sick that had eaten at Country Cottage, I think they should have at least shut it down," Beaver said. "When it's people's lives at stake, they should shut things down. This is a serious disease." But Leslea Bennett-Webb, a spokeswoman for the state health department, said that even after officials were notified Aug. 22 of an outbreak, there was little hard evidence to present to the public. "There was nothing evident on the inspection that would have linked immediately to a major outbreak," Bennett-Webb said. Braylee Beaver ate chicken fried steak, mashed potatoes with gravy and corn from her father's plate, her mother said, but the little girl was the only one who became seriously ill. The girl also at ice cream from the restaurant. She was placed on 24-hour dialysis for three days last week and remains hospitalized in Oklahoma City. "It's been an emotional roller coaster, and I've cried a lot," Beaver said Tuesday from her daughter's hospital room, noting that the little girl was wary of the doctors trying to help her. "When they were poking her, she kept saying 'I'm sorry,'" Beaver said. "It was really hard." Locust Grove is a community of 1,500 about 50 miles east of Tulsa. http://wtop.com/?nid=106&sid=1411380

Catching Wild Pigs
A chemistry professor in a large college had some exchange students in the class. One day while the class was in the lab the Professor noticed one young man (exchange student) who kept rubbing his back, and stretching as if his back hurt. The professor asked the young man what was the matter. The student told him he had a bullet lodged in his back. He had been shot while fighting communists in his native country who were trying to overthrow his country's government and install a new communist government. In the midst of his story he looked at the professor and asked a strange question. He asked, 'Do you know how to catch wild pigs?' The professor thought it was a joke and asked for the punch line. The young man said this was no joke. 'You catch wild pigs by finding a suitable place in the woods and putting corn on the ground. The pigs find it and begin to come everyday to eat the free corn. When they are used to coming every day, you put a fence down one side of the place where they are used to coming. When they get used to the fence, they begin to eat the corn again and you put up another side of the fence. They get used to that and start to eat again. You continue until you have all four sides of the fence up with a gate in The last side. The pigs, who are used to the free corn, start to come through the gate to eat, you slam the gate on them and catch the whole herd. Suddenly the wild pigs have lost their freedom. They run around and around inside the fence, but they are caught. Soon they go back to eating the free corn. They are so used to it that they have forgotten how to forage in the woods for themselves, so they accept their captivity. The young man then told the professor that is exactly what he sees happening to America . The government keeps pushing us toward socialism and keeps spreading the free corn out in the form of programs such as supplemental income, tax credit for unearned income, tobacco subsidies, dairy subsidies, payments not to plant crops (CRP), welfare, medicine, drugs, etc.. While we continually lose our freedoms -- just a little at a time. One should always remember: There is no such thing as a free lunch! Also, a politician will never provide a service for you cheaper than you can do it yourself. Also, if you see that all of this wonderful government 'help' is a problem confronting the future of democracy in America , you might want to send this on to your friends. If you think the free ride is essential to your way of life then you will probably delete this email, but God help you when the gate slams shut! In this 'very important' election year, listen closely to what the candidates are promising you !! Just maybe you will be able to tell who is about to slam the gate on America .
'A government big enough to give you everything you want, is big enough to take away everything you have.' - Thomas Jefferson

Follow up on Gustav, not s big or as strong as they feared which is good. But still costly.

Gustav damages estimated near $10B September 2, 2008 - 6:01pm
By The Associated Press
(AP) - LIGHT PUNCH: Insured losses caused by Hurricane Gustav are estimated to be between $4 billion and $10 billion, far less than Hurricane Katrina's $41 billion toll.
DARK DAYS: More than 1 million customers lack power, mostly in Louisiana, and it will likely be several days before electricity is restored.
RETAIL EYES OPPORTUNITY: Home Depot and Lowe's send truckloads of generators, chain saws and other supplies for Gulf Coast residents' return.

Gustav evacuees urged to stay away
NEW ORLEANS, Louisiana (CNN) -- Hurricane Gustav didn't pack the wallop of Katrina three years earlier, officials said Monday, but they urged almost 2 million evacuees to stay away from the Gulf Coast for another day.
A man walks past a storefront that collapsed as Hurricane Gustav passed through Lafayette, Louisiana, on Monday.
"Tomorrow is not a day to start coming back to the city of New Orleans," Mayor Ray Nagin said Monday night.
"Power lines are down all over the city; there's a significant number of homes and businesses that are without power," Nagin said.
Still, he said, Gustav didn't do the damage feared a few days ago, a possible repeat of 2005's Hurricane Katrina.
"I'd probably call Gustav, instead of the mother of all storms, maybe the mother-in-law or the ugly sister of all storms," Nagin said.
Across Louisiana, more than 800,000 people were without electricity, and some may not see it restored for two weeks or more, Gov. Bobby Jindal said.
At a news conference with Jindal, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff urged Gulf Coast residents who evacuated to stay away until damage could be assessed.
But even those who fled faced hardships. About 2,700 people who took up short-term residence Monday in the Louisiana State University Agriculture Center in Alexandria were told that the buildings generator power was not reaching the plumbing system, meaning no showers and no flushing toilets, said John Barnett, head of the facilities.
"It's really crowded, and everybody's just trying to do their best," said Kesha Harlow, who was there with her daughter, 8, and her son, 2 months. "We're just waiting for the storm to blow over."
Gustav roared from the Gulf of Mexico into southern Louisiana on Monday as a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph, bringing fierce winds and heavy rains from the Alabama-Florida border west into Texas.
In Baton Rouge, Louisiana, two people were killed when a tree fell on the house where they were staying after they had come from farther south to escape the storm, officials said. A man was killed in a similar incident in north Lafayette, Louisiana, officials said.
Four hospice patients died while waiting for air ambulances to evacuate them from southern Louisiana, according to Richard Zuschlag, chairman and CEO of Acadian Ambulance.
Gustav was blamed for more than 60 deaths in the Caribbean, including 51 in southwestern Haiti.
At 10 p.m. CT, Gustav was a tropical storm with sustained winds of 60 mph, the National Hurricane Center said.
In New Orleans, Gustav drove sheets of water over the protective levees around the Industrial Canal early Monday afternoon, but the walls appeared to hold up under the onslaught as the winds faded.
Up to 6 feet of water spilled into an industrial park in the Upper 9th Ward late Monday morning, pouring through small gaps in the concrete flood walls before receding in the afternoon. Watch water spill over the levee »
But as the storm eased, inspectors from the Army Corps of Engineers and parish levee boards went out to check on the earthen walls and have found nothing to raise alarm, said Col. Craig Gunter, a Corps of Engineers spokesman. iReport.com: See one reader's footage of the levee
"The levees all held up," Nagin said. "I was hoping that this would happen, that we would be able to stand before America and before everyone and say we had some success with the levee system."
With the water level in Lake Pontchartrain north of the city rising, the Army Corps of Engineers closed flood gates on the 17th Street Canal and the London Avenue Canal, two areas that caused some of the more severe flooding during Katrina.
Official feared late Monday afternoon that a private levee south of New Orleans was in danger of failing, but water levels receded, and sandbagging efforts appeared to have paid off.
"We have stopped the bleeding, and I am very encouraged by what we are seeing," Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser said of the levee in Braithwaite.
Gustav made landfall Monday morning near the coastal town of Cocodrie, Louisiana, about 80 miles southwest of New Orleans. iReport: Watch winds rip New Orleans rooftop
The storm's eastern bands, which generally pack the most powerful winds, also hammered Mississippi as Gustav moved to the west of New Orleans.
In Biloxi, Mississippi, iReporter Kevin Wise, who lives two blocks from the beach, said Gustav had pushed the Gulf waters into a highway about 100 yards from the normal shoreline.
"On the beach, it was blowing hard enough that you had to squat down to take a picture; it could pretty much throw you around," he said. Wise said he and his wife ignored mandatory evacuation orders for his area.
Almost 2 million residents evacuated the Louisiana coast, but some in New Orleans opted to brave the storm.
"It really didn't look as vicious as, obviously, Katrina did," Jack Bosma said. Watch gales batter home, reporter »
He said the wind scattered his back gate across his yard, but his power was on, and neighbors had been congregating on his porch.
"It's really, quite honestly, basically, just like a bad storm. It doesn't seem that drastic at all," he said.
Property damage from Gustav could total $8 billion, just 25 percent of Sunday's estimate, according to a federally supported computer projection issued Monday morning. See damage map »
Meanwhile, forecasters said late Monday that Hurricane Hanna was nearly stationary in the Bahamas. At 11 p.m. ET, Hanna had maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, making it a Category 1 storm.
Hanna could make landfall Friday near the Georgia/South Carolina border, possibly as a Category 2 storm with winds of 100 mph.
And in the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Ike formed Monday with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. It was headed toward the Bahamas
http://www.cnn.com/2008/US/weather/09/01/gustav/index.html

Here is a water generator might not be for everyone, but with electricity you have water. I will follow up in a few weeks with a more complete water on Saturday on or regular Prep Talk.
The EcoloBlue™ 28 requires no set-up and comes ready to make water right out of the box. Just plug it in and this revolutionary machine begins making fresh water...up to 7 gallons* in 24 hours! It requires no water source other than the humidity in the air. Each gallon of water uses, on average, $0.20 cents of electricity to produce. That's about $1.00 for every five gallons of water! Compare that to the $10 or $12 it costs per 5 gallons from a water delivery service. Start saving money today! Order an EcoloBlue™ 28 today and say "hello" to water independence and substantial savings on your monthly drinking water bills. Comes in silver, red, white, blue, black and green. One year warranty
http://www.ecoloblue.com/homeoffice.html?location=feature_link

Here are two snippets about the economy. The links below if you find it interesting you might want to go to the links listed below.
Many retired Americans are becoming engulfed in consumer debt and filing for bankruptcy as a result. One report shows that people 55 and older are filing for bankruptcy protection 12 percent more than they did 13 years ago and that they currently account for 22 percent of all bankruptcy filings in the United States.
How do senior citizens who have always paid their bills on time and taken pride in having pristine credit records get to the point that they need bankruptcy protection?
Well, rising health care costs and expensive prescription drugs are partly to blame. The expenses add up, quickly depleting savings accounts and forcing the elderly to run up credit card bills to pay for life's essentials. Many seniors simply thought their retirement could be financed on their Social Security and have learned the hard way that they did not adequately plan ahead. Some retirees are drained financially by their adult children who still need a helping hand, and others fall into financial ruins when their spouses pass away.
http://www.totalbankruptcy.com/bankruptcy_articles_senior_bankruptcy.htm
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25804814/
Here is one article and link that says why it is a bad idea to do it. Again go to the link for the whole aricle. It is a little dated but has good info.
Why it may be a bad idea for retired people to file for personal bankruptcy
Posted on Thursday, September 21, 2006
Every month I meet with a number of people in Kitchener who are retired, and have more debt than they can handle, and they want to know if they should file for personal bankruptcy.Retired residents of Kitchener on a fixed income are in a difficult position. They worked their entire lives, but now find themselves on a reduced income. The cost of living increases faster than their fixed income pensions, and they find it hard to keep up. They use their credit cards to pay the bills, and after a few years they have accumulated more debt than they can ever hope to repay.I always start these meetings by explaining their options. They can start by asking family for help, which is usually a difficult decision. They can sell off any assets they no longer need, such as a car they don't drive, or a house that is larger than they need.
http://www.bankruptcy-kitchener.com/blog/2006/09/why-it-may-be-bad-idea-for-retired.html

Oil price of $100 a barrel on horizon
By Javier Blas and Carola Hoyos in London and Michael Mackenzie in New York
Published: September 2 2008 20:17 Last updated: September 3 2008 00:03
Oil prices sank to a five-month low of just more than $105 a barrel on Tuesday as traders turned their sights on signs that slower growth was spreading beyond the US into Europe, Japan and even emerging markets.
The fall led some analysts to suggest that oil prices could move back below $100 a barrel, a level not seen since March, after fears that US oil supplies could be severely disrupted by hurricane Gustav proved unfounded.
“With the fear of Gustav now gone, a downside ‘speed bump’ will have effectively been removed as far as crude oil prices are concerned, and we expect values to start tracking lower once again,” said Edward Meir, of MF Global in New York.
The slide in oil prices could be short-lived in the light of Iran stepping up efforts to persuade fellow Opec members to cut output when they meet in Vienna next week.
Iran, one of the more influential members of the group and traditionally a price hawk, wants countries to cut output to previously agreed limits to remove supplies left on the market after falls in demand.
If the other 12 members of Opec agree with Iran, this would reduce world oil supply of almost 88m barrels a day by between 500,000 and 1m barrels, probably from October.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/92664318-7921-11dd-9d0c-000077b07658.html

Here is Gutav's three day tract.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W_sm2+gif/090254W_sm.gif

Gustav weakens, closes in on Louisiana coastline September 1, 2008 - 10:02am
The downtown streets of New Orleans are deserted as Hurricane Gustav approaches on Monday, Sept. 1, 2008. (AP Photo/Gerald Weaver)
By MICHAEL KUNZELMAN and MARY FOSTER Associated Press Writer
NEW ORLEANS (AP) - A weakened Hurricane Gustav closed in on flood-prone coastal Louisiana Monday, bringing punishing wind and sheets of rain. But the storm veered away from New Orleans, where only a few holdouts and those that refused to abandon Bourbon Street remained.
Gusts snapped large branches from the majestic oak trees that form a canopy over St. Charles Avenue. Tens of thousands were without power in New Orleans and other low-lying parishes, but officials said backup generators were keeping city drainage pumps in service.
As a nervous nation watched to see if Gustav would deliver another Katrina-style hit on the partially rebuilt city, officials steadfastly insisted three years of planning and infrastructure upgrades had prepared them for whatever was to come.
"We don't expect the loss of life, certainly, that we saw in Katrina," Federal Emergency Management Agency Deputy Director Harvey E. Johnson told The Associated Press. "But we are expecting a lot of homes to be damaged, a lot of infrastructure to be flooded, and damaged severely."
On the high ground in the French Quarter, nasty winds whipped signs and the purple, green and gold Mardi Gras flags hanging from cast-iron balconies. Like the rest of the city, the Quarter's normally boisterous streets were deserted save for a police officer standing watch every few blocks and a few early-morning drinkers in the city's famous bars.
"We wanted to be part of a historic event," said Benton Love, 30, stood outside Johnny White's Sports Bar with a whiskey and Diet Coke. "We knew Johnny White's would be the place to be. We'll probably switch to water about 10 o'clock, sober up, and see if we can help out."
FEMA estimated there were only about 10,000 people left in the city, and the state said about 100,000 remained on the coast. Nearly 2 million people answered the call to leave south Louisiana in the days before Gustav's arrival, a massive evacuation effort designed to avoid the nearly 1,600 deaths suffered when Hurricane Katrina struck an unprepared Gulf Coast in 2005.
New Orleans police superintendent Warren Riley said there had been no reports of looting or calls for rescue. The Superdome was locked up and city officials stuck to their pledge not to open a shelter of last resort. Public officials sternly warned in the days leading up to the storm that anyone leaving their homes after a dawn-to-dusk curfew was imposed would be swiftly thrown behind bars.
"We're determined to keep this city safe for our people," he said.
Evacuees watched television coverage from shelters and hotel rooms hundreds of miles away, praying the powerful Category 2 storm and its 115-mph winds would pass without the exacting Katrina's toll.
"We're nervous, but we just have to keep trusting in God that we don't get the water again," said Lyndon Guidry, who hit the road for Florida just a few months after he was able to return to his home in New Orleans. "We just have to put our faith in God."
Harmonica player J.D. Hill said he was standing in line Monday morning to get into a public shelter in Bossier City in northwest Louisiana after waiting on a state-provided evacuation bus that carried him to safety.
Hill was the first resident of the Musicians' Village, a cluster of homes Harry Connick Jr. and fellow New Orleans musician Branford Marsalis built through Habitat for Humanity after Hurricane Katrina. The village provides affordable housing for musicians and others who lost their homes in Katrina's flooding.
He described a frustrating scene outside the shelter, where elderly evacuees and young children had to wait to be searched and processed before going inside.
"There's the funky bus bathrooms, people can't sleep, we're not being told anything. We're at their mercy," he said.
Gustav killed at least 94 people as it tore through the Caribbean before moving into the oil-rich Gulf. Billions of dollars were at stake, as Gustav threatened industries ranging from sugar to shipping. If production is significantly interrupted from the region's refineries and offshore oil and gas platforms, price spikes could hit all Americans at the pump.
Officials promised they were ready to respond this time. Johnson said FEMA had stockpiled enough food, water, ice and other supplies to take care of 1 million victims for three days. Also in place were high-water vehicles, helicopters and fixed-wing planes, plus Coast Guard cutters and a Navy vessel that is essentially a floating emergency room.
"It's amazing. It makes me feel really good that so many people are saying, 'We as Americans, we as the world, have to get this right this time,'" New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said. "We cannot afford to screw up again."
Even presidential politics bowed to the storm, as the Republican Party scaled back its convention plans in deference to Gustav's threat. Battered by criticism that the government's response to Katrina was inadequate, President Bush scrapped his Monday appearance at the convention and instead headed to Texas to monitor the storm.
Gustav weakened Monday to a Category 2 storm as its eyewall rolled onto land. Katrina made landfall as a strong Category 3, which has sustained winds of between 111 mph and 130 mph.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the storm's center was located about 85 miles south of New Orleans and was moving northwest at 16 mph. It had top sustained winds of 110 mph.
The city of Franklin, about 100 miles west of New Orleans, was bracing for a direct hit if Gustav stays on its current track. Dozens of sheriff's deputies, along with state troopers and guardsmen, waited at an emergency operations center inside the courthouse.
"We don't rely on backup. If it comes, great, but we don't trust the federal government. They can never get it quite right," said state Rep. Sam Jones.
He estimated that at least three-quarters of the city's roughly 9,000 residents evacuated. For good reason: Three years ago, Hurricane Rita flooded up to 200 homes in the city.
In Plaquemines Parish, south of New Orleans, officials built an emergency levee to prevent flooding along a highway that runs along the Mississippi River, sheriff's spokesman Maj. John Marie said.
But it was extremely quiet. "It's really remarkable, we got almost everybody out," he said.
In New Orleans, officials were anxiously watching to see what kind of storm surge the city would face: If forecasts hold, the city could experience a storm surge of only 4 to 6 feet, compared to a surge of 10 to 14 feet at the site of landfall, said Corey Walton, a hurricane support meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center.
Katrina, by comparison, brought a storm surge of 25 feet, causing levees to break. While the Army Corps of Engineers has shored up some of the city's levee system since then, fears this time center on the city's West Bank, where levee repairs have not been completed.
Gustav was the seventh named storm in the Atlantic hurricane season. The eighth, Tropical Storm Hanna, was strengthening about 100 miles from the Bahamas. Though a storm's track and intensity are difficult to predict days in advance, long-term projections showed the storm could come ashore along the border of Georgia and South Carolina late in the week.
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http://wtop.com/?nid=104&sid=1467434

95,000 in N.O. without power

NEW ORLEANS - The metro New Orleans area was holding up pretty well just after 8 a.m. today as Hurricane Gustav moves inland.
"At this time, it seems like everything's holding up," said New Orleans Police Department public information officer Gary Flot.
In Jefferson Parish nearby, thus far it is "so far so good," said Deano Bonano, the parish's chief of homeland security.
About 95,000 customers are without power, Bonano said, but the pumps are working at full capacity and there are no major flooding problems to this point.
The big question, he said, is what happens after Gustav's eye wall passes where the storm surge is more of a threat on the back end.

http://www.2theadvocate.com/news/27733779.html